Ivan Advisories

[cycloneye]

Yes that is a prudent move by them although Ivan may not go that far west being so powerful the effects will be felt very far.

[Josephine96]

Prayers going out to the Caymans now..

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm still leaning more West....as you go West, Derek, so do I....I'm now leaning towards Mobile to Destin....storm is just moving too far West...we need to watch this one closely...Gulf is opening up for this system..

[Brent]

Not at 5pm.

Reliable source tells me NHC will bring it inland near Apalachicola then.

[Stormtrack03]

I think the models will shift more right toward the end of the period in my opinion.

[latemodel25]

In my opinion.. anywhere between Sarasota and Cedar Key will have to deal with the wrath of this monster Are you studying atmospheric conditions or just a hunch or both? Thanks.

[Brent]

Yes... it will be a direct hit.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Is there a natural tendency for a storm to head more northerly the stronger it is? -barring anything keeping it from doing so that is?

-like in weak steeing currents?

[canegrl04]

Slow speed over very warm sst's = Ivan could reach 170mph+

[Josephine96]

LOL Model..

We're all entitled to our own opinions.. even if there are no facts to back them up..

[Brent]

Pressure is down to 918 huh? I wonder what the winds will be at the 5pm advisory?

165? 170?

165 unless recon finds stronger winds...

[seannymac]

I live in a stilt house on Big Pine Key in the Florida Keys. We have evacuated to my parents in Homestead. Do you all think the keys will truly be affected by Ivan. By affected, I mean cat 2 or above in the keys. I am worried that this slow down in motion indicate a shift in movement to a more N movement. What is the chance of the storm coming our way?

[seannymac]

I live in a stilt house on Big Pine Key in the Florida Keys. We have evacuated to my parents in Homestead. Do you all think the keys will truly be affected by Ivan. By affected, I mean cat 2 or above in the keys. I am worried that this slow down in motion indicate a shift in movement to a more N movement. What is the chance of the storm coming our way?

[canegrl04]

Given the situation now,I think theres potential for Ivan to get as Strong as Camille,that imfamous,historic cane

[seannymac]

I live in a stilt house on Big Pine Key in the Florida Keys. We have evacuated to my parents in Homestead. Do you all think the keys will truly be affected by Ivan. By affected, I mean cat 2 or above in the keys. I am worried that this slow down in motion indicate a shift in movement to a more N movement. What is the chance of the storm coming our way?

[Josephine96]

I wouldn't let my guard down either.. Anyone who does is really being idiotic..

[Windtalker]

When Ivan reaches the Caymans, He will then start his NW to N to NE motion. When he comes off Cuba, I think "In my opinion" he will be moving more NNE. The NW part of Ivan is already showing a direction he will turn to...the Alley is open. All bets are off with the models, to much going on in the atmosphere with the highs, lows, troughs ect. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

[Chilly_Water]

I've got friends on the island that tried to get a flight off three days ago, but everything was booked. They looked for ply wood to board up their house, but couldn't find any anywhere on the island. So now the two of them are going to hole up at the bank where one of them works. She said there was a "shelter" at the bank and I'm not sure if she meant the vault. The radio station down there is still playing music and I heard a little over an hour ago that they were only expecting gusts of 75mph...HUH?

[Jetman]

Yep, by 5 PM

[bahamaswx]

No need to post 3 times.