Pacific Northwest Weather

[Brian_from_bellingham]

And a shortage of water means a big fire danger. Also it means higher water bills, maybe mandatory conservation of water, etc. Not good news.

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... I noticed that grass everywhere is looking much greener. Along the freeways and in neighborhoods.

The high temperature at my house today (according to my wife) was 65.4 degrees... with lots of sunshine. How nice. She said that she is loving it.

So... the 18Z run of the GFS has erased any hope that it was trending colder. It shows an endless, fairly warm, zonal flow for the next two weeks. I am afraid that even the mountains may be screwed in this pattern.

I agree with Anthony... forget the lowlands. We might get a quick snowstorm in March but I do not see it happening in February

[TT-SEA]

Are we still facing water shortages if we have a warm, wet spring and early summer without mountain snow??

[W13]

Are we still facing water shortages if we have a warm, wet spring and early summer without mountain snow??

I think we would still be facing major water shortages, especially since our local resoviours depend on the mountain snowpack melting throughout the summer to maintain a good amount of water in them. Without the snowpack melting during the summer, even if we got some good rains in spring and early summer, it wouldn't be enough for the entire summer.

[TT-SEA]

Is there a web site to check reservoir levels?

[W13]

Is there a web site to check reservoir levels?

I searched on Google, but I really couldn't find anything.

[R-Dub]

R-Dub... I noticed that grass everywhere is looking much greener. Along the freeways and in neighborhoods.

Yeah I when I left my golf course on Friday, the course still had that dormant look to it, this morning it looked totally different, lush green (I know it looks great, but I don't want that look until I have the staff to manage it )! Doesn't take long to get the soil temps up with this kind of weather. Usually I see this transformation in mid March, not January! While I am on the grass subject, if you want the perfect lawn in the winter, never walk on frosty or frozen grass, or let animals on it. Every step you take on frost covered grass kills it instantly, your green grass will turn black within a half hr of stepping on it, and then it turns brown after a day, and stays that way until spring, or in this case, the end of Jan

I could care less about my lawn at home here, my dogs trashed it during the cold spell anyway, already starting to heal up though.

[snow_wizzard]

To say the least the 12z and 18z are looking shi**y at best. There is not even a hint of a deep trough developing over us. The only thing that is good news at all is there appears to be a decent chance it will get cold in Alaska and there might be a couple of cold fronts that could bring some snow to the mountains. The national guys said the El Nino has not been the cause of this. Some of the hallmark El Nino signatures are not there. According to them other factors are at work here. If this stuff was El Nino caused I would throw in the towel now. It appears that the MJO is the driving force this winter. When it goes negative again in early Feb, we should see cold weather within a week or so of that. If it doesn't we are probably finished for this winter.

It is astonishing that we have yet to have a month average below 40 degrees this entire decade. How is that possible? We have had La Nina winters and negative PNA averages, all for nothing. There is some missing peice of the puzzle and I am going to figure that bastard out if it kills me! This is really beginning to get frustratating. This could be yet another loser winter. I am growing to hate this climate!

[snow_wizzard]

I wouldn't worry about the water situation just yet. If the rest of this winter is pathetic and we have a warm, spring, I would guess we will have one of our awful cold and wet summers. Those suck just as bad as a warm winter.

[AnthonyC]

And that's another thing...a warm, dry winter usually leads to a wet, cool summer...which really sucks!!! I want this kind of weather in late spring/early summer...not the middle of winter!!! There was one year...I can't remember which one...one in the middle 90s...that brought a warm/much drier fall winter...but lead to a wet, cool late spring/summer...someone refresh my memory. I think it was spring/summer of 97...but not fully sure. There's just no hope for winter...it's over. If models aren't hinting at anything by now, there's nothing coming. Sorry. Oh well. I may not be in the state next year. But I guess Oregon isn't much better...or maybe worse?! lol.

Anthony

Beautiful skies with temperatures in the lower 50s.

