It may take a while

[george_r_1961]

This is NOT a rare year. Its only late July for crying out loud. It may be another 2 weeks or so yet though as conditions arent quite right yet.

[rainstorm]

Helen, you also need to take a chill pill. Patience is the key word here.

i just happen to know matthew loves tropical weather and is quite knowlegeable. he wasnt trying to hurt anyones feelings in any way.
he is cool and just wants to participate. lets all calm down. i am very protective of matt because i feel he can be a great additiona to the board.

[bahamaswx]

could someone provide the correlation between the south epac systems and the north epac systems. This may provide the bets clue to the dispute (cannot ssh into orca from home, so I cannot make this calculation myself, at least until I finish correlating TPW and intensity changes of major hurricanes tomorrow at work)

Agreed. I'd be interested to see the results, even though I'm still under the opinion that a storm or two in the S Atlantic would have absolutely no bearing on the N Atlantic season.

[Derek Ortt]

There is a year that we can somewhat compare, and that is 1991 when we had a SA storm, and 8 NS in the N Atl. Yes, that was a nino year. Take a look at the latest NHC EPAC Renolyds SST analysis http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

this is starting to tend toward a warm ENSO as we have a 55+ degree region with above average SST in the EPAC extending to the dateline in the CPAC. So, prehaps the 1991 case cannot totally be discounted. That being said, one case is <b><u>NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE</b></u> and is why I wish we had climate records back for a much longer period of time than we do

[senorpepr]

thats cool, and im not going to blast you for saying it. lets lay off matthew. he just expressed an opinion. i happen to know he loves the tropics and just wants to express his thoughts. lighten up, some.

Let me clarify. I have no problems with Matthew expressing his opinions. We all have them and we're all entitled to relay them. However, when someone, with no bona fide scientific evidence to back him up, starts to "blast" a forecaster who spends hours researching data, I'm going to stick up for the forecaster.

None of your reseach is good this year because of it!

David hit it on the nail...

One anomaly in each basin does not throw out the climatology or statistics from the past hundred years!! Yes it does give us something to look at and research further, especially after this season is finished and we have the statistics for it, BUT IT DOES NOT NEGATE ANYONES RESEARCH!!!!!

I think that's what we've been trying to say here. Don't raise up the white flag yet when climatology says things will still been slightly above average. Furthermore, YES this (the two SoAtl cyclones) gives us something to study in the future, but until we can sift through that data at a later time, we CANNOT throw out climatology.

[Stormsfury]

As for some anomalies in the South Atlantic during the SA Hurricane ... here's 5 images from the timeframes from 2/23/04-4/3/04 .. the 6th link and images is a 4 month SSTA loop ... source: UNISYS ...

As one can clearly see ... what equatorial heat? The SSTA anomalies north of the 25ºS line were running BLO normal ... so basically, I don't see just how there could have been any latent heat release from the South Atlantic hurricane from a system so far south of the Equator.

The biggest standout is --- of course, the huge warm anomaly off the South American Continent ... exactly where the South Atlantic TC was embedded ...











Week ending APR 5th maps are blank .. and missing ...



CLICK on this for the 4 month SSTA anomalies from 4/10/04 to current

[cycloneye]

i think matthew is just making the point that this is a rare year. considering how small anyone's sample is, i think he at least makes an interesting point. and i dont think he was being disrespectful in the least when he said it

NO one will not dispute that the two SA TC's are not a rare event. It was an added bonus to worldwide tropical weather enthusiasts. The original point of this thread IMHO is the fact that we're off to a more typical start in the NORTH Atlantic ...

More details on a new thread. ...

Yes SF my original theme of this thread is about the pattern still not summerlike yet as the tutt trough still is hanging around.

