Shear and GOM Storm?

HouTXmetro · #1 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:38 pm

Is the shear expected to decrease anytime soon? Despite the Shear, the remants of Ivan seem to be organizing well. Will we have a Hurricane before it's all said and done.

Foladar · #2 Postby **Foladar** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:39 pm

hurricane? highly doubt it, trop depression/storm? who knows.

gulfcoast_texas · #3 Postby **gulfcoast_texas** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:40 pm

I HOPE NOT..IM IN FREEPORT...I JUST WANT SUM RAIN 8-)

IF WE GET A WEAK TS THEN ITS ALL GOOD BUT NOTHING MORE!

#4 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:46 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Is the shear expected to decrease anytime soon? Despite the Shear, the remants of Ivan seem to be organizing well. Will we have a Hurricane before it's all said and done.

My understanding based on what I have read from various sources, is that the shear conditions will lessen the farther west the system progresses. There is an upper-level low to the SSW, evident on water vapor imagery, that is partially responsible for the shearing winds, and it appears to be slowly moving to the WSW.

Combining the lessening shear with the fact that the SSTs in the Gulf are much higher west of about 91 degrees W longitude, and it's easy to see why they think the system has some development potential. It will be an interesting 36 hours ahead in the west-central Gulf.

djti · #5 Postby **djti** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:48 pm

looks like the center is completely exposed again with convection blown well away......the shear appears extreme at this point...

HouTXmetro · #6 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:51 pm

I agree

golter · #7 Postby **golter** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:01 pm

agree again, Im not going to evacuate Pasadena just yet....

All kidding aside, I think local mets have done a good job of following 94L. They all are in pretty good agreement that we have to watch it, but more of a good rainmaker than anything else. I got a good shower last night, but only for :10. I'm sick of $120 water bills...

Yankeegirl · #8 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:46 pm

I was watching the news this morning, and the local met on Fox kept calling this mess in the Gulf a Depression... The other local at noon said it has a 50/50 shot of developing into a depression... So is it, or isn't it? Inquiring minds want to know?!

Also I noticed that I did get a little bit of rain overnight, my cars were wet this morning.. Didn't need to water! Yeah!

Also thought it was quite breezy around here.. Felt great this morning!

golter · #9 Postby **golter** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:48 pm

It is not a depression....as of this time.

#10 Postby **Roxy** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:56 pm

any further thoughts on shear with Ivan?

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 6:05 pm

Upper leve wind shear in the north-central and northern Gulf of Mexico is between 30 and 40 knots, perhaps 45 to 50 knots in a small area.

HouTXmetro · #12 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 6:34 pm

So much for relaxing shear. Ivan doesn't stand a chance.

#13 Postby **Roxy** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 6:49 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:So much for relaxing shear. Ivan doesn't stand a chance.

LOL. That's what I wanted to hear.

HouTXmetro · #14 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:01 pm

Well maybe I spoke to soon. Is it me or does it look like the shear is now decreasing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#15 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:02 pm

It will be decreasing shortly, but we should probably look at the WV loop to see this. If shear doesn't let up soon, the circulation will get dragged into the LA coast by morning, especially since the convection has been dragging it to the north all day.

Ivanova · #16 Postby **Ivanova** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:05 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Ivan seem to be organizing well.

Will we have a Hurricane before
it's all said and done.

Double Icon :cool:

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