Freezing Rain In NW FL?

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Opal storm

Freezing Rain In NW FL?

#1 Postby Opal storm » Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:33 pm

Accuweather is showing a mix of rain and freezing rain Sunday night on the 19th in Crestview,Fl.I know this will change,but is there any chance of us seeing any winter weather down here anytime soon?
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Re: Freezing Rain In NW FL?

#2 Postby wxguy25 » Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:38 pm

Opal storm wrote:Accuweather is showing a mix of rain and freezing rain Sunday night on the 19th in Crestview,Fl.I know this will change,but is there any chance of us seeing any winter weather down here anytime soon?


Don't get your hopes up. That it about as likely as John Kerry having the required number of votes to win Ohio after all. Sorry, probably not going to happen.

I would advise you NOT to pay close attention to the exact details expressed in the accuweather long-range
.
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#3 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:47 pm

Yep, I agree...
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Dec 09, 2004 7:12 pm

I would advise you NOT to pay close attention to the exact details expressed in the accuweather long-range
.


Opal storm, the Accuweather graphics are solely based on the GFS model graphics at that range, and literally, I have a better chance of winning Powerball before the GFS ever verifying in exact detail 14 days out ...

SF
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#5 Postby yoda » Thu Dec 09, 2004 7:15 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
I would advise you NOT to pay close attention to the exact details expressed in the accuweather long-range
.


Opal storm, the Accuweather graphics are solely based on the GFS model graphics at that range, and literally, I have a better chance of winning Powerball before the GFS ever verifying in exact detail 14 days out ...

SF


DO NOT pay attention to the GFS past 5 days if at all. Only use it w/in 84 hrs... which I usually do when I make my own amateur forecasts here on campus. I only use the GFS for LR...

LOL SF, that is a good one. 8-)
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Dec 09, 2004 7:21 pm

yoda wrote:DO NOT pay attention to the GFS past 5 days if at all. Only use it w/in 84 hrs...


I taught you well, yom kipper ... :lol:

which I usually do when I make my own amateur forecasts here on campus. I only use the GFS for LR...


good for practice, I guess ...

Next step, interpreting the 3 day average of the ECMWF Day 8-10... :D
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#7 Postby yoda » Thu Dec 09, 2004 9:02 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
yoda wrote:DO NOT pay attention to the GFS past 5 days if at all. Only use it w/in 84 hrs...


I taught you well, yom kipper ... :lol:

which I usually do when I make my own amateur forecasts here on campus. I only use the GFS for LR...


good for practice, I guess ...

Next step, interpreting the 3 day average of the ECMWF Day 8-10... :D


LOL!! Yes, I learned from you and some others when and when not to use the GFS model.

I make my own amateur forecasts because my roommate and dormmates on the floor and other people in my dorm ask me for forecasts... so I write them on my board I have on my door.

I can start to interpret the 3 day average of the ECMWF... but I have trouble doing that. Perhaps you can teach me, master?
:eek: :lol: :P
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#8 Postby wxguy25 » Thu Dec 09, 2004 10:34 pm

yoda wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:
yoda wrote:DO NOT pay attention to the GFS past 5 days if at all. Only use it w/in 84 hrs...


I taught you well, yom kipper ... :lol:

which I usually do when I make my own amateur forecasts here on campus. I only use the GFS for LR...


good for practice, I guess ...

Next step, interpreting the 3 day average of the ECMWF Day 8-10... :D


LOL!! Yes, I learned from you and some others when and when not to use the GFS model.

I make my own amateur forecasts because my roommate and dormmates on the floor and other people in my dorm ask me for forecasts... so I write them on my board I have on my door.

I can start to interpret the 3 day average of the ECMWF... but I have trouble doing that. Perhaps you can teach me, master?
:eek: :lol: :P


Then perhaps we can work on Quasigeostrophic theory? :lol:
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#9 Postby TS Zack » Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:06 pm

LOL QV Dynamics.

Have Fun! :P
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#10 Postby yoda » Fri Dec 10, 2004 3:21 am

wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:
yoda wrote:DO NOT pay attention to the GFS past 5 days if at all. Only use it w/in 84 hrs...


I taught you well, yom kipper ... :lol:

which I usually do when I make my own amateur forecasts here on campus. I only use the GFS for LR...


good for practice, I guess ...

Next step, interpreting the 3 day average of the ECMWF Day 8-10... :D


LOL!! Yes, I learned from you and some others when and when not to use the GFS model.

I make my own amateur forecasts because my roommate and dormmates on the floor and other people in my dorm ask me for forecasts... so I write them on my board I have on my door.

I can start to interpret the 3 day average of the ECMWF... but I have trouble doing that. Perhaps you can teach me, master?
:eek: :lol: :P


Then perhaps we can work on Quasigeostrophic theory? :lol:


The WHAT? Come again? Never heard if it.... :)
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#11 Postby TS Zack » Fri Dec 10, 2004 7:43 am

It has to deal with Cold Core Low Pressure Centers.

Very Hard to explain, wxguy may be able to give some sort of description.
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Opal storm

#12 Postby Opal storm » Fri Dec 10, 2004 6:32 pm

Thanks for the responses. :D Thought I might see some snow soon but I guess not.But there's plenty more winter to come. :D
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#13 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 11, 2004 8:49 am

Opal storm wrote:Thanks for the responses. :D Thought I might see some snow soon but I guess not.But there's plenty more winter to come. :D


In Pensacola? :lol:

I would suggest moving north if you want any appreciable snow.
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#14 Postby Scorpion » Sat Dec 11, 2004 9:33 am

I doubt in Pensacola, but it could be possible in isolated rural areas in North Central FL. For what its worth, it has snowed all the way down in Miami before.
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#15 Postby jdray » Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:06 pm

Christmas of 1989 will always hold a special place in my heart.

