Pacific Northwest Weather

[W13]

A very quiet weather day here, after a few morning rain showers that brought 0.03" of rain to the area. We have also had some light winds today, averaging about 6 mph in recent hours. Our wind gust for the day so far has been 25 mph.


As for this weekend, it is looking like it has potential. Looking at the latest models, the GFS has the low developing off of Vancouver Island and sweeping it down from the North, and then invading the rest of Western Washington and Northwestern Oregon. This is also what the latest 48 Hours NGM is showing, but it is showing a good amount of precip, I think even more so than the GFS. Here is the latest NGM for people to look at:



If that low just tracks a little bit more south, then we are in buisness. We will be getting significant Frazer Outflow at this time if this low does do that, and go into Northern Oregon.

The MRF on the other hand, is much slower in developing the low. It shows the low developing after 12z on Sunday, then brings the low in, kind of spread apart, to all of Western Washington and Oregon. If this were to happen Sunday Night (the low holding off until then and then sweeping in like that, then we could be talking about some snow there as well). Here is the MRF for 48h, 60h and 72h:







The AVN is quicker to bring in some light precip around Saturday afternoon. Then it rapidly strengthens the low and sweeps it more south than what the other models are displaying. Here is the latest AVN Models for the 36h, 48h and 60h:








Later tonight I will analyze the latest runs of the different models, and give my preliminary insight on what will go down Saturday evening/Sunday morning.

Here TT, this is the post I made earlier this afternoon examining the latest runs of a few of the neglected models. These models show entire different scenarios that may or may not happen. Tell me what you think, and then go look at some of the other models as well (Canadian, Euro, etc.). I will also be examining other models later tonight.

[andycottle]

Just had pea sized hail here folks! Pretty amazing! Only lasted about maybe 6 or 7min. so will go with trace of hail. And now...JUST HAD THUNDER! Oh I`m excited! -- Andy PS: temp at 41 here at 6:04pm.

[andycottle]

T-Storm has just developed just a little ways from me. And also had somwwhat of a bright flash of lightning. Raining moderatly! Ohhh yesss! Now rain is really comeing down. And think I hear hail agian. Out to check. Sorry for spelling error.

[W13]

Sounds like your having fun Andy!

I wish we would get active weather like you guys are having today sometimes ...

[andycottle]

More thunder, and lightning here folks! Temp now down to 39 as of 6:19pm!

[andycottle]

Oh yes...! Now see, if I was a Seattle NWS spotter...I would be calling this in. For sure!

[W13]

Oh yes...! Now see, if I was a Seattle NWS spotter...I would be calling this in. For sure!

How do you become one in the first place? Do you have to take a class or something?

Thanks.

[R-Dub]

Well I don't know if its transformers blowing in the distance, or lightning.......But something is going on. There have been several flashes of light off to the east. Still very windy here out of the due West, branches down on the road, ect. Seems more like lightning flashes though.

So nice to see some exciting weather again

[R-Dub]

Well Andy just answered my question!!! Must be lightning!!!!

[W13]

Well I don't know if its transformers blowing in the distance, or lightning.......But something is going on. There have been several flashes of light off to the east. Still very windy here out of the due West, branches down on the road, ect. Seems more like lightning flashes though.

So nice to see some exciting weather again

Jeff Renner of King 5 News was just on a moment ago discussing the thunder cell out towards the woodinville area. It didn't look like much else was on the radar near you R-Dub, so I assume it isn't thunder and lightning. The lightning started a fire at a gas station a few minutes ago as well, as reported on King 5 News.

[AnthonyC]

According to radar, seems like a decent thunderstorm developed around the Duvall area...it is currently travelling to the east, southeast and should weaken with no daytime heating and cooler temperatures at the surface. The last half an hour has been interesting...flashes of lightning could be seen in the east direction.

As for Sunday, not sure what to say. Here's an observation, and don't look at this negatively. With our last brush with arctic air/snow, all surface lows that developed off the Vancouver Island coast tended to stay offshore and then move inland over southern Oregon, northern California. That happened two or three times with the pattern in early January, and I see no reason why it wouldn't happen again with this event. There is some differences though. First, all surface lows that developed in early January orginated in the Gulf of Alaska. This current system...clearly depicted on satellite...is further south and heading in a more westerly direction. In any event, it's still something to watch but the latest ETA model continues to show a dry day over Puget Sound on Sunday. It's gonna be a "wait-and-see" event...meaning no forecaster will know the exact details until something happens...or more likely doesn't happen.

