Snow chances for SE TX (forecast)

[jeff]

Have your cameras ready, its has never snowed in Houston on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, but this year it will be dang close.

Extended period of freezing temps (36 hours below freezing) and winter precip. heading for SE TX

Travel conditions will be going downhill starting Thursday night and into Christmas Eve.

Will go with P-type of all frozen in the forecast as the models confirm this with very cold soundings. Amounts will vary over the region from a dusting to maybe 2.0 inches around Matagorda Bay.

Warm ground may result in melting upon contact limiting significant accumulations. Bridges and overpasses will have problems with glazing as temps. will not get above freezing from Thursday night through Christmas Day.

Setup:

Strong 500mb short wave within the polar jet will approach TX late Thursday. Impressive isentropic lifting will begin around midday and spread north and northeast from the middle TX coast. Secondary surge of very cold arctic air will enter TX midday Thursday and spread across the state. Temps. will once again fall during the afternoon to below freezing. Moisture increases as dynamical lifting increase ahead of the upper level energy. 150kt jet right over and just north of the area will help increase the moisture profile. Deepest moisture is along and south of I-10 and that is where the best precip. chances will be.

Precip. should start by late Thursday night as a rain/snow/sleet mix and change to all snow by early Friday as deeper arctic air moves southward. Critical thickness and 850mb 0C lines confirm a frozen profile with a winter mix even over the open Gulf.

Accumulations:

Meso-scale bands and enhanced lifting could result in snow and sleet burst more typical of the lake effect snow gun regions. Locations under such burst cold easily received 1-2 inches in an hour or so. Ground temps. remain in the 60's and should fall into the 30's by Friday morning. Much of what falls will melt on contact with concrete surfaces. Rooftops and grassy areas should see a dusting to 1.0 inch of accumulation. Jackson, Matagorda, and Wharton counties may see accumulations of 1.5 -2.0 inches. Bridges and overpasses will become ice covered and frozen by Friday morning, with travel extremely hazardous over the region. Expect major airport delays and flight cancellations as both airports will enact rigorous de-icing procedures.

Winds will remain strong through the period with wind chills falling into the lower teens and single digits Thursday night through Christmas Day.

Forecast (moderate confidence):

Tonight: some clearing and cold with lows near freezing. North winds 15-25mph and gusty.

Thursday: partly cloudy early with increasing clouds late. Highs near 40. North winds 15-25mph and gusty. Wind chills in the lower 20's.

Thursday night: cloudy with a winter mix developing after midnight. A 40% chance of snow and sleet. Cold with lows in the mid to upper 20's. Winds N 15-25mph and gusty increasing to near 30-40mph along the coast. Wind chills lower teens. Accumulations of .5 to 1.0 inch on grassy surfaces and rooftops.

Chirstmas Eve: Cloudy and very cold with snow and sleet through early afternoon. Chance of precip. 50%. Highs near 30. N winds 20-30mph and gusty. Accumulations of 1.0 in on grassy surfaces south of I-10.

Christmas Eve night:cloudy and very cold with flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper teens and lower 20's. North winds 5-10mph. Winds chills below 10.

Christmas Day: cloudy early with decreasing clouds late. Cold with highs in the upper 30's.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Jeff,

You think we will see the same setup Corpus way?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Jeff, I live over in LA just south of Baton Rouge. What track do you think this storm will take? Can we expect the same conditions over here as you guys or maybe more? What are your opinions of this being a little stronger than forecast and providing more of this winter wonder than current thinking? Any help would be great. Thanks.

[jeff]

Jeff,

You think we will see the same setup Corpus way?

You will have a little less moisture to work with, but the chances are still there. 50-60% for frozen stuff from Victoria to CC. Ground temps will be much warmer, so accumulations will be less.

I am actually a little more interested for Firday night as the upper low moves across. Could see some bands develop around the cold core center

[jeff]

Jeff, I live over in LA just south of Baton Rouge. What track do you think this storm will take? Can we expect the same conditions over here as you guys or maybe more? What are your opinions of this being a little stronger than forecast and providing more of this winter wonder than current thinking? Any help would be great. Thanks.

You will probably see some sleet and snow mix late Friday and into Christmas Day. If some of the model solutions verify with the low pressure intensity you could get nailed pretty good.

I fully agree wxguy with his snowfall amounts, but would like to bring the B line just a tad more north over TX and LA.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

How about further east in south LA. I just read a post about one of the latest models close to predicting a major snow event for the north gulf coast

[PTrackerLA]

Jeff what about us in south central Louisiana (Lafayette). The ground temps will have a little more time to cool off around here...if the moisture comes in right would 3" on the ground Christmas morning be out of the question?

[Johnny]

Bring that line up to Conroe if you would Jeff. I'm just a tad bit north.

[southerngale]

Thanks Jeff! I'm going to assume, unless you say otherwise, that Beaumont falls into your discussion regarding Southeast Texas and your Houston area forecast.

Btw, I've got my 35mm ready, with tons of extra film, my digital camera ready, and my camcorder ready with plenty of blank tapes! Now I just need the snow!

[PTrackerLA]

Thanks Jeff! I'm going to assume, unless you say otherwise, that Beaumont falls into your discussion regarding Southeast Texas and your Houston area forecast.

Btw, I've got my 35mm ready, with tons of extra film, my digital camera ready, and my camcorder ready with plenty of blank tapes! Now I just need the snow!

Hah you sound like me. I'll have my digi cam on me at all times starting tomorrow night. Whatever falls I'll be sure to post photos of it quick (because it might not last long )

[jeff]

My forecast certainly includes extreme SE TX and for all purposes much of S LA. Accumulations may be a little higher over southern LA depending on temps. and ground temps.

Areas along and S of I-10 should see the greatest amounts. A far as a major snowstorm as suggested by other mets, some of the guidance is showing that. However, I will not latch on just yet as I think the low may be more off the coast.

We should know much more tomorrow.

[Yankeegirl]

I am 7 miles northwest of I-10.. Do ya think we will see anything here? I live in the Cy Fair/Katy area... Please keep all fingers crossed for us!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks for all your responses Jeff. I will definitely look forward to what you and the models will show tomorrow. Thanks again.

[jeff]

I am 7 miles northwest of I-10.. Do ya think we will see anything here? I live in the Cy Fair/Katy area... Please keep all fingers crossed for us!

I am south of Spring and just west of KIAH. If the event happens I better get something. I think we have a decent shot as well as areas around Conroe. North of a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Willis is probably the cut off line.

But we shall see.