2+ inches of snow on top of a 1-2 inches of ice. The first recorded White Christmas in Jacksonville's history.

I would love to see at least a few flakes this year. Kinda funny watching offices shutdown temporarily as the staff goes in plays in the flurries.

Im in a spot that is about 5 degrees colder than the local weather stations.
Kinda interested in why AccuWeather has us @ 23F Tuesday Morning, 21F wednesday morning while the local NWS doesn't see it getting that low due to lack of snow cover up north.



How much does snow cover matter?
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#16 Postby Anonymous » Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:34 pm

jdray wrote:Christmas of 1989 will always hold a special place in my heart.

2+ inches of snow on top of a 1-2 inches of ice. The first recorded White Christmas in Jacksonville's history.

I would love to see at least a few flakes this year. Kinda funny watching offices shutdown temporarily as the staff goes in plays in the flurries.

Im in a spot that is about 5 degrees colder than the local weather stations.
Kinda interested in why AccuWeather has us @ 23F Tuesday Morning, 21F wednesday morning while the local NWS doesn't see it getting that low due to lack of snow cover up north.



How much does snow cover matter?


Yeah, I saw that too... Accuweather forecasting us to 21 this week :eek:
NWS is saying nothing below 30 which is actually a skilled forecast... Accuweather local forecast is solely based on the GFS computer model. I think the snow cover up north matters due to the winds being from the north over icy, snowy grounds which tends to be colder than no snowpack.
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#17 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Dec 11, 2004 8:33 pm

jdray wrote:Christmas of 1989 will always hold a special place in my heart.

2+ inches of snow on top of a 1-2 inches of ice. The first recorded White Christmas in Jacksonville's history.

I would love to see at least a few flakes this year. Kinda funny watching offices shutdown temporarily as the staff goes in plays in the flurries.

Im in a spot that is about 5 degrees colder than the local weather stations.
Kinda interested in why AccuWeather has us @ 23F Tuesday Morning, 21F wednesday morning while the local NWS doesn't see it getting that low due to lack of snow cover up north.

How much does snow cover matter?


Snowcover helps by radiating whatever insolation occurs during the day back into space quite readily and with prime conditions, radiational cooling is significantly enhanced during the night. But in the case of January 21st, 1985 ... it didn't matter AT ALL, especially when you severely displace the PV into the Great Lakes, and sent unprecedented cold air FAR SOUTHWARD, including Florida.

The 850mb temperatures of 1/21/1985 at 00z, with the heart of the cold air over WV in that timeframe ...
Image

More information on
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... 985AO.html

list of stations w/all time record cold, some records before 1985 stood for almost 100 years ... including Jacksonville, FL's all time record low of 7º (which still stands today) ...

Code: Select all

WOODBURY, TN:  -28
ALLARDT, TN:  -27
BRISTOL, TN: -21
CARTHAGE, TN: -17
CENTERVILLE, TN: -26
CHATTANOOGA, TN: -10
COLUMBIA, TN: -20
COOKEVILLE: -22
CROSSVILLE AIRPORT, TN: -21
CROSSVILLE EXPERIMENTAL STATION, TN: -25
DICKSON, TN: -23
FRANKLIN, TN: -21
KNOXVILLE, TN: -24
LEBANON, TN: -20,
LEWISBURG, TN: -20
LIVINGSTON, TN: -25
MONTEAGLE, TN: -20
MOUNT PLEASANT, TN: -17
NASHVILLE, TN: -17
NEAPOLIS, TN: -23
SHELBYVILLE, TN: -20,
SMITHVILLE, TN: -24
TULLAHOMA, TN: -20
MOBILE, AL: 3
BIRMINGHAM, AL: -6
PENSACOLA, FL: 5
JACKSONVILLE, FL: 7
MONTGOMERY, AL: 0
JACKSON, MS: 2
ATLANTA, GA: -8
COLUMBUS, GA: -2
ATHENS, GA: -4
AUGUSTA, GA: -1
SAVANNAH, GA: 3
COLUMBIA, SC: -1
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG, SC: -4
FLORENCE, SC: 0
ASHEVILLE, NC: -16
CAPE HATTERAS, NC: 6
RALEIGH-DURHAM, NC: -9
TRIAD INT'L AIRPORT, NC: -8


1989 will always be remembered for extreme weather events in South Carolina as well, particularly the Charleston area ... first, with an all-time record high in February (87º), followed by a 4" snowfall a week later ... then very severe thunderstorms which dropped a significant amount of hail during the summertime (June) ... Then, of course, Hugo in September, and then the astonishly cold December, with several ZR/IP events, before the Christmas snowstorm.

SF
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#18 Postby Anonymous » Sat Dec 11, 2004 10:31 pm

wxguy25 wrote:Then perhaps we can work on Quasigeostrophic theory?


Alright wxguy25, Step up to the Plate.

I'd like a detailed description of quasigeostrophic theory, stat. Please?

You asked yoda if he wanted to work on quasigeostrophic theory. Well, I do!!!

BRING IT!!!! BRING IT!!!!


-Jeb
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#19 Postby yoda » Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:22 pm

Jeb wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:Then perhaps we can work on Quasigeostrophic theory?


Alright wxguy25, Step up to the Plate.

I'd like a detailed description of quasigeostrophic theory, stat. Please?

You asked yoda if he wanted to work on quasigeostrophic theory. Well, I do!!!

BRING IT!!!! BRING IT!!!!


-Jeb


Sure. I do as well. I have been looking it up... and it is most interesting. :D :D
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