West Caribbean Re-Fire

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Sanibel
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West Caribbean Re-Fire

#1 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:06 am

As I speculated last night the west Caribbean wave has consolidated under favorable flaring conditions. You could see the first burst at the eclipse.

The reason I made a new post on this is because the area has done something not adequately described in other posts. If you noticed, 36 hours ago the entire west Atlantic basin suddenly shut-down as far as deep flaring of convection. The Windwards wave lost most of its, and the west Caribbean wave went dry as well. This is a phenomenon I've seen before. It is like the whole theater flashes with negativity. Proof of this is that both the Caribbean and Windwards waves have rebounded with more condensed convection. The Caribbean one more south towards the original flaring of several days ago. They were there the whole time, just badly affected by negativity...


I'd be watching both, especially the one by Honduras...
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Re: West Caribbean Re-Fire

#2 Postby TS Zack » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:09 am

I think that was mainly from the convection losing daytime heating.
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:12 am

To try to best describe what is going on I would suggest the wave was struggling along under hostile synoptics. It was unable to improve. Now the disruptive environment is easing allowing this lingering wave to re-organize. I'm still not certain on this one's chances, but this much longevity is probably a sign of better chances for formation. One thing is for sure, any consolidated persistence in this climatology is automatically worth watching...
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:14 am

I think that was mainly from the convection losing daytime heating.




Possibly, but the period was longer than one diurnal cycle AND the entire basin was affected. The only thing with any decent convection was Lisa...
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 12:16 pm

After running the visible loop you can see the situation better. Cycloneye could be right about the drift into Central America.

There appears to be a small hint of surface rotation just NE of Costa Rica. This unformed center has curvature from the rest of the convection. The only way it could develop is to lift straight north, however the Caribbean flow looks to be pretty east-west right now.

A second axis could grab further NE into the convection, but doesn't look likely right now.

Just above Cayman is yesterday's outbreak vortex in de-convected form. I think it is more mid than surface level and shouldn't become the center - but you never know if it re-fires itself...

Nothing to do but watch...
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 4:22 pm

5PM


Still there and deep flaring. If there is a surface center associated with this that drifts over Central America then the flare will dissipate.


One thing is for sure, if you are looking for West Caribbean development this is what you should be looking for...
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#7 Postby BillC » Sat Oct 02, 2004 4:53 pm

Sanibel,

Good observations, IMO. I'm seeing rotation and a northward drift ... I sure wouldn't discount the possibility of development in the next day or two.
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#8 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Oct 02, 2004 6:33 pm

7:32 PM....convection appears more symmetrical...has refocussed northeast of the honduran/nicaraguan border....no rotation noted...stay tuned...
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 7:49 pm

That small round flare in the center of the symmetry on the coast of southern Nicaragua is probably the disturbance's center going inland and over to EPAC. The rest of the wave should now dissipate...
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#10 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:22 pm

We'll see what is left of that weak wave material tomorrow...
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#11 Postby BillC » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:29 pm

Sanibel ... your earlier post may be right, BUT I still see rotation at about
18 N and 82 W on the satellite loop below. The convection around that rotation has quieted down, but I won't be surprised if it flares up again when the sun rises this morning.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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