[R-Dub]

Yeah the weather hasn't been too exciting around here lately, but I would still never want to live any other place! I was offered a job in Texas recently, but I didn't even half to think about it! I just couldn't imagine moving there after living in paradise all my life!! No offense to the Texans though They probably wouldn't like it up here either. I am considering moving north, maybe up near the boarder someday, where I would get the maximum from the Fraiser river outflow! Also getting a little too populated here in northern Snohomish co for my liking!!

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Anthony, are you going to Oregon State next year? What is the weather there like in the winter?

I have read a lot that George Taylor has written, pretty interesting stuff.

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...The outflow areas like the Fraser, Skykomish, Snoqualmie, and Green River valleys are the best hope for people like us. It just kills me...there is so much I like about it here, but the winters have gotten to be pure torture. I just don't know how much longer I can take it.

On any of the river valleys, the further you can live up them, the colder and snowier you will be. The Skykomish valley is excellent because it goes so deep back into the mountains, before you get out of civilization. Like you, I have alway though about the Fraser outflow area. There are times their weather can be as severe as North Dakota (from Lynden up).

As for the crappy summer in the 90s, it was 95. August was VERY cool and wet. Another good example is 1983...very pathetic winter, very cool and wet July. The good news is that combination normally leads to cold winters.

[andycottle]

Hey folks. Just took a look at todays GFS...and well looks like the cooling trend may not be happening anytime soon in the long run. However....looks a STRONG high developes over Western U.S and PNW 6th - 9th acording to 12 model, but the 06 and 18z are weaker with the high over PNW and try to send a few showers during that 6th - 9th time frame. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

I am sooo happy that the sun is down, and the temperature is plunging under clear skies! Perhaps some areas will actually see some frost tonight. Perhaps we can even get some of that cold pea soup fog that TT loves so much

At any rate, weak offhsore flow and clear skies spells strong inversion. Maybe we will actually see some near normal temps tomorrow. As I have said before, I don't care how it gets cold as long as it does.

[R-Dub]

Well its offical! Our weather is really messed up right now. Number one, I step out onto the deck facing the lake about 10 min ago, and it feels and smells like late spring, temp still 49 degrees under mostly clear skys. Number two, FROGS!! YES FROGS are croaking like crazy. I have lived on this lake for 28 yrs or all my life and I have NEVER heard the frogs active and croaking in JANUARY!!! The earliest I have ever heard them would be April!!!!!! WHAT IS GOING ON???????

I have been giving it a lot of thought today, and I think TT and others are right about this winter being done, our weather is just way messed up right now, and I don't see it changing this yr, possibly EVER!!!! This may just become the norm for this area I concede! I was wrong, I admit it.

1/24/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:53:41 PM CURRENT
Mostly Clear
Temperature (ºF) 50.2
Humidity (%) 93.1
Wind (mph) E 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.04
Dew Point: 47.3 ºF

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...I feel your pain, but there are two sides to the weather being messed up. It could just turn cold without warning as easy as not. Any time it's this screwed up the rule book goes out the window. We will see.

[AnthonyC]

Altough the weather forecast isn't looking great, I just found out I made PLU and Willamette University today!!! I'm pretty excited about that!!

Brian_from_Bellingham...

Oregon State University is in Corvallis, OR. Kind of in the middle of nowhere. But I could be wrong...I applied there but it's definitely not my top school.

R-Dub...

Hold on to those tapes!!! lol.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Congrats Anthony!!! The tapes will be waiting for you when ever you are able to get them!!

Justin must be fully ingrosed in the tapes now, haven't seen him on here for a while now!

[W13]

Congrats Anthony!!! The tapes will be waiting for you when ever you are able to get them!!

Justin must be fully ingrosed in the tapes now, haven't seen him on here for a while now!

Well, I have just finished watching Tape #1, and I have to say the weather back then was truly a 180 from todays weather. Seattle actually had lows in the teens and highs only reaching the mid 20s during the cold spell of '96. It was impressive seeing that the wind chills in Lynden reached 15-30 degrees below!

I'm going to watch half of Tape #2 tommorow.

By the way Randy, your money goes in the mail tommorow. Should be at your house by the Thursday/Friday timeframe.