Ivan Advisories

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btsgmdad
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#3641 Postby btsgmdad » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:42 pm

The storm is starting to get that ugly #9 forming. An unscientific yet commonplace sign of strengthening.
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lilbump3000
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#3642 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:42 pm

Looking at ivan on infrared, seems we might have a cat. 5 again real soon before landfall over jamica, or moving along the coast.
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huricanwatcher
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#3643 Postby huricanwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:42 pm

talk about a delayed responce............. gezzzzz
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chris_fit
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#3644 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:43 pm

pressure is down again....
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Mello1
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#3645 Postby Mello1 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:43 pm

calidoug wrote:Mello1, as has been repeated constantly, using the "img" tag does NOT increase strain on storm2k. It makes no difference if you provide the image link as text, or embed the image link as an "image" in the html-- it does not impact the storm2k database or bandwidth in either case.


Then perhaps you need to tell that to the mods. I was only repeating what they posted in their sticky...
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btsgmdad
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#3646 Postby btsgmdad » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:44 pm

OMG! The bomb had to go off right before Jamaica. Given other reports on the board, we may see another Mitch type event there.
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#3647 Postby Jetman » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:44 pm

winds should pick up to 140 kt again in the next 2 hours
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#3648 Postby air360 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:44 pm

I love your practical reasoning:) (i am being serious..not sarcastic)
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ALhurricane
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#3649 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:45 pm

13 mb drop since just before 18z (2pm eastern)... that is very impressive.

As always, the increase in winds lags a little behind the pressure drops. The winds will definitely be coming up, especially with that type of pressure drop.

I feel very bad for the people of Jamaica this evening.
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#3650 Postby mf_dolphin » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:45 pm

The winds usually follow a pressure drop in a few hours.
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canegrl04
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#3651 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:46 pm

Oh $h**!!! Ivan will probably be cat 5 just in time for Jamiaca landfall :( :( :(
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feederband
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#3652 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:47 pm

:eek:
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Lockhart
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#3653 Postby Lockhart » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:48 pm

Yes, it seems like the NHC just wanted to keep South Florida completely ready in case the hurricane went slightly East of where they think it'll go. That's obviously very smart. They could have moved the projected path to where they think it will go, but many people in Florida might then have thought, "OK, it's gone now", when in fact, a very slight shift sends it right back into South Florida. Good move on Avila's part.
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#3654 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:48 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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otowntiger
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#3655 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:50 pm

Well the important thing is the winds have not responded yet. As we all know the winds have a delayed response to pressure changes. In this case if they don't increase before landfall, they won't have the chance to. I feel sure that there will be some disruption of Ivan as he traverses those high mountians of Jamaica. I didn't realize it but there are some mountains there as tall as 7000 feet. Thats as tall as Mt .Mitchell in NC, the tallest mountain in the Eastern US.
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Anonymous

#3656 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:50 pm

Turbo lag....Jamaica MAY get lucky because of this, and depending on how fast he moves. If he slows, look out! He needs to keep on trucking.
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Cape Verde
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#3657 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:50 pm

The last thread to raise the issue regarding graphics was deleted. I don't really understand that.<P>It didn't even have graphics.
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Foladar

#3658 Postby Foladar » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:51 pm

so your saying the three possibilities are: north FLA, central FLA, or south FLA?
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#3659 Postby Scott_inVA » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:51 pm

Quite accurate it is not unique to hurricanes. In fact, Low pressure centers bombing out typically refers to Altantic Lows in winter such as a Nor'easter "bombing".

Couple links may help explaining the 24mb in 24 hours concept:

http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/13646/106008
http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/autumn034.htm

Interesting reading

Scott
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chris_fit
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#3660 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:51 pm

Foladar wrote:so your saying the three possibilities are: north FLA, central FLA, or south FLA?

along the west coast yes
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