Ivan Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KEYW.shtml

[chris_fit]

I think thats somewhat to the left of where I think it will go.

[Raebie]

Hey, I'm a '85 grad.

Go Boilers!

[Anonymous]

Derek.... too far right J/k

[LowMug]

From the looks of the WV loop, I don't see how the ridge can build to the west for much longer. It might be enough to save Miami though...if it holds.

totally concur...this is going to be a Charley track or a stall and then who knows where

[Patrick99]

I'm looking at the NW Atlantic WV loop too. The westward expansion of the ridge appears to have hit a bit of a brick wall. It actually looks as if it hit that wall, and then nosed south a little.

[tronbunny]

That's still Tallahassee...
I agree with Chris.

Derek, my amateur synoptics analysis still have you to the left.

http://www.aboutmylife.net/users/chris_fit

[Ixolib]

Derek.... too far right J/k

Floyd - how far right might you consider his forecast to be?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I don't know if this fits your bill of a cyclonic motion around mountains, but it looks rather odd.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197906.asp

[Derek Ortt]

graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html


This forecast is RIGHT of NOGAPS, CMC, near UKMET, and right of GFDN (version of GFDL we probably should be using)

[LowMug]

I'm looking at the NW Atlantic WV loop too. The westward expansion of the ridge appears to have hit a bit of a brick wall. It actually looks as if it hit that wall, and then nosed south a little.

it has...

[calidoug]

He'll shift right some more in the morning...

The trend is your friend...

[Sean in New Orleans]

graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html


This forecast is RIGHT of NOGAPS, CMC, near UKMET, and right of GFDN (version of GFDL we probably should be using)

I'm with you on this, but west about 75 miles...I'm thinking Pensacola to Panama City landfall at this time.

[B-Bear]

Question for you Derek: You made a lot of emphasis in your forecast regarding how dangerous this situation might be for the Keys, yet you track Ivan fairly well west of the Keys. Is your degree of confidence in the track not that high as of yet?

[Derek Ortt]

there has been a large windfield so this track would likely bring hurricane force winds to the keys, along with a destructive storm surge

[NJCane]

May I ask what you think about the hurricane models indicating some type of NNE motion at some point and more importantly the Euro's solution which has been consistent for 6 runs in a row now with a south FL to Carolinas event. This is important because the Euro nailed Charley and Frances when the other models screamed a different solution. Thoughts on the low in the eastern Atlantic and its impact? I am not bashing, merely trying to get your thoughts on some of this other substantial model info

[sea oat]

If that storm were to go into Appalachicola Bay and i'm on the west side in Fort Walton Beach or Destin, how much damage would I see from a cat 5 storm? I've only been through cat 3's here, i.e. Eloise, Opal, etc.

Thank you for any input.

[huricanwatcher]

skirt the keys and up the east coast........ imo...

[quickychick]

Youch. No playing around this time.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Derek,

An observation and a question. I think you are like the NHC in that as the trends verfiy, and synoptics line up you shift your track. My question is what would be the data that would shift your track more east after the next 6 hr data set?