Ivan Advisories

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logybogy

Is it just me or is Ivan tracking a bit more north?

#2721 Postby logybogy » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:35 pm

It could pass north of Jamaica if this keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Guest

#2722 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:35 pm

Hello everyone . answer this question for me. why do you have negative things to say about the experts at the nhc.twc.& accuweather ?You must be checking their sites or watching them on TV to make statements on what they have predicted so if you donot believe them why do you check it out???? Just a question
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jdray
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#2723 Postby jdray » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:36 pm

29.5N 83.0W is right in the Big Bend area of Florida.

Well north of Punta Gorda.
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c5Camille

#2724 Postby c5Camille » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:37 pm

it's just you...

looks 290 to 300 to me, my protractor
and my strait edge...
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yoda
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#2725 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:37 pm

It will be VERY close.. but depending if it passes north or south of the island will make a big difference in Ivan's futute path...
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Matthew5

#2726 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:38 pm

Yes very interesting...We will have to see :)
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calidoug
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Ivan's looking mean again... 1 more frame before the eclipse

#2727 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:38 pm

0315Z currently:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

EWRC almost done...
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mobilebay
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#2728 Postby mobilebay » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:39 pm

Watch recon fixes to judge movements, Not ir frame to frame.
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wxwatcher2
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#2729 Postby wxwatcher2 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:39 pm

Burn1 wrote:Watching the Weather Channel is like reading USA Today to get local
news.....Real generic and vanilla....I hate to sound harsh for any Weather Channel lovers but there are so many other and better sources


Much better sources for the internet but not on Cable TV.
TWC is it........
I agree with the generic weather comment.
They basicly just give you an overview of the general weather patterns.
Add in a pretty face and you have TWC
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Matthew5

#2730 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:40 pm

Yeah this hurricane is about ready to bomb with in the next 6 hours. Very bad for Jamaica!
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Guest

#2731 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:43 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Yeah this hurricane is about ready to bomb with in the next 6 hours. Very bad for Jamaica!


Why do you say this system is going to bomb???
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Storminole
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#2732 Postby Storminole » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:43 pm

If the 11 pm NHC tracks plays out as predicted, it means a direct hit for Tampa/St. Pete, especially the Pinellas County coastal area. No doubt also a big surge up into Tampa Bay as Ivan passes. If that happens, Charley and Frances will be remembered as mere warm-up drills for the big one yet to come.

Final landfall on this track seems to come in further north, around Cedar Key--an isolated Gulf outpost that's a quaint throwback to the days before developers ruled Florida. It's sad to think about Cedar Key taking a hit, but then I'm sure they've weathered many a storm in the past. In recent years though I can't remember anything menacing them since Elena surprisingly bounced away toward MS in 1985.
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#2733 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:46 pm

RECON indicated on its way out, that the ERC may have completed as they were leaving, but they also noted that another wind maxima on the northern semicircle has also begun, indicating that another ERC was about to take place ...

SF
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B-Bear
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#2734 Postby B-Bear » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:47 pm

It's a good discussion. There is one thing though that I'm not sure I agree with. I don't believe the mountains of Jamaica are significant enough--either in height or width--to destroy Ivan. They indeed could affect his intensity some, but I seriously doubt they have the ability to destroy him. In fact, if Ivan tracks along the southern edge of Jamaica, I doubt they will even disrupt his intensity much because his core is still rather compact.

Just my 2 cents. But, again, nice discussion.
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jacindc
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#2735 Postby jacindc » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:47 pm

Geez, Elena, I remember spending that weekend in Gainesville in 1985 waiting for the damn thing, and then she turned. (as you can imagine, college students far inland had quite the parties lined up)

And then I *really* was mad a few months later when Kate headed toward Tallahassee and nixed my trip up there to see R.E.M.!
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AL Chili Pepper
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#2737 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:53 pm

Dang....it's not gonna give an inch, is it?
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mobilebay
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#2738 Postby mobilebay » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:55 pm

Canadian holding steady. The new GFS for about the 5th straight run is more west and south through42 H.
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Sanibel
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#2739 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:00 pm

If you noticed, a larger red donut similar to the one from last night has reappeared. If I am interpreting this improvement in structure correctly we have no reason not to believe another increase up to category 5 hasn't commenced.

How this plays out in relation to Jamaica depends on several factors including environmental disruption or more frequent cycling. However, this behavior leaves open the possibility of an even stronger core about to enter an intensification phase. If Ivan follows previous behavior Jamaica could encounter the tail-end of a category 5 strengthening phase. I believe this present improvement would at least guarantee category 4 intensity as it crosses the island...
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Mister Popps
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#2740 Postby Mister Popps » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:02 pm

Cedar Key was affected by the 1993 storm of the century with storm surge.
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