2029 Asteroid Impact chance, alert level raised.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

http://space.com/scienceastronomy/aster ... 41224.html

[yoda]

Saw that report yestertday... looked to be very interesting... I am preparing for it now...

[kevin]

Glad there is still a 98% chance that further calculations will eliminate the risk. Was shocked to see it go from level 2 to level 4. If this does come to us on future examinations I think we should definetely keep Bush in the white house. A liberal might try and negotiate with the rock, or send a solar wind net thingamabobber to it.

Bush would no doubt nuke it with 7,000 nuclear missiles.



Putin could send his stocks up too.

Take that asteroid!

[coriolis]

I say we start shootin at it now to get lots of practice.

[Aslkahuna]

We haven't the capability to shoot at it right now.

Steve

[streetsoldier]

Well, I'll be six feet under by that time...no cause for me to worry.

[Brent]

I'll mark my calendar.

[Brent]

Well, I'll be six feet under by that time...no cause for me to worry.

Way to be optimistic eh?

[streetsoldier]

Well, Brent; if I "make it" that far into the future, I'll be just short of 77, which is about my life expectancy IF I were in peak health...which I ain't.

What, me worry?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

CNN said that the astronomers were reporting that if it did strike, it would hit on Friday, April 13, 2029.

Likely it would only be big enough to destroy a metropolitan area (Atlanta, Houston) if it hit in the direct middle of it. It likely isn't big enough to cause global devastation.

[Windy]

CNN said that the astronomers were reporting that if it did strike, it would hit on Friday, April 13, 2029.

Likely it would only be big enough to destroy a metropolitan area (Atlanta, Houston) if it hit in the direct middle of it. It likely isn't big enough to cause global devastation.

The strike probability has now been upgraded to 1 in 45.

Explosive force upon unlikely event of a strike is estimated at 1.6 gigatons (1,600 megatons, or roughly 53,000 times as powerful as Hiroshima). If the asteroid turned out to be larger or more dense, this figure could go up (size/mass estimates of asteroids are only accurate to within a factor of 2 and a factor of 3, respectively). The crater would be roughly 3.6 miles wide and 1600 feet deep.

If you were 25 miles from the impact site of this asteroid, you would experience the following:

8 seconds after impact, an earthquake strong enough to cause partial collapse of well constructed structures.

1 minute, 30 seconds after impact, ejecta (some molten) would begin raining down from the sky. Mean size of falling rock material would be 16 inches in diameter.

2 minutes after impact, peak overpressure of 9.43 psi would occur, along with 280 mph winds and a roar of around 96db.

That's 25 MILES from impact point. Obviously, it wouldn't have to land in the middle of a city to do some damage.

Actually worst case (and most likely, in unlikely case of impact) scenario is that this lands in the ocean. The resulting tsunami would be several hundred feet high or more at the coastlines (at ALL coastlines bordering the ocean), and the projected worldwide deaths is ~35 million, I believe.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I have not seen the upgraded probability elsewhere....where did you find it?

Also, I doubt an asteroid of that size would kill 35 million people....first, we have advance warning to attempt to destroy/make it go in a different direction AND make people evacuate possible areas affected (coastlines, inland).

[Aslkahuna]

Depends upon the density of the object. A nickel iron impactor of this size would be a ground impact whereas a stony one could possibly airburst which would be the same as a 1.6GT nuke airburst without the radiation.

Steve

[Windy]

I have not seen the upgraded probability elsewhere....where did you find it?

Also, I doubt an asteroid of that size would kill 35 million people....first, we have advance warning to attempt to destroy/make it go in a different direction AND make people evacuate possible areas affected (coastlines, inland).

Heya, Doc! You can get the current probs at:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

2.2e-02 = 1 in 45

As for evacuating the coasts... how would you go about doing that? You get plenty of warning that an asteroid is coming, but there is no way to know where on the planet it will hit until a couple of days before it's here, and even then you're only going to get a broad geographic region, like "somewhere in Asia" or "in the western hemisphere north of the equator and south of the Arctic Circle". If it hits land, there is no need to evac the coasts. If it hits water, there is -- and the need to evacuate is probably beyond the ability of the human race to coordinate. If one landed in the middle of the Atlantic, for example, there would be a need to evacuate all of the eastern seaboard in North and South America, and all of the western seaboard in Africa and Europe. That's a lot of people trying to move at once on short notice, and that doesn't say anything for the islanders out there, who can't move at all. You've got a wave crashing ashore that is, depending on topology, 200 to 2000+ feet high. I mean, other than climb the nearest mountain, what could a citizen of Hawaii or Japan do if a 2000 foot wave was headed his way? Makes riding out a Cat 5 hurricane look like fun!

[Windy]

Depends upon the density of the object. A nickel iron impactor of this size would be a ground impact whereas a stony one could possibly airburst which would be the same as a 1.6GT nuke airburst without the radiation.

Steve

I think just about any asteroid will break up in the atmosphere coming in at that speed, but the fragments still strike the ground with enough force to carve out that huge crater. For the previous post I was assuming a dense rock. A nickel-iron meteorite would be a lot worse. A not so dense rock would be better, but still enough to carve out a couple mile crater and knock stuff down for a good 50 miles.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Thanks for the link...I'm just surprised that it hasn't made the news yet....1 in 45 for an asteroid is a huge probability.

Also, your assumption is inaccurate. We have the techonology available and will get plenty of time to determine where it would strike (such as gravitational impacts on nearby objects like Mars, its travel speed, and calculuating the position of earth on April 13, 2029.) All you need is a data collector.

[AussieMark]

Do u think the movie deep impact has any truth in it

[Hurricanehink]

It'll burn up in our atmosphere and what's ever left will be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.

[MGC]

So does this mean we don't have to worry about global warming?....MGC

[CaptinCrunch]

well if it does hit I'm hopping for a Middle East target!