Ivan Advisories

[Guest]

Cape_escape,

How are thing there now? What's the condition of buildings, trees, etc.???

[Anonymous]

Yep folks we've gotta keep an eye on the rest of the tropics........other storms could be brewing......


Tropical Depression TEN


000
WTNT45 KNHC 092037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES AS A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...INCREASINGLY REMOVED
FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER 200 NM AWAY AND SPREADING OVER
THE AZORES. SINCE THE LOW LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SWIRL ARE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY
EXIST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SUB 26C WATER.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE LOW CENTER HAS TURNED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A MOTION THAT WAS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO SOON. OF
THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...ONLY THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE AZORES...BUT THEY APPARENTLY HAVEN'T
NOTICED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY SHEARED OFF.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...OR IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM MET OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT21 EGRR.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 35.8N 33.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.2N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 10/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/0600Z 34.0N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/1800Z 33.5N 30.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1800Z...REMNANT LOW


$$

[crazycajuncane]

It has already destroyed Grenada, and right now poor Jamaica is in its sites. We all know it will strike again, and be powerful. After Jamaica, most likely Cuba. Huge miracles would need to occur for this not to happen. Disaster will happen, too bad it's going to begin again tomorrow.

And it's sad to think about those peoples lives after the storm. It's really a sad thing. If sheer were to develop, I'd pray for it to happen now!

[Shoshana]

Out to sea would be the best all around solution.

Wishing it to Mexico isn't very nice. They don't want Ivan either!

BTW ... as far as I remember, Gilbert went to Mexico then into Texas and Oklahoma. We don't want Ivan here either.

'shana

[~SirCane]

How can you possibly even think it would go to Mexico looking at the steering currents etc????

Dude-that was my far fetched idea. Like a 1% chance OR LESS. I don't think that's going to happen.

And I know what S. Florida is going through. The eye of 2 Hurricanes went over my home in 1995. Hurricanes Erin and Opal. That was a rough time.

[crazycajuncane]

Yep..... and action off the African coast. It just never stops does it?

[mobilebay]

I guess Mexicans don't mean Number 2 to you?

How about..... out to sea? I've seen models having it miss Flordia and out to sea.

Don't wish this 150 mph storm to go anywhere....... TO ANYONE.

I'm sorry, but it's just not right. Like many people have said.... American isn't the only land around. If it hits Mexico..... it's all good then?

\
There is now not one model that takes this out to sea. The gfs even puts it in the Gulf briefly. Note- No model that I have seen.

[mobilebay]

Ok. I messed the link up. Someone that can do this better than me please post it.

It's funny how no one replies to post when they refer to models taking Ivan more westward?

Yes they going with "if I ignore it it will go away".

[Wnghs2007]

Come on S. H. E. A. R. !!!!! It wont hear you unless you spell it right. LOL



But seriously, it would be nice to have some of that right now. Because otherwise, There will be total devestation. As I was about to say, Goodbye Jamacia

[ericinmia]

This can show you where the winds for the gulf high, trough, and bermuda high are... if the Bermuda high is degrading (as it is), you can see where the high's periphery is now, imagine where it will be tomorrow afternoon.
-Eric

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8v4km.GIF

[crazycajuncane]

I guess Mexicans don't mean Number 2 to you?

How about..... out to sea? I've seen models having it miss Flordia and out to sea.

Don't wish this 150 mph storm to go anywhere....... TO ANYONE.

I'm sorry, but it's just not right. Like many people have said.... American isn't the only land around. If it hits Mexico..... it's all good then?

\
There is now not one model that takes this out to sea. The gfs even puts it in the Gulf briefly. Note- No model that I have seen.

I made a mistake.... Going through Cuba and then passing into sea.

And I don't want that to happen. I'd rather it enter the gulf and catch some sheer and pull and Earl. Yeah, I know its not likely. My apologies here. I was just stating not to wish it on the Mexicans. What did they do? I guess no matter where it goes.... it will have to hit land. Crazier things have happened though.

[mobilebay]

Yep folks we've gotta keep an eye on the rest of the tropics........other storms could be brewing......


Tropical Depression TEN


000
WTNT45 KNHC 092037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES AS A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...INCREASINGLY
REMOVED
FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER 200 NM AWAY AND SPREADING OVER
THE AZORES. SINCE THE LOW LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SWIRL ARE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY
EXIST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SUB 26C WATER.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE LOW CENTER HAS TURNED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A MOTION THAT WAS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO SOON. OF
THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...ONLY THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE AZORES...BUT THEY APPARENTLY HAVEN'T
NOTICED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY SHEARED OFF.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...OR IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM MET OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT21 EGRR.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 35.8N 33.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.2N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 10/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/0600Z 34.0N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/1800Z 33.5N 30.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1800Z...REMNANT LOW


$$

That has been downgraded and it was up near the Azores. Never a threat.

[lildixie]

Would this be the correct link?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004091000

If not, they can go here: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

[skysummit]

I'm just tired of seeing the models. At one moment they're shifting west and the next moment, they're shifting east. Right now they mean absolutely nothing to me. I guess once Ivan is crossing Cuba, I'll pay more attention to them.

[mobilebay]

I guess Mexicans don't mean Number 2 to you?

How about..... out to sea? I've seen models having it miss Flordia and out to sea.

Don't wish this 150 mph storm to go anywhere....... TO ANYONE.

I'm sorry, but it's just not right. Like many people have said.... American isn't the only land around. If it hits Mexico..... it's all good then?

\
There is now not one model that takes this out to sea. The gfs even puts it in the Gulf briefly. Note- No model that I have seen.

I made a mistake.... Going through Cuba and then passing into sea.

And I don't want that to happen. I'd rather it enter the gulf and catch some sheer and pull and Earl. Yeah, I know its not likely. My apologies here. I was just stating not to wish it on the Mexicans. What did they do? I guess no matter where it goes.... it will have to hit land. Crazier things have happened though.

I agree. Good post.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Copied this from a local weather forum... Here is the link http://www.wwltv.com
I find this statement from one of our mets from this site very interesting:

We had many calls at the station today wondering why our forecast was different than the Weather Channel's. WWL will ALWAYS display the official NHC forecast. In the rare event we disagree with it, we will also show a forecast of our own and why we disagree.

After some digging, Carl just confirmed via his sources at the Weather Channel that they are indeed NOT even showing NHC's forecast, but showing a forecast produced by their own meteorologists. While I think there is nothing wrong in doing this, I think they should also show the NHC forecast as well as not to confuse people, or lead people to believe that is the official forecast when it is not.

This information has been passed on to the director of NHC so they understand what is going on. I'm not sure when the Weather Channel started this policy, but I find it a bit disturbing.

I just wanted to give everyone a heads up because I know some other posts here have been wondering why this is the case.


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm more in line with this model in my thinking.

[skysummit]

I noticted that today TWC was doing that. I seen the track on the net and it was taking Ivan in near, or just north of Tampa, and then I see TWC's track less than 2 minutes later, and they're showing the center of the cone in the Panhandle.

What exactly is WWL in N.O. showing Ivan doing?

[Guest]

I hate to be stupid, but what are the implications of the retrograde?

[mobilebay]

I'm more in line with this model in my thinking.

the models are more in line . Miami to Mobile. LOL It will be interesting what the UKMET, and EURO have to say.