Ivan Advisories

[Coral Palms]

sorry for the bad link
storm surge
http://www.gulfcountygovernment.com/hurr_zone.pdf

[TLHR]

Ivan did not inhale.

[tronbunny]

First, thank you for all of the wonderful info on this site. I am a long time reader, first post.
I live in Atlanta but have a new house on Cape San Blas, FL. (about 25 miles west of Apalachicola)
I found the storm surge map for the Cape and it doesn't look good if a hurricane comes our way. When should I think about boarding up?

You are looking down the barrel of a Category 3 hurricane!
The surge should be arriving by mid-morning wednesday.
Be done boarding up no later than tuesday eve, and out by early wed!
I'd do that even if they came out and said "It's gonna hit Tampa."

Take care and be safe!

[weatherFrEaK]

Nobody knows yet how Jamaica fared.

[Josephine96]

It appears that Jamaica was lucky because the eye didn't pass over..

[~SirCane]

CFL:

Thinks are getting grim for this neck of the woods as times goes by. : o

[stormernie]

In the Hi-Resolution Visible Loop http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes - it shows that Ivan is going thru a cyclonic loop. If this is the case than it would be interesting to see the direction it resumes after completing this loop.

For any experts out there, please review and let us know what you think?

Thanks
Ernie

[zoeyann]

What is a cyclonic loop?

[Stephanie]

Thank God it didn't go over the island! However, The worst part of the storm - northeast quadrant - is skirting the southern part of the island, so while they didn't experience the core, the affects along the southern coast are almost as devastating.

[Anonymous]

[stormernie]

A cyclonic loop is were the storm goes thru a counter-clockwise loop

[PurdueWx80]

Coral - I was mentioning this yesterday, but it has been stated by a relatively famous meteorologist (Joe Bastardi) this morning, that IF Ivan appears to be headed in west of Cape San Blas...he could be a Cat 5 at landfall. In that event, the storm surge would be phenomenal. The idea is that if the steering currents don't turn Ivan north far enough east, then the turn will come at a point when Ivan has little interaction w/ land and much more interaction with the warmer waters of the central Gulf. It is something to consider now, and we should know better in a few days where Ivan is more likely to be headed.

[chris_fit]

Just like Charley.

[Windfall]

The dry air line seems to be pushing more east, as it has moved through the western panhandle. This trough appears to be digging deeper and deeper. The ULL is showing no signs of slowing down or moving away from Florida. Ivan is moving slower, now at 10 mph. Its direction is more WNW now, instead of nearly due west.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[CFL]

I know Sir Cane! Interesting days ahead. . .

[Stormtrack03]

Well we can all agree this storm will at least hit Cuba within the next 24 - 48 hours, after that, all bets are off.

[zoeyann]

Thanks stormernie, I wasn't sure what you meant. I noticed something weird looking with the storm, but do not know what to make of it.

[Josephine96]

True about Cuba.. Not so sure about the rest of us..

[x-y-no]

What you are seeing is an ERC in progress. The old smaller and collapsing eye is rotating withing the new larger eye.

[BigO]

I would imagine that there are a large number of people with a renewed belief in the power of prayer this morning in Jamaica.