Thoughts Please: Will she will strengthen before landfall?

[dolphinslady]

I am still in a little bit of shock that we are in the warning area, again. We're boarded up and I guess we're staying, especially because the forecast path is so uncertain. I just can't believe it.

Anyway, I heard one met on TWC saying that Jeanne's eye was possibly undergoing a few changes...but they aren't sure exactly what she's trying to do. From his tone, it sounded as though he was hinting a possible double eyewall forming or something like that.

So I guess my main concern, obviously, is if she is possibly going to strenghten, as Charley did. Or does it seem as though she will remain a 2, minimal 3? Enlighten me, please!

Cheryl

[chris_fit]

http://www.aboutmylife.net/users/chris_fit

[djti]

yes...i think she will strengthen to a strong cat 2/min cat 3......right around 110-115mph at landfall....

jmho.

[PurdueWx80]

Well, the NHC forecast has a Cat 3 storm at landfall, so yes, we should expect another major hurricane. A lot of times, annular hurricanes form when dry air is ingested into the center of the storm. Once they mix this out and the center reconsolidates (meaning one eyewall takes over), there is no reason to believe we won't have a large eye and a deepening storm. The outflow looks very good in all quadrants and has begun rapidly expanding. W/ the warmer waters ahead, the only thing to keep Jeanne from Cat 3 (or Cat 4 even) is dry air and an eyewall replacement cycle or two. Of course, there won't be too much time for that given the acceleration we've seen today. Bottom line..a Cat 3 storm will likely impact the central/south-eastern FL coast and will likely ride north along or just in from the coast. Many many communities along the coastline will be greatly affected, so be ready.

[Brent]

Good chance at a Cat 3. 115-120 mph. I don't see her getting any stronger, but that's subject to change.

[Sanibel]

The outflow is starting to expand in perfect form.


No data for intensity. Wait until tonight...

[Janie34]

I see no reason for Jeanne not to strengthen into a Cat 3 storm. Maybe, just maybe she has an outside chance at Cat 4 status. Thats not said to alarm people, however it is a possibility that needs to be kept in mind. Intensity forecasts are very difficult, and particularly so in this case. She'll be moving over those very warm Gulf Stream waters soon, and the overall structure of the storm is impressive. Jeanne continues to have good outflow, although it doesn't appear to be as impressive as yesterday.

[dhweather]

I'd say she'll be a cat 3 at landfall

[caneman]

The sad reality is she may already be a cAt. 3 based on 5:00 discussion. Cat. 4 with warmer waters ahead isn't out of the question. She is in the early stages of the buzzsaw look. Not good.

[rainstorm]

if jean moves west at 12+ she will deepen. if it slows and turns before landfall, it will weaken

[caneman]

if jean moves west at 12+ she will deepen. if it slows and turns before landfall, it will weaken

She is getting the buzzsaw look and not even in the warmest waters yet. Not good.

[STORMSURGE]

I would not at all be shocked if she wasnt a CAT 3 now.These last few loops sure look as if she is deepening.

[WXBUFFJIM]

965 mb supports a 96 kt intensity. So 85 kts at 5 PM maybe underdoing it a bit. 100-105 kts at landfall is almost certain given the warmer waters ahead of the hurricane and better outflow. Definitely a situation to take seriously along Florida's east coast and really for all of florida quite honestly.

Jim

[tallywx]

Outflow is expanding in all quadrants of the storm. More or less perfect outflow. The only hindrance is water temperatures and the remaining dry air ingested in the inner core.

Here's the thing: she's going to move over warmer water near the Bahamas no matter what (83-84 F). At that time, however, just to her south, will be even warmer waters...like around 86F to 88F. That means that her main inflow stream, that being the SW flow in her SE quadrant, will suck in air that moves over this warmer water. With latent heat release, especially during the night, this could infuse energy and moisture back into her core (which will happen anyway as the core itself passes over warmer water). Cat 3 at landfall is becoming more and more of a sure bet, with the main consideration now being...at what end of Cat 3. Not good.

[djti]

still looks messy to me......dont see any rapid strengthening or much change to the inner core in the last couple of hours that would suggest a 15mph increase...

i think dry air is and will continue to be an issue....capping major intensification...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-730W.jpg

[WXBUFFJIM]

Damage still done.

[Praxus]

Look at the latest sat pic -

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Thats a lot of red for Jeanne, she's definitely strengthening.

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah, there isn't a lot of difference in damage between 110 mph and 111 mph.

[Brent]

Yeah, there isn't a lot of difference in damage between 110 mph and 111 mph.

It moves 1 mph faster.

[Pebbles]

still looks messy to me......dont see any rapid strengthening or much change to the inner core in the last couple of hours that would suggest a 15mph increase...

i think dry air is and will continue to be an issue....capping major intensification...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-730W.jpg

She looks like she is intesifying to me...not rapidly..but sometimes 'slow and steady wins the race' Believe there is a great possibility for mid Cat 3. I don't believe the dry air is effecting her anywhere near as much as we would like.