Nicole Could Pose a Threat to Nova Scotia

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, substropical storm Nicole developed, bringing the total number of named storms for the 2004 season to 14. At this point in time, it appears likely that Nicole could make landfall somewhere in Nova Scotia.

If so, this would not be entirely surprising. Most years similar to 2004 with respect to the major global indices, saw Atlantic Canada impacted by at least one tropical system or extratropical system.

The synoptic situation argues strongly against Nicole's being shoved out to sea. In fact, the situation bears at least some similarities with that that saw Hurricane Karen (2001) make landfall in Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Karen's Track:


Synoptic similarities:
• Retrogression of high pressure over the northern Atlantic Ocean, with the high blocking any out-to-sea escape.
• An approaching trough that extends into the central USA

It should be noted that the forecast concerning the 2004 trough indicates that it should not be as pronounced as that in 2001. Consequently, I don't believe we'll see the wobbles whereby Karen headed north-northeastward only to be reeled back toward the north-northwest due to the retrogression.

Also, based on the high's westward progress coming to a near standstill, I don't believe Nicole will maintain a north-northwest track for too long. Rather, a gradual turn to the north, north-northeast, and then northeast should occur probably beginning tonight or tomorrow.

Synoptic Situation for Hurricane Karen:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=330746

ECMWF Forecast:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=330747

Based on the early synoptic ideas, my initial estimated track for Nicole follows:

33.0N 67.2W
35.0N 67.6W
37.5N 67.4W
40.0N 65.4W
42.5N 63.4W
45.0N 61.5W

[deguy50]

thanx for the info it looks like are neighbors up north are going to get into the action

[donsutherland1]

This will be an interesting situation to watch. Fortunately, I strongly doubt that Nicole will ever rival Juan in terms of strength. Moreover, it probably won't become a hurricane.

[baygirl_1]

My family was in Nova Scotia for a family reunion about 15 years ago when Hurricane Bertha was threatening the Maritimes (before she turned away, thank goodness!). We, being from the Gulf Coast, of course, were worried about the storm. However, the locals did not have a clue what could have been coming their way. The local news had no info about the possibility of a storm coming their way. The only way we knew about it was from talking with people back in Alabama! I hope they have gotten better about following these things up there.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Sadly they haven't gotten much better about taking tropical, and subtropical, systems seriously here in the Maritimes in the last 15 odd years. Hurricane Juan developed, and hit Eastern Nova Scotia last year on a weekend, and they only started covering it locally about 8 hr before landfall Thank God Juan was quite small in area coverage as hurricanes go, and a cat. one at landfall is all I can say. Also one must keep in mind that it is Canadian Thanksgiving this weekend, so that will further limited the attention this one receives

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Atlantic Canada Radar Image:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=ERN

[donsutherland1]

As of 8 pm, Subtropical Storm Nicole was centered at 32.8N 65.6W. Over the past few hours, she had resumed more of a northward component and was heading northeastward. Earlier, she had been drifting off to the east.

Taking into consideration the latest computer guidance and a relatively unchanged synoptic situation--though the high is somewhat farther to the north and east than earlier suggested-- it still appears that Nicole could make landfall on Nova Scotia.

At the same time, for those who are curious as to whether storms such as Nicole ever pose a threat to the U.S. Mainland, of the 13 tropical storms or hurricanes that were centered at 30.0N and northward and 65.0W-69.0W in September or later, none made U.S. landfall. Therefore, odds are strongly against Nicole's making a U.S. landfall even if she does come more westward again.

Estimated Track:
33.0N 65.6W
35.0N 65.6W
37.5N 64.9W
40.0N 65.2W
42.5N 65.4W
45.0N 64.7W

[kevin]

Also one must keep in mind that it is Canadian Thanksgiving this weekend, so that will further limited the attention this one receives <<

Do you all eat polar bear for thanksgiving like we eat turkey?? =)

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick note:

When I refer to storms such as Nicole, I'm referring to storms that continue to head northward.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Also one must keep in mind that it is Canadian Thanksgiving this weekend, so that will further limited the attention this one receives <<

Do you all eat polar bear for thanksgiving like we eat turkey?? =)

Ignorance is bliss

[montrealboy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_15.gif

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

[kevin]

Ignorance is bliss<<

I just assumed the turkeys would freeze in your clime is all. =)

[Andy_L]

sure thing Kev....you toss your skis on the roof of your car and come on up here in July....you can share my igloo if you need somewhere to stay

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, Nicole accelerated to the northeast, tracking at a 35° angle from 33.1N 65.0W to 34.9N 63.6W this morning. However, even though Nicole is to the east of where I expected her to be, this does not mean that Nova Scotia is out of the woods. It is not.

Of course, Nicole could be absorbed by a non-tropical low as it moves toward Nova Scotia. However, Nova Scotia, New Foundland, and perhaps parts of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island should experience a period of heavy rain and damaging winds.

The CIMSS 250mb-850mb steering winds illustration shows that Nicole's northeastward movement should be evolving into a more northerly movement:



When one factors in the slow retrogression of the ridge depicted on the model guidance, the case for a turn to the north and then possibly north-northwest is strengthened.

Now that Nicole is moving toward its endgame, I have greater confidence that the outlined track will prove reasonable.

Estimated Track:
35.0N 63.6W
37.5N 62.7W
40.0N 62.4W
42.5N 63.5W
45.0N 62.5W

Finally, for all Canadians, have a wonderful Thanksgiving Day holiday!

[dougjp]

Ignorance is bliss<<

I just assumed the turkeys would freeze in your clime is all. =)

Yes you are right And of course your isolationist school system would have taught you about Canada's favorite spectator sport? Which is watching our neighbours come north with snow skis on the roof when its 90 degrees F. The look on their faces is just priceless.