Ivan Advisories

huricanwatcher · #2661 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:42 pm

shelters closed....... they all gettin outta dodge......

yoda · #2662 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:42 pm

Yes, big OUCH there.

Derek Ortt · #2663 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:43 pm

The Euro was so bad with Charley that a blindfolded chimp would have done better. I am still waiting for the Galveston landfall. I don't even consider the Euro model.

The hurricane models are based off of the GFS; therefore, I have set them aside since I have some questions regarding the GFS initial conditions

TLHR · #2664 Postby **TLHR** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:45 pm

There is still a lot of debris left over from Charley and Frances.
The ground is super-saturated.
I would prepare for this storm from Key West to Bangor Maine.

#2665 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:46 pm

I can't recall this type of evac. notice in the Keys. The Keys natives must be fuming -- but they have to GO!

NJCane · #2666 Postby **NJCane** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:51 pm

The Galveston landfall was only a couple runs, then after that, the landfall was nailed. More importantly, it nailed Frances almost down to the street while most other models moved north. This is 6 runs in a row and it follows the GFS to some degree. I find it tough to argue with models that are obviously initiallizing the low in the east Atlantic well if you look at the water vapor. You very well could be right, but I find it hard to believe that you discount two models that are designed to handle mid latitude systems and it is mid latitude systems that will be steering this hurricane.

#2667 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:52 pm

Wow....they're not messing around now. That tells me that they're pretty certain it's going to hit the Keys because they don't generally have a mandatory evac. for all of the Keys....

#2668 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:55 pm

Yes, apparently they are taking the "slight move to the right" forecast very seriously. My family in Punta Gorda are coming here this weekend -- they've had enough! Of course, so have we :cry:

after Frances.

Our county was bumper-to-bumper traffic going north today and we're 1 1/2 hours N. of Tampa Bay!

huricanwatcher · #2669 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:57 pm

think everyone can feel it coming in there bones.... (I know silly but.... )

AL Chili Pepper · #2670 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:57 pm

I think it was either MWatkins or Derecho that pointed out how Frances was initialized badly in the Euro.....

#2671 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:58 pm

You may be right huricanwatcher...you may be right....it sure isn't looking good for us down this way... :roll:

#2672 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:59 pm

Well, maybe after getting hit by 3 -- Bonnie, Charley and Frances --- one develops a 6th sense? :roll:

#2673 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

This forecast is RIGHT of NOGAPS, CMC, near UKMET, and right of GFDN (version of GFDL we probably should be using)

I hope you keep on going further right with each forecast. Hopefully you'll have your track out to sea over the Atlantic.

Anyway I'll buy into your forecast track, as matter fact I'll buy into any reasonable forecast. I can't believe we still have several more days of waiting. I personally would like to see him pick up speed and get it over with. The Ivan story is getting old quickly. Is it Florida or not?

RonStallcup · #2674 Postby **RonStallcup** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:00 pm

If the storm hits near Mobile, Ala., Pensacola would have major damage.

We have many long bridges over waterways.

If it hit at it's current strength, I fear chunks of the bridges would fall in the water.

This would mean over 50-mile detours with little gas.

If the storm hits Tallassee, this area would have less damage.

#2675 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:01 pm

My prayers are with y'all in South Florida -- and us farther north, too, of course!

#2676 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:03 pm

TY Dixie - I think we all need to pray for all Floridians at this point.... what a season it's been so far...geez....

Guest · #2677 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:04 pm

My sister lives in the keys, she just bought a 35,000 dollar boat. She's coming back to North Carolina for the evac please pray for her on a safe trip.

Ixolib · #2678 Postby **Ixolib** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:04 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Well, maybe after getting hit by 3 -- Bonnie, Charley and Frances --- one develops a 6th sense?

I see hurricanes... They're everywhere... They don't even know they're hurricanes... :wink:

quickychick · #2679 Postby **quickychick** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:06 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:TY Dixie - I think we all need to pray for all Floridians at this point.... what a season it's been so far...geez.... :)

I've heard it said that hurricanes are one example of Mother Nature's way of rejuvenating herself.

Kinda seems like Florida's getting a facelift with a sandblaster, though. Overkill. Good luck, Jamaica, Cuba, and....

canegrl04 · #2680 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:08 pm

Tonight he said we are looking at a Charley scenario setting up,maybe people as far away as Mobile,AL will have to watch this :eek:

Ivan Advisories

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