I'm just a little curious..........

[NCGal]

Does the storm system that is supposed to effect the Eastern Seaboard this weekend with a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain have the potiental to become a bigger system than expected and deliver more than forecasters are saying accumulation wise? The weather this morning and the weather this afternoon have already changed within hours and this morning they talked like it really wasn't a big deal and now they say that it may become a major issue. Thanks in advance for your help.

[jimvb]

What I saw was that the 20050126 18Z run of GFS called for the 0-degree line on the 6-hour precip map to go well north of southern Virginia, up to somewhere in Pennsylvania. All at once the next one, 20050127 00Z, showed the warm shot not coming, the 0-line passing through Virginia and hence possible wintry precipitation for Va and for northeast NC. There was also a second storm next Tuesday on these runs, with wintry precip, but it looks much weaker and farther south - like in NC or SC, on the 6Z and 12Z runs today. What caused the sudden change in the GFS? The GFS is like that. Last year, a devastating hurricane hitting Charleston, SC with the force of Hugo suddenly vanished from the GFS about a week and a half before it was to occur. Instead, western Virginia had sunny weather.