Ivan Advisories

[yzerfan]

We're on a ridge in BWB. Can't see storm surge/flooding being an issue, and our house made it through Opal okay.

We're monitoring the situation, blah, blah, blah and will also probably make a decision tonight.

[Stephanie]

Avila is not as slow as it appears. From what I have heard, he gets more excited about a hurricane than does any of the other forecasters.

It seems that way in his forecasts.

[mobilebay]

The GFS has shifted left with landfall just west of Applachicola. Still waiting on other runs but this was the Eastern outlier? Maybe now the NHC will shift left?

[cycloneye]

The GFS has shifted left with landfall just west of Applachicola. Still waiting on other runs but this was the Eastern outlier? Maybe now the NHC will shift left?

Do you have the link to that run?

[SwampDawg]

Thanks for the replies everyone...I just thought it was an interesting article. I had heard of this before.

[Saitex]

This link helps a lot with translating (does the work for you) http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php

[PurdueWx80]

Look how fast that outer eyewall is contracting...from 50 to 40 nm in an hour or less. This and the fact that the outflow is now excellent in all 4 quads suggests we'll see another rapid deepening in the next 6-12 hours...probably to the lowest pressure yet considering how low the pressure is now w/ respect to the previous eyewall replacement.

[baygirl_1]

I don't like what I read, but I thought I'd share it with y'all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...AN OMINOUS NOTE FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK IS THAT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY IS NOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT THROUGH TUESDAY PER THE LATEST ETA...GFS AND CANADIAN GEM. WHILE THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS ARE STILL PLAYING OUT...THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BASED ON NHC'S LATEST TRACK OF IVAN. FOR TODAY...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW ANY VIABLE EVIDENCE OF THE WEAK FRONT OF YESTERDAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA. WILL OPT FOR NOW TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ON MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES IN THE EJECTION PROCESS. WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR NOW. ON TUESDAY...WITH IVAN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE FOR THE EASTERN AND COASTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.EXTENDED...IVAN WILL DICTATE THE CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MATCHES EXPECTED CONDITIONS WELL WITH NHC'S TRACK OF IVAN. DRIER CONDITIONS...OR AT LEAST SEASONABLE...FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF IVAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

ALL PERSONS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD HAVE A PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE...AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A HURRICANE WATCH OR WARNING BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOME PART OF OUR REGION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Juno Beach]

I really, REALLY want to take down the boards on my sliding glass doors. Is there any chance (ANY CHANCE) that this storm stalls or gets hooked up with some different steering mechanisms that can put me back in the cone?

Should I just live with the boards until it passes my latitude? I'm right at 27N on the east coast of FL.

[Pebbles]

This link helps a lot with translating (does the work for you) http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php

OH *drools* that has to be one of the most excellent links every posted!!! THANKYOU THANKYOU! I hate decoding with a passion..but one of those things I felt had to be done to follow these things.

[das8929]

Yea, im thinking maybe sub 910? Maybe even lower? 170 mph winds?

[Hurricane Cheese]

Waking up this morning and looking at the IR, it seems like Ivan has gotten even BIGGER in size, or surface area.

It looks like the eye is becoming more centered in the CDO and that the ERC is going through...

Anyone else noticing this??

[LAwxrgal]

That site is bookmarked. Thank you!

[bfez1]

"It sure looks like tomorrow could be a critical day, as Ivan approaches the Gulf of Mexico. Everyone is looking at the models. The real question is how strong is that Atlantic ridge? The ETA and CMC bulge the ridge to the west coast of Florida. Combined with a weak steering flow over the mid Gulf by Monday and Tuesday and you get all kinds of headaches for us forecasters. I would really like to see the big NW/N turn tonight or tomorrow morning."

David Bernard
WWL-TV New Orleans

[ZZ3Astro]

Well I checked on some motels in Panama City and everything so far has been booked.. the safe ones at least.

Not sure what the plan will be.. probably take our chances and ride it out at a house on higher ground, or send the wife and kids away on a long drive. I'm not leaving the county and being kept away from my house after the storm.

steve

[HurricaneQueen]

THANK YOU for the link to the decoder. Can't wait to try it out! This site rocks as usual!

[gkrangers]

Yes its bigger, yes the eye is more centered, and yes, its currently going through an ERC.

[LCfromFL]

The 06z run still shows the sharp right into the big bend area

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaanim.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=h500&nplts=31&width=750&height=830

[Sanibel]

1) Obviously missed the trough.


2) Looks like a clean shot through Yucatan Channel at this point.


3) Brings an unhindered storm into the Gulf.


4) Real miss of trough slams NE tip of Yucatan.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Another. The 12Z is a bit different.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml