Ivan Advisories

[Stormcenter]

Based on latest satellite Ivan still looks like
he may be weakening some as mentioned
on 4am discussion from the NHC. Who
knows maybe we will see another unexplainable
weakening before landfall hurricane. I also
notice that he last slowed down alot in forward speed.
This is not good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gatorbabe79]

The latest satellite loop appears to show a more northerly component. Does anyone else see this?

I see it and it's even more apparent when I take off my glasses.

[vacanechaser]

probably an eyewall replacement cycle... It will come back... Plenty of time and warm water ahead... These down turns in appearance is normal...

[clueless newbie]

The outflow does not look as well as before. Good news for Jamaica.

[Stormcenter]

Yes, I just got a new vortex. Pressure is up 934mb but flight level winds still support it's 145mph at the surface.

URNT12 KNHC 101023
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1023Z
B. 16 DEG 10 MIN N
74 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2510 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 130 DEG 141 KT
G. 041 DEG 11 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 8 C/ 3136 M
J. 18 C/ 3119 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF866 1309A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NE QUAD 1020Z.

All GOOD news.

[Derek Ortt]

the last two recon fixes show a conitnued WNW motion. What you are seeing is the eye changing in shape slightly.

Also, just checked the 500mb obs from 0Z and there is a 500mb ridge centered about over Miami

[Stormcenter]

There sure is a lot more dry air in the WV loop this morning that the past couple of days.

Good news!!!!!!!!

[baygirl_1]

Okay, this may be a stupid question, Derek, but... What will the ridge over Miami mean for Ivan's direction?

[Deenac813]

Question--does a more northerly turn mean better or worse for south florida?

[Derek Ortt]

If the ridge remains in place, this would mean a CGOM storm; however, I am seeing some major trouble as this ridge does appear as if it may shift some to the east, meaning a much greater threat to Florida

[Downdraft]

The Saint John's river in Central Florida runs south to north. With head waters in the Melbourne area it flows to Jacksonville. Because of Frances the St. Johns's will crest above flood stage this weekend. IF we take another hit and Ivan comes through while the river is at crest it will be a major flooding disaster for cities like Sanford along the banks of Lake Monroe. NWS Melbourne's AFD already alludes to this. How many other areas can say they were hit by 3 in a months time. Charley came through a CAT 2 but surprisingly did CAT 3 damage to infrastructure and trees. Frances came through a CAT 1 but lasted for hours if not days. Ivan's up at the plate and I sure hope he doesn't hit a home run!

[das8929]

Wow it looks alot uglier than it did yesterday!

[recmod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 101105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1105Z
B. 16 DEG 13 MIN N
74 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2514 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 273 DEG 107 KT
G. 178 DEG 008 NM
H. <b>934 MB</b>
I. 13 C/ 3142 M
J. 18 C/ 3128 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. <b>BROKEN WALL</b>
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1309A IVAN OB 30
MAX FL WIND <b>141 KT NE QUAD 1020Z. EYEWALL MORE RAGGED, WEAK IN
SPOTS</b>.

Presssure up..flight level winds down and eye is ragged.....Ivan continues to weaken as of right now

[Derek Ortt]

the pressure is the same as the previous vortex

[Guest]

I would definitely avoid 17-92 in Sanford where the road runs parallel to the water. I've never cared driving around that lake before, will DEFINITELY not now. And there's a hospital there too. I wonder if they are planning on evacuations?
...Jennifer...

[Hyperstorm]

Most, if not all of the models forecast Ivan to grow much larger in size once it enters the Gulf of Mexico and that could spell trouble for Florida. If the storm increases in size as forecast by most of the models, then the effects of Ivan could be felt from the panhandle to the southern part of the Peninsula. I know this is not what you all want to hear.

Here we go again...

[recmod]

Look at the trend Derek...pressure is up 4 mb in the past two hours. Also, the description of the eye has gone from a "Closed Wall: ..to "Broken Wall...Ragged and Weak in Places"

sounds like weakening trend to me

--Lou

[Guest]

Deland is a mess right now. Trees down everywhere. Most people I know in Deland do not have power yet. The power company suggests by Tuesday, but by then it could be too late if Ivan comes. If you're not sure where Deland is, it's a few miles southwest of Daytona. By the time the storm works it way over to this side, it should have substantially weakened.
...Jennifer...

[Thunder44]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

[das8929]

I think next advisory is 135 mph. The pressure is going up.