Ivan Advisories

Anonymous · #3841 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:24 pm

The reason for the forecast of increased shear, is because of the anticipated trough having an influence on Ivan.

No big earth shattering news there.

Sanibel · #3842 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:26 pm

Jamaica could be shielding it from the synopitcs that damaged its structure earlier. See if it goes out of wack after departing this island shadow...

weatherluvr · #3843 Postby **weatherluvr** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:26 pm

das8929 wrote:The slight shear to the north that was messing with the outflow. You can see it clearly on the infrared.

Actually, that jet streak to its NW is probably the biggest factor in blowing her up to a near cat 5 tonight. The intense upper-air evacuation it's creating off to the NE is turbocharging the outflow. This is actually a common feature for storms of this magnitude.

#3844 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:28 pm

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

That strong inland?? :eek:

#3845 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:29 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:ivan was and did weaken...and then restrengthen..

all the models and official forecasts develop significant shear in the gulf...thankfully....

not cheerleading..just passing along info...dont take it personal.

You are correct dennis1x1.

Anonymous · #3846 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:29 pm

I honestly do not find this surprising at all. You can plainly see the upper level winds out infront of Ivan causing this current trend.

In the big picture, and it is important, is when and where Ivan decides to make the sharp bend back to the NW. That is the 64 million dollar question.

As long as the current upper level wind flow stays the way it is, he isn't going to make that sudden of a turn any time soon. Maybe in 48 hrs., but by that time, he will be over the wesern tip of Cuba, placing the Pensacola/Mobile areas in more danger.

Anonymous · #3847 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:31 pm

Un...freakin...real.
Jamaica will get leveled by this hurricane, no question. Looking at the sat pics makes me feel hard for those people.

Website · #3848 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:32 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

initial 11/0300z 17.5n 76.9w 135 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 18.3n 77.9w 135 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 19.3n 79.1w 140 kt :eek:

36hr VT 12/1200z 20.4n 80.4w 140 kt :eek:

48hr VT 13/0000z 21.8n 81.5w 140 kt :eek:

72hr VT 14/0000z 25.0n 83.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 15/0000z 30.0n 83.5w 100 kt...inland
120hr VT 16/0000z 35.5n 83.0w 30 kt...inland

Fodie77 · #3849 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:34 pm

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 35

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan nearing Jamaica...could reach
category 5 strength before landfall...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince. This
warning will likely be discontinued later tonight.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of Youth...
and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast
of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba. Hurricane
warnings may be required for portions of western Cuba on
Saturday...and tropical storm warnings may be required for portions
of central Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea...as well as southern
Florida...should closely monitor the progress of dangerous
Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 17.5 north...longitude 76.9 west or about 35 miles...
55 km...south of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease
on forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring
the eye of Ivan near or over the southern coast of Jamaica in the
next few hours. The eye will then continue across the northwestern
Caribbean to near the Cayman Islands late Saturday or Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph...250
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated
terrain. Some strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours...
and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5 status
before the eye reaches Jamaica.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km. Amateur radio reports indicate hurricane
force winds over large parts of Jamaica.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb...27.17 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 76.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Guest · #3850 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:34 pm

Put offical in front of it so we don't get five or more of the same post, maybe that will help.

das8929 · #3851 Postby **das8929** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:34 pm

At least its not 150 kt

.

Website · #3852 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:36 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

:eek:

#3853 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:36 pm

ericinmia wrote:
jpigott wrote:is that east or west of the old GFS run

OVER miami.... lol
I'm ready...
The house, supplies, etc. chainsaws etc.
webcam, and weather station...
If it does come, i hope the eye passes... that is a once in a lifetime opportunity...
-Eric

How old are you may I ask?

canegrl04 · #3854 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:36 pm

Dear God

#3855 Postby **Pebbles** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:37 pm

1mph DOESN"T MAKE A DIFFERENCE in my book..they are going to see cat 5 damage

Fodie77 · #3856 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:37 pm

Little change in track
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Stormsfury · #3857 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:37 pm

155 MPH .and pressures down to 920 MB ... YIKES ...

#3858 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:37 pm

Safe to say we won't be seeing Ivan in 2010.

*gulp*

Fodie77 · #3859 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:38 pm

Pebbles wrote:1mph DOESN"T MAKE A DIFFERENCE in my book..they are going to see cat 5 damage

Yes, you might as well go ahead consider this a Cat 5

#3860 Postby **abajan** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:39 pm

Not only are the winds increasing but it's slowing down too...

This doesn't look good for Jamaica at all.

Ivan Advisories

11pm Ivan-155 mph winds, 920 mb pressure

11 PM NHC ADVISORY- NOW 155MPH

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