[Stormsfury]

There is a year that we can somewhat compare, and that is 1991 when we had a SA storm, and 8 NS in the N Atl. Yes, that was a nino year. Take a look at the latest NHC EPAC Renolyds SST analysis http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

this is starting to tend toward a warm ENSO as we have a 55+ degree region with above average SST in the EPAC extending to the dateline in the CPAC. So, prehaps the 1991 case cannot totally be discounted. That being said, one case is <b><u>NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE</b></u> and is why I wish we had climate records back for a much longer period of time than we do

Well, yes and no ... Niño was already well established and fairly strong going into the tropical season in 1991 ... not quite so this year, however, I am quite alarmed at the EQ DEPTH warming occurring now as we post.

Furthermore, the warming along the SFC EQ PAC waters appears to be in relation to another Kelvin wave (associated with what will be our next wet phase MJO in the next couple of weeks on our side of the globe) ... and tapping into some of the deeper EQ waters which NOW have warmed significantly from a few months ago.

Back in the winter/spring months, there were a couple of MONSTROSITIES of Kelvin Waves, which easily could have induced the onset of a warm ENSO event, but the EQ waters that was tapped were only normal, with slight deviations above or below.

The SSTA pattern is interesting, nonetheless ...

[donsutherland1]

Rainstorm,

1982, 1983, 1994, and 1997 all featured El Niños. The MEI for those years (May-June through September-October) was as follows:

1982 +1.632
1983 +1.171
1994 +0.808
1997 +2.573

2004 has no El Niño. It is a neutral year. So far, the MEI is averaging 0.286.

That's a world of difference. So odds are strongly against a 1982, 1983, 1994, or 1997-type season.

[NCn8ochaser]

I would say 8/4/1... but I'm just guessing. (Seriously, I don't know where to look for the data yall get, lol)

[rainstorm]

if an el nino hits at the peak of the season, with all the other negative factors, i think we will see 7/4/1.
there will be nothing for awhile

[Stormsfury]

if an el nino hits at the peak of the season, with all the other negative factors, i think we will see 7/4/1.
there will be nothing for awhile

What OTHER NEG factors? Fill us in ...

[Matthew5]

For one a tropical cyclone doe's not have to form near the equartor(5 to 15 degrees). To move laten heat around. Just that a lone is never really small by a human standards. But even the enviroment that made it just right for those two tropical cyclones, is a Pattern shift that can effect alot more then just the south Atlantic. I mean a favable pattern for the south Atlatnic could even means maybe even a slight global pattern shift? That could be a rare event or a climate change? Personally I don't really believe then most of this Global warming scare but it could well be??? What I'm trying to say is that for the south Atlatnic to become favable it might have to effect a large area. This is something to look into over the next few years. In something else is the record cold temperatures forming the trough over the midwest that have been pushing fronts down into the northern gulf for the last few weeks. That also might be part of this??? Another year of record tornadoes??? Record highs in Alaska??? All something that could point to some kind of shift in the weather pattern. I'm sorry if I disrepected some one because really I think you guys do a really good job!

[rainstorm]

if an el nino hits at the peak of the season, with all the other negative factors, i think we will see 7/4/1.
there will be nothing for awhile

What OTHER NEG factors? Fill us in ...

lots of dry air, dry indian monsoon, east pac active=shear in atlantic, super tutt. numerous ulls, and i am less convinced of a pattern change. will the bermuda high show up? i see no chance for an african wave to develop for some time

[caneman]

I'm not going to throw my hat in the slower season category right now. However, 2 things concern me. #1.) We had a front drop down into the Gulf a week or two ago and more than 1 Met indicated how unusual that is in July and now there is another front that dropped down into the Gulf. So not once but twice has this unusual event occured this month. #2.) The SAL events seems to be far more than I can recall in the past few years. Would like to here some Mets/experienced posters insight on this.

[tallywx]

bump for a good retrospective

[CocoaBill]

thanks for the memories. I can't believe how the season responded to the pleas for action!

[Brent]

LOL!

[cycloneye]

Wow time has telled the story of this season.Remember in june and july when I said BE PATIENCE?

[drudd1]

Yikes, what a difference a bit of time makes.