When will the ULL erode the high pressure ridge???

[Windfall]

The ULL does exist. Why isn't the ridge being weakened any??????? This will occur sometime no matter what. Why don't any of the forecast models acknowledge the approach of the ULL.

Call me crazy, but as the ULL moved west, part of the trough got pushed farther south, causing the "Famous Due West Movement south of Jamaica". Once this ULL moves closer, all of this "Shift west" is sadly going to change to "OMG, shift towards the east".

Just watch. Don't believe me, time will tell. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[margaritabeach]

ok. your crazy.

[FloridaDiver]

There seems to be a small, yet growing concern on this board about the interaction of the trough moving more south as some sat loops are indication and the ULL to the east. I agree, I don’t buy this big shift west, I think if the synoptic patterns continue and a few models pick this up, the 11:00pm advisory will be.. shall we say… interesting?

[Huckster]

Not crazy, just a little off. This somewhat unexpected more westward movement the last 12 hours really seems to have brought out the freaky side of some people. Not saying you're crazy, just calm down a bit. I thought last night some of the people getting worked up about the "wobble" were jumping the gun, but it does look like it was more than a wobble. About the changes in the models, I don't know enough to speculate about whether the westward shift in them is because of the new position, or if they're actually seeing some sort of pattern changes. I am sure someone else does though. Anyway, I won't start to really get concerned here in LA until there is a change in the implied pattern at the end of the tracks. Despite the westward shifts, they mostly seem to still be turning it into the Panhandle, though farther west. If or when I start to see these things taking it into the middle of the Gulf and then due north or just keeping it going NW into the C Gulf coast, then I would get more concerned. Right now the north turn still looks like it will happen, but the big shift to the west amongst the models is somewhat alarming.

[Anonymous]

The combination of the ULL and Ivan are enhancing the high pressure over Florida. Along with the trough, getting squashed, I anticipate a much more westward track, before Ivan turns NW, then NNW and eventually N, as he enters the southern GOM, just off the western tip of Cuba.

Mobile residents better be alert.

Florida west coast folks are looking better and better by each passing hour. Not completely out of the woods, but are looking much better then just 24-48hrs. ago.

[Innotech]

Im sticking with Talahassee area, at landfall.

[browe29]

Im sticking with Talahassee area, at landfall.

Is that because of the 11am NOAA discussion, the FSU computer model or other reasons?

[T'Bonz]

I hope not. I have children at FSU.

I'd rather have it then have them sit it out. (and no, I don't want it. I'm tired of hurricanes.)

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I hope not. I have children at FSU.

I'd rather have it then have them sit it out. (and no, I don't want it. I'm tired of hurricanes.)

you must have a lot of children...lol

[T'Bonz]

Three. Two in Tallahassee at FSU and one here in Ft. Lauderdale area.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Three. Two in Tallahassee at FSU and one here in Ft. Lauderdale area.

Cool! The more the merrier!