Ivan Advisories

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Wnghs2007
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#5861 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:31 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Look how fast that outer eyewall is contracting...from 50 to 40 nm in an hour or less. This and the fact that the outflow is now excellent in all 4 quads suggests we'll see another rapid deepening in the next 6-12 hours...probably to the lowest pressure yet considering how low the pressure is now w/ respect to the previous eyewall replacement.


Not to mention almost every time he has went through a deepening phase he jogs back to the west for a couple hours. Will be interesting to see if this should happen again and would almost certainly cause some left shift in the models.
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Anonymous

#5862 Postby Anonymous » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:32 am

I would wholeheartedly agree. I am not liking the apparent more and more west trend.
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#5863 Postby sea oat » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:33 am

the question is "how strong will he be when he hits the CONUS".

i'd like to thank whoever posted the jamaica radio link yesterday. i was amazed at how calm some of the callers were when talking to the dj while their windows were blowing out and on the phone. and the prayer of the children segment that i heard really touched my heart.
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Foladar

#5864 Postby Foladar » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:34 am

Juno Beach wrote:I really, REALLY want to take down the boards on my sliding glass doors. Is there any chance (ANY CHANCE) that this storm stalls or gets hooked up with some different steering mechanisms that can put me back in the cone?

Should I just live with the boards until it passes my latitude? I'm right at 27N on the east coast of FL.

Take 'em down man.
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#5865 Postby sea oat » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:36 am

did you check tallahassee? that's not too terribly far from pc but still in the path if it holds true :(
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rbaker

#5866 Postby rbaker » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:36 am

I agree about throwing out the models, what is it now 4 or 5 days from orlando now to panama city, and if the west movement continues, then like dt said the global models would have been a bigger bust than pamela anderson
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new orleans forcast discussion

#5867 Postby waync » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:37 am

hi,

first time poster.

i started thinking about NO after the 06 gfdl. found this area discussion at the NWS site.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/pre ... &version=0

any one know of a place to see storm surge perdictions?


thanks for the board.


wm
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#5868 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:39 am

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Cayman Net News Update (as of noon EDT) - lots underwater

#5869 Postby anjou » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:42 am

Below is entirety of noon EDT (11am Caymans time) Sunday update at
http://caymannetnews.com/2004/09/738/batter.shtml
...

As of 11 am local time (12 noon EDT), Hurricane Ivan continued to pound Grand Cayman with155 mph winds as it moved slowly along the south coast of the island.

According to the National Hurricane Service in Miami, at 11 am EDT the eye of Hurricane Ivan was about 30 miles southwest of Grand Cayman, but hurricane force winds extended for about 90 miles from the centre of the storm.

As the centre of circulation moves to the southwest of the island, the winds will start to shift to the south, likely exacerbating the dangerous sea conditions already existing around the coasts. In previous hurricanes, the sea has flooded across the island, joining the North and South Sounds, and, with the 6 to 8 ft tidal surge accompanying Ivan, it is possible that hurricane-force southerly winds could result in breaking waves across the entire neck of land separating the two Sounds.

The government-run Radio Cayman is currently off the air as a result of damage to the building housing its studios, with floodwater 2 feet deep in the parking lot. According to Radio Cayman’s News Director, Joel Francis, “We just didn’t see this coming.”

The Government Information Service is also unable to operate and this report has been prepared from unofficial information obtained from local sources.

As predicted, widespread flooding from the expected tidal surge was affecting a large part of the island. One report of a house standing eight feet above normal sea level had water ankle-deep inside. In lower-lying areas there have been reports of people having to climb onto kitchen counters to escape the seas that came flooding into their houses.

At the offices of Cayman Net News, at the time of filing this report, a foot of floodwater has entered the building causing much damage.

The hurricane force winds have torn roofs off and reportedly devastated homes, even in affluent, well-constructed neighbourhoods.

Vehicles parked in flood-prone areas are said to have “just disappeared.”

With many buildings, both residential and commercial, utilising septic tank waste treatment systems, the widespread flooding is resulting in serious health and sanitation concerns as overflowing sewage becomes mixed with the flood waters.

At the Cable & Wireless emergency bunker at One Technology Place, a number of people were given shelter after roofs blew off their houses.

Floodwater rushing through the ground floor apartments in at least one condominium building in West Bay forced the occupants to flee for their own safety to the floors above.

There has been a report that the Hyatt Regency hotel had to be evacuated.

All three islands are currently without any electricity, while water supplies were shut down Saturday night for fear of contamination from broken mains.

Telecommunications are inconsistent and unreliable. Many landlines, especially those that rely on the mains electrical supply are out of commission, but cellular services are still working intermittently.

Reports from the Sister Islands have been scarce, but it is understood that many residents of Cayman Brac sought shelter in the caves on the Bluff, the traditional refuge from hurricanes on that island.

All emergency services personnel have been required to stay at their posts through normal shift changes because it has been too dangerous for the incoming shift to venture out in the current conditions. This has doubtless resulted in a high degree of tiredness and stress for those emergency workers who have been on duty since Saturday.

