Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Tim. I know you will mostly likely say otherwise, BUT, I still say we will have more rounds of cold weather, SNOW, very cold temps before winter is over. I for one, will not concede yet. So while my hopes will not go down, Im sticking with my thoughts!! -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Yeah they had several reporters up your way Brennan, expecally with the frasier winds howling. Good stuff.

[AnthonyC]

Man, 24 is an awesome show!!! Keeps you at the edge of your seat. And those tapes sound awesome...can't wait to watch them!!! If I can't have a white scenery, I may as well watch it on tv. lol. Another record-breaker tomorrow...high temperatures in the low 60s. Is it really January? I feel like it's March...yet the calendar assures me it's January. No real end in site. Where's the zonal flow we so desperately need?! Goodnite to all!!

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

O.K... the Earth is in a period of warming. No dispute. This is a fact. I tend to think its a natural cycle that will probably last another 100 years or so. But its definitely warming and I don't care if its natural or man-made. The result is the same. And it has to have an effect on the climate of Western Washington.

I hate when people point to a recent snowstorm and laugh at global warming. That is very short-sighted. Global warming will bring more snow in some places. Not likely in the Western Washington lowlands though where we have basically a marine climate and we are always on the edge of winter anyways.

Brennan... you seem ready to jump on anyone that might disagree with your "snow all winter long" theory. The reality is very different than your hopes for constant arctic blasts. People have various opinions and the 65-degree warmth outside of my window right now is in direct opposition to most of your forecasts of imminent pattern changes and crippling snowstorms around every corner.

R-Dub... watching those tapes is incredible. If you watch them long enough you begin to think that is what is happening right now. Its a little surreal.

[andycottle]

Yes Tim...we ALL know global warming is happening. Been doing for a long time now. BUT here this. Exrta! Extra! Global warming warming will not stop us from getting snow here in the Western Wa lowlands. Maybe in the real looooong term, BUT CERTAINLY not the short term.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Weather pics

Hey Guys! Here`s really neat photos I took today that shows the sunrise, a lenticular cloud over Rainier, and a preaty moon rise. Enjoy!
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004/album?.dir=/cec0

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I am not saying that it will prevent all snow in Western Weashington.

I am saying that it will make it more difficult to get real snow... and those storms will be fewer and farther between.

[snow_wizzard]

OK...I have had time regroup after a rather long weather rampage today. The 0z does look much better once again. I always like seeing the 0z being the best run of the day, because it is arguably the most accurate. The very good news in this run is that it shows Alaska getting very cold for much of the period. By the latter part of the run it shows a wonderfully deep trough beginning to carve out over the extreme eastern Pacific and the Pacific NW. IF this is reality, we could still be in business. The storm shown at day 15 would be a huge snow maker for the mountains! I am still optimistic about our chances for some cold and snowy weather in February, but it is tinged with some caution. I will say, if it does get cold, it will probably do it right!

It is down to 40 in Covington, and it feels awsome! That nice crisp chill puts the spring back in my step! If we can get some fog tonight, tomorrow may be far cooler than expected. That is hard to predict and we will just have to wait and see.

As for the global warming. I have said it before and I will say it again...it could, and probably will reverse on very short notice. The late 1930s and early 1940s was tremendously warm in this area, and you all know what came next. A string of very cold and snowy winters!

[snow_wizzard]

On the subject of March and snow. People forget about March 1951. That March was to tell people it can snow a lot and stay for a long time during that month! Sea-Tac had a total of 18 inches and it was on the ground for 9 straight days. The amazing thing is that all of western Washington had heavy snow that month. In fact it was the snowiest month on record for Clearbrook (Whatcom County) and Forks. Forks had a whopping 38.5 inches and a maximum depth of 21 inches...Bellingham also had a max depth of 21. Not bad for March!

These are the kinds of goodies that make it so hard for me to except the pathetic winters of the past several years. I know it can do better.

[andycottle]

Current weather here 12:14am is mostly clear, but with partly cloudy skies at times...mainly some batches mid-level clouds...alto cumulus, passing through. In fact, just had few of thoes clouds pass through a few minutes ago. Temp is....are ya ready? 42 degrees!! humidity 100% and baro 29.80 and steady. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z run of the GFS shows absolutely nothing at all. Weak zonal flow with high 500mb heights through Day 15.

That is not good news for the mountains.

Wizzard... I am sure you are happy with the soupy, ugly mess this morning.

I see we have higher pollutant levels this morning and moderate air quality. Thats real nice. Love that inversion.

I just don't get it... who likes breathing pollution??

By the way... there is no fog here in North Bend. The day is dawning crystal clear away from the inversion around the Puget Sound.

Also checked air quality and it is extremely good here but bad around Seattle in the fog.

[R-Dub]

Well I have no idea what this means, but for the first time this winter, the PNA forecast ensembles are very much divided. Not quite half showing fairly deep neg, while the others are showing fairly high positive, with one or two showing nutural. Just wierd to see it all over the place, when typically ensembles all would be close to one another.

1/25/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:48:07 AM CURRENT
Unknown/I havent been outside yet
Temperature (ºF) 40.3
Humidity (%) 100.0
Wind (mph) ESE 0.4
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.00
Dew Point: 40.3 ºF

[W13]

Currently 34 F as of 7:20 am

[snow_wizzard]

34 with light frost in Covington.

TT...I just like the feel of walking outside into nice cold air. It is invigorating. Sometimes inversions can actually get cold enough to produce all day frosts and it can actually be quite wintry. I also like cold without snow, because it can produce frozen ponds and even lakes. Ice of any kind is good in my book. That is what winter is all about.

By the way...the 6z run does show very cold air developing in Alaska. It also shows several snow opportunities in the mountains. It is looking better!

[W13]

Still 34 F with dense fog, as of 8:02 AM

55-60 F today? I don't think so.

[W13]

36 F as of 9:42 AM

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Interesting discussion about the El Nino at the CPC sight. They seem to be in agreement with SnowWizzard.

"RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CALIFORNIA IN EARLY JANUARY IS THE RESULT OF UNUSUAL CIRCULATION PATTERNS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE NOT TYPICAL OF EL NINOS. EARLY JANUARY PRECIPITATION PATTERNS OBSERVED IN FLORIDA AND THE OHIO VALLEY ARE OPPOSITE OF THE USUAL EL NINO SIGNALS... FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY ARE DUE TO UNUSUAL CIRCULATION PATTERNS UNRELATED TO EL NINO"

and "WHILE THESE SST ANOMALIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY THIS AS A WEAK EL NINO EVENT... THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE SSTS SO FAR THIS SEASON"

[andycottle]

Hey folks. Did have some fog earlier, but now at 10:30am, we have partly cloudy skies with a temp of 44 and humidity 100% and baro 29.77 and steady. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi Again folks!
Looking this mornings GFS runs....looks like our dry weather should at least stick around through Wednesday. Then 27th - 31st will be featuring showers, with nothing all to heavy, but also some small breaks inbetween systems. MOS for Seattle has temps generally in the low 50`s with a few upper high 40`s for daytime highs.
-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Well everyone gets what they wanted today.

It is 62.2 degrees at my house already with sunshine... at 10:45 a.m.!!!

It is 39 degrees at Sea-Tac with fog.

WOW.

Just looked at the 12Z run of the GFS and I am not seeing anything interesting. Actually going to be pretty dry around here for the next two weeks (although the precipitation will be close in BC).

No cold air and very little mountain snow on the latest run.