WV loop - this will be interestng

[dhweather]

It looks to me like the ridge is building Westward into the GOM, but
the ULL in the central GOL is sliding East. This will be interesting to watch in the next 12-24 hours.

IMHO, South Florida is looking more and more likely for landfall.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Foladar]

where in S FLA do you say?

[PurdueWx80]

I noticed this too...the clouds around the upper low actually bulged back to the WEST during and after the eclipse. That is a tell-tale sign of a strong ridge building/moving west.

[dhweather]

Right now. unless something changes Jeanne's course, I'd say right at our just South of West Palm Beach.


The bad news for you, if the ceonvection stays as nasty on the South side, as is showing on IR images right now, you will see some strong weather in your neck of the woods too. The good news? You should be South of landfall.

Again, that's my opinion. One good wobble left or right and that could change a lot.

[dhweather]

I noticed this too...the clouds around the upper low actually bulged back to the WEST during and after the eclipse. That is a tell-tale sign of a strong ridge building/moving west.

You got it - and if that continues, she'll probably be in the GOM for some period of time. That is going to cause a tremendous amount of anxiety
if that verifies.

[cape_escape]

I noticed this too...the clouds around the upper low actually bulged back to the WEST during and after the eclipse. That is a tell-tale sign of a strong ridge building/moving west.

You got it - and if that continues, she'll probably be in the GOM for some period of time. That is going to cause a tremendous amount of anxiety
if that verifies.

GULP....in the GOM!!!

[Foladar]

Right now. unless something changes Jeanne's course, I'd say right at our just South of West Palm Beach.


The bad news for you, if the ceonvection stays as nasty on the South side, as is showing on IR images right now, you will see some strong weather in your neck of the woods too. The good news? You should be South of landfall.

Again, that's my opinion. One good wobble left or right and that could change a lot.

What kind of winds? I hate to sound greedy or stupid, but I just want some winds :| .. 60 mph is good!

[yoda]

There was a slight wobble for 2 frames WNW per IR.. but DUE W seems to have resumed...

[dhweather]

Yep. Right now, it appears that the battle of
Ridge and ULL (and trough) is occuring around 87W
and the Ridge is holding its own if not winning right now. That's why I say the next 12-24 will be very important.

[dhweather]

Right now. unless something changes Jeanne's course, I'd say right at our just South of West Palm Beach.


The bad news for you, if the ceonvection stays as nasty on the South side, as is showing on IR images right now, you will see some strong weather in your neck of the woods too. The good news? You should be South of landfall.

Again, that's my opinion. One good wobble left or right and that could change a lot.

What kind of winds? I hate to sound greedy or stupid, but I just want some winds :| .. 60 mph is good!

I know, some wins is fun.

You'll probably have TS winds, maybe cat1. OF course, if she makes cat4
you might get closer to cat 2 winds.

[Ground_Zero_92]

I noticed this too...the clouds around the upper low actually bulged back to the WEST during and after the eclipse. That is a tell-tale sign of a strong ridge building/moving west.

You got it - and if that continues, she'll probably be in the GOM for some period of time. That is going to cause a tremendous amount of anxiety
if that verifies.

Can you explain what the ridge will do to the storm's path?

If the ridge is building west, do not expect much, if any northern component. Jeanne would stay more due west with some wsw possible depending on the strength of the ridge.

[dhweather]

I noticed this too...the clouds around the upper low actually bulged back to the WEST during and after the eclipse. That is a tell-tale sign of a strong ridge building/moving west.

You got it - and if that continues, she'll probably be in the GOM for some period of time. That is going to cause a tremendous amount of anxiety
if that verifies.

Can you explain what the ridge will do to the storm's path?

Essentially, the ridge helps dictate the path of the cyclone.

In this case, the ridge appears to be building Westward, to somewhere
around 87W. What that means is, if that holds, there is nothing to reallly
cause a Northward trend as she approaches S FLorida. This could lead to
her getting into the GOM.

If the ridge weakens/erodes on its west side, that's where the Northerly component kicks in.

[sunupgal]

If Jeanne were to get into the GOM. how would Tampa fare? I live on an island west of Tampa, and we have not really been advised to do anything except "keep checking back with the news". How much time would we have to prepare?

[dhweather]

That all depends on the recurve - if she gets into the GOM then starts the curve, Tampa might
see more than they are expecting.

It will be very important to watch this storm today.

I'll say this from experience - I boarded up and
left for Ivan. My anenometer got one gust to 50, that was it (80 miles West of landfall). Under the same circumstances, I'd do it again. Nothing here worth my or my families life. My point, no harm in preparing. It's time consuming and frustrating, but worth it.

[sunupgal]

Yeah....I was afraid you would say that. I think everyone here will go into panic mode about noon today if Jeanne doesn't start turning by then. Thanks.