New Vortex on Ivan: Pressure down to 998mb!

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 231212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1212Z
B. 28 DEG 58 MIN N
92 DEG 13 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 127 DEG 017 NM
F. 196 DEG 33 KT
G. 122 DEG 026 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 23 C/ 325 M
J. 25 C/ 311 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF866 4509A IVAN OB 02
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 1203Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

Winds are weak though it's on the eastern quad, where they there's little convection.

[loon]

interesting...

[Air Force Met]

Well...last night on talking tropics I predicted a 995mb storm. Looks like I might have been a bit too high.

[Innotech]

clouds outside very turbulent. fun to watch, but Im keeping an eye out for funnel clouds

[Thunder44]

They also found a 70kt flight level wind. Which would explain why they are going to up the winds to 60mph at 11am.

URNT14 KNHC 231238
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01278 10907 10012 12322 16026
02279 20909 20012 22322 17024
03281 30912 30012 32323 17013
04283 40913 40011 42322 17021
05285 50915 50011 52322 18022
06287 60917 60010 62322 19027
07288 70920 70007 72520 20026
MF287 M0918 MF033
OBS 01 AT 1139Z
OBS 07 AT 1207Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 18015
01292 10922 10007 12222 08057
02293 20926 22494 21813 06038
03295 30928 32512 31712 06036
04297 40930 42519 41411 08029
MF290 M0922 MF070
OBS 01 AT 1217Z
OBS 04 AT 1234Z
OBS 04 SFC WND /////
RMK AF866 4509A IVAN OB 04

[ROCK]

Well...last night on talking tropics I predicted a 995mb storm. Looks like I might have been a bit too high.

AFM, what do you forsee later this afternoon for DT Houston. I would like to go home early. I know we will be on the east side so not really much right???

[Air Force Met]

Well...last night on talking tropics I predicted a 995mb storm. Looks like I might have been a bit too high.

AFM, what do you forsee later this afternoon for DT Houston. I would like to go home early. I know we will be on the east side so not really much right???

Not going to be much here at all. We are not shutting down anything here in south Houston. I expect we may get some squalls (gusts to maybe 20-30) later tonight or tomorrow once the center moves inland and drifts north of us...IF we get into the southernly inflow. If it continues to move like it is now...and doesn't take the NHC forecasted turn to the west...we won't get anything.

At this point...I'm just ready for some cold fronts. I'm ready to sit on my screened in porch...sip coffee...and relax.

[southerngale]

Recon shows the center at 28 DEG 58 MIN N
92 DEG 13 MIN W

The 7am position was 28.9 N... 92.1 W


Did this wobble ever so slightly south in a short time or is this just basically unchanged?

Also, on radar it appears to be moving more nw and on satellite, it appears to be moving more west. Which is it?

[ROCK]

Well...last night on talking tropics I predicted a 995mb storm. Looks like I might have been a bit too high.

AFM, what do you forsee later this afternoon for DT Houston. I would like to go home early. I know we will be on the east side so not really much right???

Not going to be much here at all. We are not shutting down anything here in south Houston. I expect we may get some squalls (gusts to maybe 20-30) later tonight or tomorrow once the center moves inland and drifts north of us...IF we get into the southernly inflow. If it continues to move like it is now...and doesn't take the NHC forecasted turn to the west...we won't get anything.

At this point...I'm just ready for some cold fronts. I'm ready to sit on my screened in porch...sip coffee...and relax.

as always thank you for your insight. I will pass this on to my colleagues but not my boss. Maybe I can hype it up enough to get her to cut us loose around 3ish...

[dhweather]

He's so sheared, it appears he's moving more north on satellite, but the low-level is moving wnw.

[golter]

28 deg 58 min is actually 28.97, its 58 out of 60 minutes, not 28.58

[southerngale]

Ah ok...thanks.

[canegrl04]

We're suppose to get some rain from Ivan,so thats a good thing because September hasbeen so dry here