BREAKING NEWS=5PM-TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Matthew Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 08, 2004

...Thirteenth tropical storm of the season forms in the western Gulf
of Mexico...

Interests throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Matthew.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 24.2 north... longitude 93.8 west or about
260 miles east-southeast of Brownsville Texas.

Matthew is moving toward the east near 10 mph. A turn to the
east-northeast is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...mainly
to the east and northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Strong winds near the Louisiana coast are not directly related to
Matthew...but are associated with the pressure gradient between
Matthew and high pressure over the southeastern United States.
Coastal flooding is already occurring in some areas with onshore
flow.

A large area of rainfall extends from Matthew northeastward for
several hundred miles. These rains are expected to continue for at
least the next day or two.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.2 N... 93.8 W. Movement
toward...east near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[LAwxrgal]

Ugh...

[jax]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00414.html

[TampaFl]

Not again

[Rainband]

yeah

[cycloneye]

Wow recon found more stronger winds and pressure down to 1001.Well after all the storm2k forecast team was right this morning that it was a TD.

[Brent]

Landfall near Fort Walton Beach Late Sunday or Early Monday.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00414.html

Good news... no strengthening before landfall.

[LAwxrgal]

UGH....another one for FLA?

[hiflyer]

URNT12 KNHC 082026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/2026Z
B. 24 DEG 18 MIN N
93 DEG 57 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 037 DEG 45 NM
F. 108 DEG 48 KT
G. 033 DEG 031 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 292 M
J. 25 C/ 293 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. .1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 02DDA INVEST OB 15
MAX FL WIND 48 KT N QUAD 2012Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

;

[ColdFront77]

Not good for the online weather community?

[Stormcenter]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH another Florida threat!!!

Oh well they "expect" it to remain at 40mph
for the next 24 hours. I guess that's the
good news. I know the people there don't need
the rain to slow down the cleaning process.

[cape_escape]

Florida really must have a big red X on it this year!

[ColdFront77]

It will have to have more of an easterly movement than the official forecast track to affected Florida more than is currently
expected, which doesn't appear to be too low, anyway.

Another thing, it's nice to have a tropical system develop on Storm2K's 2nd anniversary.

[Stormcenter]

I believe Derek's forecast on Mathew is more likely
to pan out than the NHC's, IMO.

[TampaFl]

Well another weekend, and you guessed it, another tropical cyclone to affect Florida . At least we had a nice weekend last week.

Robert

[tronbunny]

Whheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Here we go again!

[ColdFront77]

I believe Derek's forecast on Mathew is more likely
to pan out than the NHC's, IMO.

If that forecast track verifies, then Florida will see little and nothing, depending on location.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Matthew Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 08, 2004

the Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico found a
reasonably well-defined circulation with strong winds...48 kt at a
flight level of 600 ft...near the center. While the convective
organization of the system is poor and highly asymmetric...the core
circulation dictates that tropical cyclone advisories be initiated
at this time. Although the flight-level winds would support an
intensity estimate of 40 kt...these winds were observed over a very
small area and might not be representative. The initial intensity
is set to 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 085/9...with the center following the deep
convection through much of the day today. There is considerable
uncertainty regarding the future course and strength of Matthew.
Global model guidance indicates the formation of a separate
baroclinically forced low center in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico...and the beginnings of this low are already apparent in the
surface observations. If this occurs...and Matthew survives as a
separate entity...it could take a gently curving path around the
periphery of the new low. This is the scenario indicated by the
simpler steering models such as the BAM family of models. The GFDL
shows a much sharper turn to the north...while the
GFS...UKMET...and Canadian models show only the developing
baroclinic low...which spends most of the next 2-3 days over
Louisiana. The official forecast leans towards the BAM
guidance...in part because this guidance appears to be more
consistent with current trends...but I am not real comfortable
being so far away from the normally good-performing global
guidance.
There is moderate shear over Matthew now...and global guidance
indicates that this shear will increase...at least over the western
Gulf. If the track forecast is wrong and Matthew ends up moving
more to the north...it would likely find itself in an environment
unfavorable for strengthening. A more leisurely track across the
central or eastern Gulf would afford more of an opportunity for
development.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/2100z 24.2n 93.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 24.6n 92.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 25.3n 91.1w 35 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 26.3n 89.2w 35 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 28.0n 87.5w 35 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 32.0n 86.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 12/1800z...dissipated

[Deenac813]

You have got to be kidding me! UGH! I have not been paying attention to the tropics and now this!

[tronbunny]

at least it doesn't look like a hurricane will strike Florida...YET. (geeze with the way this season has gone, I'd almost expect a surprise like the WPAC supertyphoon)
But looks to be a significant rain event and from what I read here, not so much for Florida. (I mean the already waterlogged part)
But...we shall see.