Ivan Advisories

recmod · #3941 Postby **recmod** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:17 pm

Look at the 11pm NHC discussion again...they havethe center at 25.0N, 83.0W...off the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane (115knots)

CaluWxBill · #3942 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:17 pm

Come on guys, quit confusing BUD. the bottomline to me is that he misunderstood that the lower the pressure the greater the winds. BUD if you were asking something different please tell me.

Website · #3943 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:18 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:nope....no way the shear is hitting now.....and not for another couple of days.....according to the nhc anyway...

passing on official forecasts about as far from -removed- as it gets.....

But I thought it was being sheared this afternoon?

I'm very confused. :lol:

Stormsfury · #3944 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:18 pm

Several images on the site, and did not want to tie up a lot of space here ...

Entire Western Side of FLA in harm's way, and the Central Panhandle ... along with Georgia and the Carolinas with potential significant flooding impacts, aggravated by Frances ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(Toolbar to My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion) ...

Guest · #3945 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:19 pm

Foladar your right, why people want to undermine themselves gets the best of me.

#3946 Postby **Pebbles** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:19 pm

Personally feel the eye will still make landfall...as I stated earlier the storm is 'stairstepping' ...hope you don't take that as a bash! It's not by any means! You have your prediction and I have mine

..just a difference of opinion *huggers*

Sean in New Orleans · #3947 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:19 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:the northern eyewall is a good 30 miles offshore still......IT IS NOT ON THE SOUTHERN COAST.....

the 150mph winds are probably confined to just a couple of miles from the actual eye....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

I agree and that is the original position of this thread. Let's hope, for Jamaica is skirts West and the eye stays off of the island.

Website · #3948 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:20 pm

recmod wrote:Look at the 11pm NHC discussion again...they havethe center at 25.0N, 83.0W...off the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane (115knots)

115 knots can be a Cat 3 or 4(130 or 135 mph). The NHC has it at 130 according to this http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Oh... not that it matters. It doesn't really make a difference whether it's 130 or 135 mph.

#3949 Postby **MGC** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:20 pm

Jamica's prayers have been answered to a small degree as it looks like Ivan will not make a direct hit. The cause of Ivan's west jog? I speculate it is due to Ivan's circulations interaction with Jamacia topography. I read an article years ago that stated that hurricanes can pivot to the left when nearing land. Has anyone else read this and if so can they provide a link so I can reread it........MGC

dwinpcola · #3950 Postby **dwinpcola** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:21 pm

LakeToho , what is your issue. I have seen you be rude to several different people on this forum today. This person made a post and provided data. I am not sure why you are attacking/insulting people but do us a favor in RELAX. This board is for people to post and share ideas. That means even if you do not agree.

dw

Lockhart · #3951 Postby **Lockhart** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:22 pm

The longer the eyewall stays 30 miles offshore, the longer 30 more miles of Jamaica doesn't get the fastest winds. So, although Jamaica is, I'm sure, taking a pounding, they're dodging a bullet so far.

Website · #3952 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:22 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:cayman shouldnt need as much luck...in fact it would take some extremely unlucky events to cause them trouble based on current forecast track..

Grand Cayman, yes.

But the NHC track takes the eye right over Little Cayman and Cayman Brac as a Cat 5.

BUD · #3953 Postby **BUD** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:22 pm

Thanks for the answers

miamijaaz · #3954 Postby **miamijaaz** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:23 pm

It sure looks like it. In the last frame there was another major wobble to the left. It almost looks like Ivan is sidestepping Jamaica!

Guest · #3955 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:23 pm

take a look at this. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43421

MW98GT · #3956 Postby **MW98GT** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:23 pm

The latitude was .1 to high, hurrtrak updated, shows 298 movement since 8. I agree though, big west jog, maybe dodging the landscape or copying charley, he did the exact same thing.

#3957 Postby **melhow** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:23 pm

"Oh... not that it matters. It doesn't really make a difference whether it's 130 or 135 mph."

It did a few posts ago now didn't it...

canegrl04 · #3958 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:24 pm

Whats poteential good news for Jamaica is unfortunately bad for Cuba and the US.If Ivan's eye remains in water,he could be a strong cat 5 by the time he crosses Cuba,maybe a 5 for Florida

dennis1x1 · #3959 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:25 pm

2:45 sat continues due west trend...another "bullet" dodged.....3 or 4 more frames of this makes it very difficult to see an eyewall landfall...negril still a tossup at this point.

#3960 Postby **abajan** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:26 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:Good grief....look at Grand Cayman. It's a speck of dust compared to Jamaica. I hope they get a little lucky tomorrow!

A speck of dust with very well constructed buildings, from what I recall.

Ivan Advisories

Impacts down the road with Ivan ...

Cause of Ivan's west jog

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