Sky News in Britain has been carrying live reports every hour from Cayman Net News Publisher and Editor in Chief Desmond Seales, MBE, from the newspaper’s offices in Allista Towers, in George Town, Grand Cayman.

According to Mr Seales, “This is a national disaster. Damage is likely to run into the tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars.”













-------------------------------------------------------------------
Entirety of earlier update at: http://www.caymannetnews.com/2004/09/738/damage.shtml

(see http://www.caymannetnews.com also, for a wealth of info and official reports)

At the offices of Cayman Net News, at the time of filing this report, flood water was rising several inches above the foot of the doors and threatening to breach the integrity of the building. The entire office is currently at risk of being inundated with at least 4 to 5 inches of floodwater.

The hurricane force winds have torn roofs off and reportedly devastated homes, even in affluent, well-constructed neighbourhoods.

Vehicles parked in flood-prone areas are said to have “just disappeared.”

With many buildings, both residential and commercial, utilising septic tank waste treatment systems, the widespread flooding is resulting in serious health and sanitation concerns as overflowing sewage becomes mixed with the flood waters.

According to the National Hurricane Service in Miami, at 8 am EDT the eye of Hurricane Ivan was about 35 miles south of Grand Cayman, but hurricane force winds extended for about 90 miles from the centre of the storm.

A Hurricane Hotline spokesman in Grand Cayman said the eye was expected to “brush” Grand Cayman but not pass across the island.

All three islands are currently without any electricity, while water supplies were shut down Saturday night for fear of contamination from broken mains.

Sky News in Britain has been carrying live reports every hour from Cayman Net News Publisher and Editor in Chief Desmond Seales, MBE, from the newspaper’s offices in Allista Towers, in George Town, Grand Cayman
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#5870 Postby patsmsg » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:45 am

please relax everbody...despite assertions abounding...nobody but IVAN knows where this storm is going, although we all see "indicators".

Raynpa is simply giving an opinion. Forget the CAPS. I welcome all opinions here. I, for one, learn when folks respond (in a positive and informativemanner) to these opinions.

If you disagree with an opinion, please just state why for the benefit of the rest of us. We learn from such responses. No need to embarrass anybody.

Hopefully Rayna will stick around and continue to participate with the rest of us despite the rude welcome.
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Anonymous

#5871 Postby Anonymous » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:48 am

Western Lousiana?!?! God dont go any farther west man.
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gkrangers

Vortex 1620z

#5872 Postby gkrangers » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:48 am

694
URNT12 KNHC 121620
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1620Z
B. 19 DEG 01 MIN N
81 DEG 50 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2408 M
D. 080 KT
E. 217 DEG 012 NM
F. 132 DEG 122 KT
G. 045 DEG 027 NM
H. 922 MB
I. 9 C/ 3056 M
J. 16 C/ 3048 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z.


Outer eyewall getting closer, moved 10 miles in 15 minutes.
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#5873 Postby B-Bear » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:48 am

Derek,

Check your PMs.
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#5874 Postby bfez1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:49 am

Big EZ wrote:I would wholeheartedly agree. I am not liking the apparent more and more west trend.


Are you in New Orleans, too?
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Ivan seems to continue to buck the models...

#5875 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:49 am

It seems that Ivan has continued to defy the models, moving more southerly and westerly than what has been forecasted. I was afraid this could possibly happen since extremely strong storms in the western caribbean and the GOM tend to go against the odds, (ie. Mitch 1998). I mentioned in an earlier post last evening about the lack of research and data in such monsters since they are such rare events. Could this possibly be leading to model data that is slightly incorrect? Only time will tell. My feeling is anyone from Central America all the way around to the Florida penisula needs to watch this storm carefully. Ivan may possibly have a mind of his own, just like Mitch did.
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#5876 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:49 am

I keep insisting this afternon on a hurricane watch for the Yucatan as Ivan still hasn't made the progue turn to the NW.I hope that the Mexican goverment is looking at the track this afternoon before it is too late.
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#5877 Postby x-y-no » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:50 am

Man that outer eyewall is shrinking fast!
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#5878 Postby Persepone » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:50 am

I sorta like the guy at MIT who wants to dump salad oil on the hurricane...
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Ivanova

#5879 Postby Ivanova » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:50 am

Big EZ wrote:I would wholeheartedly agree. I am not liking the apparent more and more west trend.




Isn't most of New Orleans below sea level ?

Do you know how many oil and gas facilities are
off shore from NO ? I looked for a map
of the positions of the Gulf oil and gas facilities
but couldn't find one ?


Quote from article:

"Most of the U.S. oil and gas production platforms
in the Gulf are off the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
That area would be threatened if the storm veered
farther west than the path it's currently expected to take."



http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... o&refer=us


*
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#5880 Postby JTD » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:04 pm

x-y-no wrote:Man that outer eyewall is shrinking fast!


Is this good news...does it mean it's weakening?
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