SE United States setup for worst flooding ever?

[Carolina_survivor]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
455 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-150900-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
444 PM EDT (344 PM CDT) TUE SEP 14 2004

...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION...

HURRICANE IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BECAUSE THE STORM IS
SO LARGE...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM.

INITIALLY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF
THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL...LINGERING IN THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT BY SUNDAY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE THESE COULD RESULT IN BOTH RIVER
FLOODING...A LONGER TERM EVENT...AND FLASH FLOODING...A SHORT TERM
EVENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SITUATION. OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK OF IVAN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH RAIN WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.

BESIDES THE RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORM APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RESIDENTS OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN AND
BE AWARE OF ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INTERNET
SOURCES...OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION THAT CARRY WEATHER
INFORMATION.

[huricanwatcher]

I have seen a few recent posts about it. This reminds me of stories of
the Great Flood of 1906 in the Carolinas. Very same circumstances.
two tropical systems converging, one from the atlantic, other from the SW
at the same time. Greatest official rainfall ever recorded in the Carolinas
during that episode.

sorry i be to differ that.. Dennis floyd 1999....... 500 year flood?...... i think we saw much much more

[Carolina_survivor]

Wow, Valdese! A little spot from my past (worked in Valdese for 2 years, back in my younger days) -- welcome!

[Guest]

^^^whoa I haven't seen numbers like that yet. Did he say anything about which way Ivan would track after the stall? The worst case would be east. Example of that would be Richmond VA

[Pileus]

Weatherfreak, welcome to the best WX forum on the internet. I heard Eric
Thomas mention the 20" too.

[weatherfreak38]

Thanks. I've been reading posts for a couple of weeks but finally decided to join in. Eric's forecast did not mention where the storm will go after Sunday. He stated that if the scenario plays out, it will sit there for at least Sat. and Sun.

[STORMSURGE]

For those of you in Goldsboro area, how much rain for tonite? Looking at intellicast, it appears as if problems might be starting long before Ivan and possible Jeanne.

[huricanwatcher]

just few showers and t-storms rolling threw..... dont sweat it....

[Guest]

weatherfreak38 I think if it does turn east, where it does it at is going to be horrid.

[Hugo_Charlotte]

Persistent Orographic lift into the Carolinas and Va.....could rival Floyd?

[weatherfreak38]

weatherfreak38 I think if it does turn east, where it does it at is going to be horrid.

Absolutely! We had what they stated as "historic" flooding in our area. I hate to imagine what would happen with this scenario.

[Carolina_survivor]

^^^whoa I haven't seen numbers like that yet. Did he say anything about which way Ivan would track after the stall? The worst case would be east. Example of that would be Richmond VA

Was wondering about that -- anyone know what impact will mountain flooding/heavy rains have on the rivers in eastern part of the state? We're already close to or at flood level (Martin County already reaching flood level with the Roanoke, the Tar River in Greenville is getting pretty high and it's supposed to shower all week).

I remember saying the same thing about how high the rivers were just before Floyd hit.

Can anyone explain why nearly all the models are taking that weird right hand turn towards the end? (Makes it look as though Ivan is going to be cruising along and then say, WOAH! There goes North Carolina! Can't skip over that state!)

[Skywatch_NC]

Hope more potential severe flooding won't actually cause rock boulders to slide down onto I-40...maybe hopefully steel bolts that were installed (years ago) on some of those boulder areas in western NC will help prevent that kind of catastrophic disaster of a major slide onto the interstate.

My prayers and thoughts w/ everyone there in the mountains.

Eric

[MBryant]

The stall probably has something to do with the huge high that is forecast to develope over the eastern US

[UpTheCreek]

Just thought I'd chime in since there are some locals. I live ON Brice's Creek, just off the Trent River in New Bern. I loosely gauge the level of the water by the pilings on my dock. We have a wind driven tide here and it hasn't budged from a fairly high level in 2 weeks.

If we get a lot of rain from Ivan and get a wind hit and tidal surge from Jeanne as well, we're going to have some major troubles even here in the east. Just have to cross our collective fingers! I'm praying for the mountain folks out in the western part of the state.

[MBismyPlayground]

Hope more potential severe flooding won't actually cause rock boulders to slide down onto I-40...maybe hopefully steel bolts that were installed (years ago) on some of those boulder areas in western NC will help prevent that kind of catastrophic disaster of a major slide onto the interstate.

My prayers and thoughts w/ everyone there in the mountains.

Eric

If I am not mistaken that exact thing happened with Fran.

[Guest]

It's pouring down rain here right now.

[MBismyPlayground]

No rain here but alot of wind......my water fountain is blowing all over...you can keep the rain and I will keep the wind

[Guest]

Neuse River Map http://dem.ehnr.state.nc.us/basinwide/w ... nneuse.htm

[Guest]

The Weather Channel just spoke of 20 to 30 inches of rain in some parts of the western Carolina's.