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Winter Weather Discussion

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R-Dub
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#141 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:18 am

Though looking at the traffic cams for down in by the boarder of wa/or looks like rain or freezing rain falling.
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#142 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:33 am

Auctually accuweathers radar might be better for this event...

http://radar.accuweather.com/adcbin/pub ... &type=loop
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#143 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:41 am

This info is from another site, but it does tell me its freezing rain down there in the Portland area.

As of 0720 Saturday, January 15th Camas, Washington is getting freezing rain, most of the Portland Metropoltin area is gettin freezing rain and there have been accidents.
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#144 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:43 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
817 AM PST SAT JAN 15 2005

WAZ004-008-011-152300-
CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-
817 AM PST SAT JAN 15 2005

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...THE CENTRAL CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...AND THE TACOMA AREA IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
AS INDICATED BY WEATHER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE GREATER PORTLAND-VANCOUVER AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING FROM TACOMA SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

ANY ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS CAN MAKE
SURFACES SLIPPERY AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS ICY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRAVEL OR DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES.
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#145 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:55 am

Temp up to 24.0 degrees, but looks like cloud cover is lowering, so hopefully that will trap the cold! Dewpoint 20.8 degrees
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#146 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 12:05 pm

All roads including I-5 in the Portland area now chains required!!! Getting very icy down there.
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#147 Postby TT-SEA » Sat Jan 15, 2005 12:09 pm

We are heading out to go skiing this morning... before the Pineapple Express destroys the snow.

Looks like freezing rain and not snow though... and then just rain.
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#148 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:01 pm

Looks like a freezing rain event for most all of western wa! Currently 26.8 degrees here with dewpoint 20.1 degrees.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 930 AM PST SAT JAN 15 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE END OF THE SPELL OF COLD WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN WITH US FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET AND MILD...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DIRECTING A SERIES OF PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. &&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH NEAR 43N/131W PLOWING NE AS EXPECTED. MAIN WARM FRONT IS STILL PRETTY FAR TO THE SW OF THE AREA WITH THE BACK EDGE RUNNING THROUGH 44.3N/130W. GFS/ETA FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE WARM FRONT UP TO THE PUGET SOUND REGION AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE PROBLEMS OCCURRING AS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. 9 AM SPOTTER REPORT FROM CENTRALIA HAS VERY LIGHT SLEET. RADAR SHOWS LOTS OF PRECIP OVER NW OREGON HEADED N INTO SW WA. MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM KSEA WERE VERY MUCH LIKE THE 06Z ETA BUFFER SOUNDINGS. WARMEST ONE SHOWED AN ABOVE FREEZING PROFILE (MAX 3C) FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 6500 FEET. MAJORITY OF PROFILES SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL SUB-FREEZING AIR (DOWN TO -2.5C) ANYWHERE FROM 1800 TO 3000 FEET DEEP...WITH A WARM LAYER OF +1 TO +2C AIR FROM THERE UP TO 6000-6500 FEET. DEW POINTS SHOW THE SURFACE AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY. THE LOW LEVEL SUB-FREEZING AIR MASS SEEMS JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME RARE SLEET OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW DOESN`T LOOK VERY LIKELY GIVEN THE DEPTH OF WARM AIR ALOFT. THE ONLY THING THAT WILL PUNCH THE AIR ALOFT BACK BELOW FREEZING IS HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIP TO CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY SINCE THE INITIAL RAIN BANDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT USUALLY ONLY CONTAIN LIGHT PRECIP AND THE ACTUAL WARM FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. MEANWHILE SLOW WARMING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...AS WELL AS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION FROM THE S INTO THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE INTERIOR IS ALREADY WELL COVERED WITH ADVISORIES MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE REFRESHING THE ADVISORIES TO REDUCE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AIR MASS OVER WHATCOM COUNTY...TEMP 21F AND DP 2F...IS MUCH COLDER THAN JUST TO THE SOUTH SO THIS AREA SHOULD END UP WITH SOME SNOW. ACARS SOUNDING INTO VANCOUVER CANADA SHOWED A COMPLETELY SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING...BUT CLOSE TO MIMICKING PUGET SOUND PROFILES WITH AN ABOVE FREEZING MID-LAYER. THUS FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. MODEL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE BELOW 0.30 INCH SO HEAVY SNOW ISN`T EXPECTED. LATEST 12Z GFS/ETA STILL SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT GOING COMPLETELY DRY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY. GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORMALLY SLOWER ETA WAITS UNTIL AROUND 12Z MONDAY. KAM &&
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#149 Postby W13 » Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:14 pm

32 F with a Dew Point of 7 F (as low as I have seen it get here this winter), as of 10:14 AM
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#150 Postby andrewr » Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:25 pm

36.5F here with a dewpoint of 4F. The humidity is also really low at 26%.
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#151 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:55 pm

1/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
10:53:48 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 28.0
Humidity (%) 65.7
Wind (mph) ESE 3.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.39
Dew Point: 18.8 ºF
Last edited by R-Dub on Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#152 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:55 pm

1/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
10:53:48 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 28.0
Humidity (%) 65.7
Wind (mph) ESE 3.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.39
Dew Point: 18.8 ºF
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#153 Postby AnthonyC » Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:05 pm

Precip better hurry up. It's currently 32 F in Everett, but my outdoor thermometer reads 28 F. Dewpoint is still low...12 F which is good. As long as the temp can stay 35 F or below and a really low dewpoint, we should start as a wintery mix of some sort. But the later it takes this precip to travel north, the less chance we have of snow/freezing rain.
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#154 Postby andrewr » Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:10 pm

37F here with a DP of 4F. The humidity also remains low at 26%.
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#155 Postby W13 » Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:29 pm

AnthonyC wrote:Precip better hurry up. It's currently 32 F in Everett, but my outdoor thermometer reads 28 F. Dewpoint is still low...12 F which is good. As long as the temp can stay 35 F or below and a really low dewpoint, we should start as a wintery mix of some sort. But the later it takes this precip to travel north, the less chance we have of snow/freezing rain.


Precip is nearly to where I live, probably another hour or so before I start seeing it fall. Holding steady at 33 F with a Dew Point of 8 F. 8-)
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#156 Postby W13 » Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:39 pm

Just walked out onto my back deck, and the outdoor thermometer is reading 31 F. We also have a stiff East Wind at around 5-10 mph. Dew Point is still steady at 8 F.
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#157 Postby W13 » Sat Jan 15, 2005 3:09 pm

Still holding steady at 33 F, with a Dew Point of 8 F, as of 12:09 PM

Precip should be falling within the next hour! :)
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#158 Postby andrewr » Sat Jan 15, 2005 3:29 pm

Currently getting sleet, which isn't as good as snow but better than freezing rain.
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#159 Postby AnthonyC » Sat Jan 15, 2005 3:36 pm

Outdoor thermometer reads 29 F, dewpoint 12 F. Precip is knocking at my door. It will probably be in the form of freezing rain/mix...warm air has already spread aloft, eliminating any chance of snow. A quick changeover to rain is a good bet.
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#160 Postby R-Dub » Sat Jan 15, 2005 3:37 pm

1/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
12:35:47 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 32.0
Humidity (%) 60.0
Wind (mph) ESE 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.36
Dew Point: 20.4 ºF
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