Ivan Advisories

[alicia-w]

I found that the lowest pressure on record is 870. Just thinking about it makes my head feel like it's gonna implode.

[Derek Ortt]

there is little chance of the core hitting miami. I dont know what data the miami callers are looking at but the obs and mdoel data all suggest panhandle or even farther west

[Bane]

Thanks, Bear.

[Guest]

"It is a good idea, except when a thread gets over 50-60 messages, it gets a bit time consuming going back through every post. Either way you are using bandwidth and time. "

But it's easier to go back searching through pages to find a certain post, when it could be as simple as searching the correct thread?

Just trying to clean this mess up a little bit.

[WeatherNLU]

Regardless of the model and the time frame, it's still interesting.

I think I may get the hurricane kit out and double check it just incase, even though I'd be out of here. Gives me something to do this evening.

[Nimbus]

Nice idea keep this thread bumped with pertinent information. Derek mentioned earlier that the next steering weakness was over near the Yucatan. This means a track through the channel is more likely. Looks as thought the high that was centered over cuba has been pushed a little west.

[rainstorm]

i think the stronger it gets, the more west it will go

[roostercogburn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like it in the last few frames.

[Raebie]

God, don't they have commericals on that station??

[Fodie77]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
Good view of all the current model tracks.

[ColdFront77]

The only portion of Florida, besides the northern portion that was outside the three day
forecast cone was an extreme portion of the southeast coast, just outside Miami.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It looks like Cuba may be in the clear, afterall, and that Ivan is back on the Westward track, IMO...maybe even a bounce W/SW in the last frame. Where on earth is this storm headed? Local mets yesterday, insisted that after today, everything will be "up in the air." It appears that is beginning to happen today from reading this board and watching satellite. Interesting system to watch, no doubt.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gkrangers]

Don't these little W/SW wobbles tend to correlate with intensification?

[das8929]

No, its a slight jog to the west. SW is merely an optical illusion of the frame suddenly coming to an end.

[lowcountry-buckeye]

Ever? When does ever start? 1900? 1935? or should that mean, "Sixth strongest since records have been available."

I wonder what the statisctics from say, 1500 - 1935 would look like. I heard a Forecaster last night on TWC say it pointed toward decade long trends in intensity swings.

All post-1980. I'm sure that fictitious Global Climate Change (Global Warming) has nothing to do with it.

When asked about this possibility he also mentioned evidence was not conclusive enough at this time to consider that (Global Warming) as a factor.

[Frank P]

saw it, but is a typical pattern for a wobbling hurricane on a westward track, but if it keeps up this track it will run well south of the Caymens..... interesting...

[Guest]

Those models are futher west from the last time I check. Whats everyone thoughts about these models right now? Seems a bit too far west to me since the slower movement of Ivan.

[manofsteele79]

There is a definent WSW wobble there. I doubt it's a trend but this is the type of event that keeps pushing those models west. I think to the NE is much stronger than forecasted.

[das8929]

Its not going west, as you can clearly see it is gaining latitude. WNW it looks to me. It wobbles north and west, average it out its still WNW. Looks to hit the western edge of Cuba.

[Rainband]

Looks due west to me, that would be good news