Anthony

Temperature has dropped significantly the past two hours...now down to 40 F with light wind. R-Dub, I'm surprised Mukilteo is not seeing any wind...the Olympic mountains may be blocking the westerly direction.

[TT-SEA]

Yes... just picked up my kids in Issaquah and driving home we saw numerous flashes of lightning to the north. But no rain... in fact skies were clear along I-90.

I have said before... we could get some slushy snow (particularly in Kitsap County). This is not arctic air though so it will just be mush if it comes and melt in a few hours.

There is no prolonged cold spell here. It looks and feels like spring. And an inch or two of slush on Sunday will not change that.

I do not want anyone screaming at me on Sunday. Please see above. I would not be shocked if a little snow falls. This competition is annoying.

[W13]

Yes... just picked up my kids in Issaquah and driving home we saw numerous flashes of lightning to the north. But no rain... in fact skies were clear along I-90.

I have said before... we could get some slushy snow (particularly in Kitsap County). This is not arctic air though so it will just be mush if it comes and melt in a few hours.

There is no prolonged cold spell here. It looks and feels like spring. And an inch or two of slush on Sunday will not change that.

I do not want anyone screaming at me on Sunday. Please see above. I would not be shocked if a little snow falls. This competition is annoying.

Have you had a chance to look at the recent model runs of the models I told you about? I am not just talking about a few slushy inches, I am talking about a few good inches of snow (possible 3-4 in some locations), and then highs will not get out of the 30's on Sunday (NWS predicts the high will be around 41 F, minus 2-3 F because of snow on the ground).

[R-Dub]

I wonder with the clear skies here in my area is allowing the lightning to be more visable?? I don't hear any thunder, just flashes of light in the distance to the east.

Anthony, yeah it got pretty wild here for a while, the straight West wind was making me a little nervous as there are several huge Fur trees that were bending towards the house. Makes me nervous because trees get acustom to bending from the south wind, they are not used to strong winds from any other direction. At the golf course we always lose the most trees from strong winds from the West, or North. Unless we get one of those major South wind events, then it doesn't matter!!!

[R-Dub]

2/4/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:52:02 PM CURRENT
Mostly Clear/Windy
Temperature (ºF) 42.6
Humidity (%) 83.7
Wind (mph) W 18.9
Daily Rain (") 0.28
Pressure ("Hg) 30.04
Dew Point: 38.0 ºF

[R-Dub]

If you loop the radar, you will see the wind clutter right at my location!! (I am located right in the middle of that clutter due east of Camano Island)
Sometimes looking at the radar can even tell you where its windy, like what is happing in my location right now!!

http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS ... katx.shtml

[andycottle]

Oh yes...! Now see, if I was a Seattle NWS spotter...I would be calling this in. For sure!

How do you become one in the first place? Do you have to take a class or something?

Thanks.

W13..
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/spotter.php To become a NWS spotter, you sort of do have to take a class. Well really...it`s more of a training session than class. From what I have learned from a friend of mine...they(the NWS spokes person(s)) tell you what to look for and how to spot certain weather. The link above tell a bit about what a spotter is, and also there is a link tot he weather spotter schedule.
Now coming up this March, 21st....there`s going to be a spotter training session in Redmond at the Redmond PD. I signed up for sometime late last year. You might can still get into this one, but you might be late doing so. There`s a couple others coming this spring that on that site...so you may want to try thoes also.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

As of about the last hour...and acording to the news weather report, that storm has moved off to Duvall area. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

I do not want anyone screaming at me on Sunday. Please see above. I would not be shocked if a little snow falls. This competition is annoying.

Sunday morning as its snowing like crazy.................

TT I TOLD YOU SOOOO AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

JUST KIDDING

No competition here!!! Just enjoyment for the weather
My post earlier wasn't intended to sound like competition or anything like that, just to clear it up

[W13]

Oh yes...! Now see, if I was a Seattle NWS spotter...I would be calling this in. For sure!

How do you become one in the first place? Do you have to take a class or something?

Thanks.

W13..
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/spotter.php To become a NWS spotter, you sort of do have to take a class. Well really...it`s more of a training session than class. From what I have learned from a friend of mine...they(the NWS spokes person(s)) tell you what to look for and how to spot certain weather. The link above tell a bit about what a spotter is, and also there is a link tot he weather spotter schedule.
Now coming up this March, 21st....there`s going to be a spotter training session in Redmond at the Redmond PD. I signed up for sometime late last year. You might can still get into this one, but you might be late doing so. There`s a couple others coming this spring that on that site...so you may want to try thoes also.

-- Andy

Thank you for the information, Andy! I will be trying to sign up for that ASAP.