Ivan Advisories
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Going to the Mainland!
I have an aunt down there that was born and riased in Key West, one of her sons is having to bring her to the mainland kicking and screamimg. Most Conchs don't want to leave their homes behind. It took a bit of coaxing but she is leaving in the morning like they are telling her too. Thank goodness she is leaving this time. Wish she had just flown up my way. My heart goes out to all of you living south of GA you have had it rough and you all sure could use a break!
Anyway, glad they are closing everything down and making folks move out. Even if a hurricane moves through the middle of the Keys, Key West is cut off from the rest of the world. I know that after Andrew a lot of supplies came off of the cruise ships to help the folks living up and down the Keys. Since Andrew, there are a lot more things set up to keep Key West a bit independent. Hopefully even the most hard headed conch leaves this time!
Anyway, glad they are closing everything down and making folks move out. Even if a hurricane moves through the middle of the Keys, Key West is cut off from the rest of the world. I know that after Andrew a lot of supplies came off of the cruise ships to help the folks living up and down the Keys. Since Andrew, there are a lot more things set up to keep Key West a bit independent. Hopefully even the most hard headed conch leaves this time!
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they are always about 12 hours behind becuase with them being probably the number one weather source for the "average american" (as in someone who is not as interested in weather as all of us on this board) they cant afford to be wrong...so they delay their info to make sure it verifys
...just a guess
...just a guess
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I don't like these models one bit. All but one show it going across Florida much like Charley and swinging back to the north (possibly over water). If this thing hit Florida as a cat three or higher, that means serious problems not just for Florida, but the entire Southeast coast. Thank god Charley diminished by the time it came back in, but I'm afraid of this one doing a sweep all the way up through southern Georgia and (yes I'm going to say it) the Carolinas and then doing a Frances all over North Carolina, Virginia and on up.
Where the heck are people going to evacuate to??? Everyone just go ahead and plan to go to Tennessee?
Where the heck are people going to evacuate to??? Everyone just go ahead and plan to go to Tennessee?
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Re: Where is Ivan going? In English please.
Deana Cuevas wrote:I feel like i'm stupid. I'm new to this site. I love it. It is just hard to follow alot of this. I'm in Tampa can anyone just tell me straight up what's happening. Please! oh and incase you are wondering I don't which weather station to trust they all say different things. It sounds like alot of the people in here really now whats going on.
Welcome to Storm2K, Deana!
First and foremost Deana, you aren't stupid. It can be very complicated. Really all we know right now is that Jamaica, the Caymans and Cuba are in Ivan's sights. Jamaica moreso than the other two at the moment. Unfortunately, most of the models do have Ivan making an impact on Florida.

