Ivan Advisories

[hesperhys]

is that east or west of the old GFS run

OVER miami.... lol
I'm ready...
The house, supplies, etc. chainsaws etc.
webcam, and weather station...
If it does come, i hope the eye passes... that is a once in a lifetime opportunity...
-Eric

How old are you may I ask?

good question

[Anonymous]

Take a look at this water vapor loop and make note of the clouds pushing out in front of Ivan to the west, then bending slightly to the WNW and then NW, into the middle of the GOM. You can plainly see the moisture pattern out front, pushing up into the trough. It's a no brainer for the next 24-36 hrs. Beyond that, I wouldn't even begin to guess.

Watchout western tip of Cuba. That is all I have to say.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[King6]

Always hated a glazed doughnut on land,Feel really bad about Jamaica,I Always wanted to go there,my prayers goes to the people in Jamaica

[Anonymous]

Very bad

[AL Chili Pepper]

With the angle that Ivan has on Old Harbour Bay right now, I would bet that the storm surge is immense. Any jog to the NW in the next few hours and Ivan will plow Jamaica.

[Fodie77]

Not only are the winds increasing but it's slowing down too...

This doesn't look good for Jamaica at all.

Would slowing down indicate an upcoming turn?

[Innotech]

this is a Cat 5. 1 mph will very likely be reached and probably already is being topped. This is a Cat 5 if Ive ever seen it. dear God.

[Anonymous]

Little change in track
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Slightly closer to me

[Sean in New Orleans]

Ya think? I tell you one thing....it's blowing up big time over Jamaica--we'll hear about this on the news tomorrow. They are getting hammered. I sincerely hope everyone there is safe and OK.

[TheWriteIdea]

Would you mind saying what you think this means? For those of us who are new to all this...

[cloud_galaxy]

"it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5 status
before the eye reaches Jamaica."

[LCfromFL]

Little change in track
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

The ONLY thing good I see about that forecast track is that Ivan will be moving through FL at a pretty good clip - not dragging his heels like Frances. Other than that - bad bad bad news for our friends in Jamacia, the Caymans, Cuba and here at home.

Go AWAY Ivan!

[TSmith274]

Is it just me, or has the high pressure extended past Cuba now?

[WESTCHESTERPA]

Seems as though may not get pulled in and make actual landfall?????

[BReb]

from what I can tell, the southern coast of Jamaica west of the capital city is pretty sparsely populated land, thankfully. Plus, the eye wall hasn't come in yet. I think the worst damage may be in Negril, which is a fairly significant resort town on the extreme western tip of Jamaica.

Typing in "Jamaica Negril" in google results in around 250,000 hits, whereas most of the other coast towns east of it generate a few hundred or thousand. So Jamaica may have lucked out, though Negril is in real danger unless Ivan weakens.

[CourierPR]

In this case I think the slowing down indicates weak steering currents. I find the mention of SoFla in the advisory, interesting.

[Fodie77]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html
The discussion, for those who haven't read it yet.

[canegrl04]

Ivans going to be the most deadly hurricane since Mitch

[AL Chili Pepper]

1mph DOESN"T MAKE A DIFFERENCE in my book..they are going to see cat 5 damage

Yep...they're earning their 5 stripes tonight as far as I'm concerned.

[Brent]

the NHC track has Ivan's closest approach to the Lower Keys Monday Afternoon, so deducting 36 hours, AT THE LATEST, Watches would be issued by late tomorrow night.