18z gfs really screwing things up!

[krysof]

They show very little moisture for the mid-atlantic areas. Complete difference between the eta and gfs.

[Stormsfury]

The only thing that I like WRT to the 18z GFS is the fact that some CAD (AG signature) is starting to show up. BUT AGAIN, the damn models scour the wedge out way too fast ... ALL OF THEM...

surprises are in store ... even though at this current time, TD's have risen across the boards from the single digits to the 20's ...

There's a variation of the 50/50 low showing up on the models and several Carolina events I've seen had one common theme ... an Icelandic Block...

SF

[DLI2k5]

I just head a local met talking about the wedge situation taking shape, but said the moisture will have exited too quickly for it too have any impact. Nothing more than flurries and that's if we are lucky!

[krysof]

I had a feeling about this, but it's not set in stone by all means.

[sphinx]

Speaking of CAD, the experimental extended WRF run at 50 km resolution (isn't that coarser than the ETA) showed nice damming with this weekend's event. As most of you probably know, output from this model is available at the Detroit weather service site.

The ETA often shows more QPF than the GFS. Speaking of biases, I sometimes wonder how much bias in QPF is introduced by initialization time (00, 06, 12, or 18 UT). Does anyone know?

[krysof]

The 0z gfs has changed significantly, it goes with the eta model. At least heavy moisture for several hours.

[W13]

Remember these key facts when looking at the ETA and GFS Models:

ETA - Wet Bias
GFS - Dry Bias

So basically, expect a bit more than what the GFS is displaying and expect a bit less with the ETA.