There is always the chance that Ivan may take another track, one away from Florida. Thats what every reasonable person hopes for, certainly I do.
My advice is to keep abreast of developments on Ivan by staying current with the National Hurricane Center's advisories and discussions. Its all on their website. Be sure you are hurricane ready, at least to the greatest extent possible given the situation in Florida right now following Charley and Frances. Listen to and heed advice given by your local emergency management agency. Read the forecasts and discussions on your local Tampa NWS website. They are informative and will keep you up-to-date with the latest conditions and possible watches/warnings. The government websites are there for public use. Use them. And of course, keep reading and posting at Storm2K. There are plenty of professional mets, met students (like me!) and wx enthusiasts to add to the discussions and stay informed with everything we can get our hands on. Its a valuable resource, especially in times like this.
Janie
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STEVE LYONS...
Why does everyone dog on Dr. Steve Lyons...oh what is that before his name...it is a Dr. which stands for a Doctorate...which stands for alot of years in school...which stands for expertise...not to mention he used to be a forecaster at the Tropical Prediction Center...
He understands that the TPC is the be all to end all on tropical weather and therefore follows their guidance...the TWC understands that the HPC is the be all to end all on USA forecasts and therefore follow there guidance...
The Weather Channel is "cheesy" but Dr. Steve Lyons has a responsibility and he holds to it...oh yeah did I mention he is a DOCTOR IN THE FIELD OF METEOROLOGY...what are all of us
He understands that the TPC is the be all to end all on tropical weather and therefore follows their guidance...the TWC understands that the HPC is the be all to end all on USA forecasts and therefore follow there guidance...
The Weather Channel is "cheesy" but Dr. Steve Lyons has a responsibility and he holds to it...oh yeah did I mention he is a DOCTOR IN THE FIELD OF METEOROLOGY...what are all of us
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I likely wont be doing the 15Z forecast tomorrow, that's likely cangialosi forecast
If we get data showing a shift to the east is in order, then we will shift to the east. However, if UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC and GFDN go even farther left, we may have to go back. I do not want to have flip flopping forecasts, as they tend to cause even more confusion
If we get data showing a shift to the east is in order, then we will shift to the east. However, if UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC and GFDN go even farther left, we may have to go back. I do not want to have flip flopping forecasts, as they tend to cause even more confusion
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Evening Ivan analysis/ forecast
Hurricane Ivan remains an extremely dangerous hurricane moving toward Jamaica this evening.....and is a record hurricane for the central Caribbean. Hurricane Allen wasn't this intense south of Haiti...neither were Gilbert or Janet.
That fact is a great source of concern....this hurricane didn't weaken as it passed near the north coast of Venezuela the other night when it should have. It deepened rapidly over the central Caribbean...as opposed to Allen which weakened south of Hispanola.
In 1988, hurricane Gilbert slowly strengthened while passing south of Hispanola, but didn't explosively deepen until AFTER passing over Jamaica as a 110 kt (960 mb) cat-3.
I wish I had some good news, but in all honestly I don't. Ivan is likely to become even more intense as it passes west-northwest of Jamaica (and may well be at cat-5 intensity as it approaches that island nation). I'm forecasting 150 kts (170 mph) at landfall in Cuba...but looking at the forecast enviroment around Ivan, and the unnerving fact this monster hurricane is already close to cat-5 intensity...and it could be even more intense than I'm forecasting.
Where will it go? IMO near or over Jamaica...passing near the south coast is my forecast, then toward Cayman Brac, and then recurving over Cuba just east of Havana to near Key West and inland in the Naples/ Fort Myers area as a strong category 4 hurricane. Only the fact hurricane Charley passed over the coastal waters only a month ago, and lowered the TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) in those waters is giving me hope Ivan won't be a cat-5 in SW Florida. In the lower Keys however, a cat-5 hurricane is more likely...I'm forecasting a borderline cat-4/5 (155 mph).
Model guidance has also given me more concern today.....with the odds rising that hurricane Ivan will cross the Florida peninsula and emerge into the Atlantic....possibly still as a major hurricane, and with a second landfall somewhere in the Carolinas. I don't expect Ivan to accelerate up the east coast as hurricane Donna did in 1960, at least not at this time. It appears strong high pressure will build north of the hurricane as it passes near or inland over the Carolinas, slowing the hurricane and possibly turning it back toward the northwest or west (in the North Carolina/ Virginia/ mid-Atlantic states area)....which could mean a very serious flash flooding threat somewhere in that region (southeast to mid-Atlantic and Appalachians area).
Please take this hurricane seriously...it has the potential to be a historical storm. When I see normally conservative and calm chief meteorologists such as Ken Cook (WAGA-TV in Atlanta) warning folks in Atlanta to "call your friends and family members in the Florida Keys and tell them to leave...this isn't a hurricane to take lightly"
Here's my evening track forecast track:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts
That fact is a great source of concern....this hurricane didn't weaken as it passed near the north coast of Venezuela the other night when it should have. It deepened rapidly over the central Caribbean...as opposed to Allen which weakened south of Hispanola.
In 1988, hurricane Gilbert slowly strengthened while passing south of Hispanola, but didn't explosively deepen until AFTER passing over Jamaica as a 110 kt (960 mb) cat-3.
I wish I had some good news, but in all honestly I don't. Ivan is likely to become even more intense as it passes west-northwest of Jamaica (and may well be at cat-5 intensity as it approaches that island nation). I'm forecasting 150 kts (170 mph) at landfall in Cuba...but looking at the forecast enviroment around Ivan, and the unnerving fact this monster hurricane is already close to cat-5 intensity...and it could be even more intense than I'm forecasting.
Where will it go? IMO near or over Jamaica...passing near the south coast is my forecast, then toward Cayman Brac, and then recurving over Cuba just east of Havana to near Key West and inland in the Naples/ Fort Myers area as a strong category 4 hurricane. Only the fact hurricane Charley passed over the coastal waters only a month ago, and lowered the TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) in those waters is giving me hope Ivan won't be a cat-5 in SW Florida. In the lower Keys however, a cat-5 hurricane is more likely...I'm forecasting a borderline cat-4/5 (155 mph).
Model guidance has also given me more concern today.....with the odds rising that hurricane Ivan will cross the Florida peninsula and emerge into the Atlantic....possibly still as a major hurricane, and with a second landfall somewhere in the Carolinas. I don't expect Ivan to accelerate up the east coast as hurricane Donna did in 1960, at least not at this time. It appears strong high pressure will build north of the hurricane as it passes near or inland over the Carolinas, slowing the hurricane and possibly turning it back toward the northwest or west (in the North Carolina/ Virginia/ mid-Atlantic states area)....which could mean a very serious flash flooding threat somewhere in that region (southeast to mid-Atlantic and Appalachians area).
Please take this hurricane seriously...it has the potential to be a historical storm. When I see normally conservative and calm chief meteorologists such as Ken Cook (WAGA-TV in Atlanta) warning folks in Atlanta to "call your friends and family members in the Florida Keys and tell them to leave...this isn't a hurricane to take lightly"

Here's my evening track forecast track:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts
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Re: STEVE LYONS...
LowMug wrote:Why does everyone dog on Dr. Steve Lyons...oh what is that before his name...it is a Dr. which stands for a Doctorate...which stands for alot of years in school...which stands for expertise...not to mention he used to be a forecaster at the Tropical Prediction Center...
He understands that the TPC is the be all to end all on tropical weather and therefore follows their guidance...the TWC understands that the HPC is the be all to end all on USA forecasts and therefore follow there guidance...
The Weather Channel is "cheesy" but Dr. Steve Lyons has a responsibility and he holds to it...oh yeah did I mention he is a DOCTOR IN THE FIELD OF METEOROLOGY...what are all of us
people complain when he tows the nhc line and complain when he voices his opinion. he knows his stuff so put his opinion in the mix and stir it up
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Burn1 wrote:Watching the Weather Channel is like reading USA Today to get local
news.....Real generic and vanilla....I hate to sound harsh for any Weather Channel lovers but there are so many other and better sources
TWC used to be much better, though, than it is now. I think VANILLA is the term I've been looking for

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