Ivan Advisories

#2801 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:32 am

When I was in New Orleans.... I watched WWL often. They are a good TV Station.

#2802 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:32 am

Ladies and gentlemen!! Stop the bickering!! And please stop twisting others words to say something that was not said.

Go to the top of Hurricane Hollow Forum and read Marshall's warning.

We are getting ready to start handing out suspensions if this does not stop!!! This is not a threat, IT IS A PROMISE!!

Sean in New Orleans · #2803 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:32 am

They are showing the NHC track and sticking to their discussions. WWL will not make any "on air" serious comments about the track until it is in the Gulf, IMO. However, if you go to their weather forum, you will frequently see rather frank posts from David Bernard and John Gumm and detailed explanations of what they are thinking.

#2804 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:33 am

The Jamaican radio station sure is playing "happy" music knowing that they will get flattened tomorrow.

wxwatcher2 · #2805 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:33 am

Thanks John for posting this information.
I wondered why the info and the graphics on TWC were different from the NHC.
I think TWC would be wise to come back in line with the rest of the weather community.
Their reliability is going downhill very fast in a lot of peoples estimation.

#2806 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:33 am

A sooner turn to a more northern heading...

logybogy · #2807 Postby **logybogy** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:34 am

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

Sean in New Orleans · #2808 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:34 am

wxwatcher2 wrote:Thanks John for posting this information.
I wondered why the info and the graphics on TWC were different from the NHC.
I think TWC would be wise to come back in line with the rest of the weather community.
Their reliability is going downhill very fast in a lot of peoples estimation.

It's actually my post---I copied this from the WWL forum, but, included the link to keep things legal.

calidoug · #2809 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:35 am

Now we wait for the new Euro and GFS....

#2810 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:35 am

Here in Lafayette, Rob Perillo is agreeing with a hit in Flordia, but he also covers by saying this thing could go as west as Alabama.

Many factors have to play out and timing is the key. He did mention that Hurricanes sometimes do what they want and that makes the 5 day forecast almost impossible.

And yes, I believe Hurricanes have a mind of their own.

They were off on Charleys landing and intesity.

Frances wasn't supposed to camp out in Flordia all weekend. The forecast changed many times.

Ivan has been on key, but the first forecasts had it in the central gulf.

It's just wait and see right now.

#2811 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:37 am

Flordia is like a magnet to these models!

Yikes.

#2812 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:37 am

calidoug wrote:Yes, it looks like the eastern end or a near miss to the N, although one has to always include the caveat that things could change-- the path could bend back more to the left,
although that seems unlikely at this point.

You are talking like the storm is 100 miles off the Florida coastline.
It is very possible that Ivan MAY never come close to Central or South Florida. I think you fail to realize how FAR he still is from Florida or anywhere along the US coastline.

#2813 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:37 am

calidoug wrote:Now we wait for the new Euro and GFS....

The euro should be telling of what is occuring with the Bermuda high. It has been the only global model initializing the high, and the low spinng west around its southeastern periphery properly.
-Eric

#2814 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:38 am

I know when a high builds in, it normally will stop a storm from turning, but when it weakens, what exactly causes the storm to follow the perimeter as the high backs to the east? Is there a second player right now, or if Ivan wanted to, couldn't he just continue a WNW track until he ran into something that would cause him to vier more to the north?

#2815 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:39 am

I am listening to it as well. My god I can just imagine the anxiety in Jamica right now. The music is making me really sad.

It's like that last hope kinda deal.

mobilebay · #2816 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:40 am

The GFDL at 00z has basicly the same track. That means the UKMET, the GFS,and the GFDL are in very good agreement at 00Z run.

karenfromheaven · #2817 Postby **karenfromheaven** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:40 am

This is a nice loop:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004091000

Definately a westward shift from the last 00Z run. Drat, it goes right over the house...

Karen

calidoug · #2818 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:40 am

Stormcenter, we were talking about Jamaica, not Florida!!

Pay attention!

Shoshana · #2819 Postby **Shoshana** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:41 am

I saw that. They're good about explaining stuff at the forum.

Sean... a suggestion? If you use the "quote" function (see the button^) around the part you are copying ie

This one

Then it would be easier to figure out who said what.

'shana

#2820 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:42 am

I guess you all seen from another post that the UKMET has now blew east with the rest of the bunch.

Ivan Advisories

Uh Oh HUGE SHIFT EAST IN UKMET - ACROSS FL PENINSULA

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