Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... we will likely see some snow. But that is nothing special. We are not in the "lowlands" around the Puget Sound.

However... I would bet even right in North Bend it will be all rain.

For a lowland snow event... I would expect to see all of the Seattle area blanketed. That did not even happen when we had true arctic air in place and a wet low pressure system moving up from the south in January.

This is a little different because the end result will not be a Pineapple Express. Still... should be all rain where most of the people live in Western Washington.

[W13]

Yeah... we will likely see some snow. But that is nothing special. We are not in the "lowlands" around the Puget Sound.

However... I would bet even right in North Bend it will be all rain.

For a lowland snow event... I would expect to see all of the Seattle area blanketed. That did not even happen when we had true arctic air in place and a wet low pressure system moving up from the south in January.

This is a little different because the end result will not be a Pineapple Express. Still... should be all rain where most of the people live in Western Washington.

It is still WAY too early to make any predictions as the point, especially since even the professionals can't make a definite decision at this point.

Oh, and I am willing to bet that downtown North Bend DOES get at least some snow tonight, or if it doesn't it will simply because no precipitation moved into that area because of too strong of Easterly wids etc, but it will be cold enough in North Bend tonight for sure.

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

What's your elevation where you live?

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...You are correct that the satellite does not look really impressive now, but there are some good materials to work with out there. A very nice batch of moisture off the coast, with a deep cold trough digging down the BC coast. I will bet, that we will see some dramatic changes with this low over the next several hours.

This is one tough call all in all. I like the fact that we have dew points near freezing. That with heavy precip and offshore low level winds should do the trick. I hope this is a clear cut thing, where we can all agree on who was right and who was wrong. It would not surprise me if it ends up a draw. We will see.

[snow_wizzard]

A quick update...Covington current temp. 43 with a dew point of 29. That dew point is according to my top of the line thermo - hygrometer. That dew point with the wind still out of the SW is very nice indeed. Theoretically, that would equal a temeperature of 36 with wet bulb effect cooling. That folks, is on the edge for wet snow! Keep in mind it is currently the warmest part of the day with the wind still onshore. These numbers look good to me. I can't help but wonder if the fairly stronf south winds aloft the NWS is talking about could actually help areas east of Puget Sound get more snow. That phenomenon could actually block the east wind from getting to the Kitsap Pan, and create an artificial damming effect of the outflow winds. Just a theory.

I am sure TT will think I am on fairy tale tangent here! I confess...I always look for the best possible side of these things.

At any rate, the outflow areas should have a great chance of snow tonight and tomorrow. Keep in mind...it WILL start as rain, but don't get glum over that.

[W13]

Down to 39 F with a Dew Point of 31 F, as of 3:56 PM!

[R-Dub]

Here is where I am sitting at...........BTW did anyone see the Convergance zone pics I posted earlier? The PSCZ is a awesome thing, amazing that can form from just winds meeting from two opposite directions! I was at the park at about the start of this loop or just before. You can see it on radar, and real life
http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS ... katx.shtml

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

2/5/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:53:59 PM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 39.1
Humidity (%) 77.2
Wind (mph) SE 2.0
Daily Rain (") 0.02
Pressure ("Hg) 30.12
Dew Point: 33.3 ºF

[AnthonyC]

Mid and high level clouds have significantly increased the past two hours. Initially, not one lowland region will start as snow. For the rain to change to snow, we must rely on evaporative cooling and a dry, easterly wind developing. If those things don't materialize, this event is a bust.

Current temperature is 41F...I still can't imagine seeing lowland snow from this event. But hey, I'm no professional...just giving an honest observation. I'm still not impressed with the wave off the Washington coast...I've seen no development the last three hours. If that upper low moving down from the Gulf of Alaska could only meet up with the batch of moisture...things would be different.

I guess keep the faith alive. We won't know what happens until something starts falling from the sky.

Anthony

[W13]

I guess keep the faith alive. We won't know what happens until something starts falling from the sky.

Anthony

Exactly.

Still 39 F as of 4:20 PM

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...I love the convergence zone too. I kind of miss it living down here in Covington, but it does pay us a visit every now and then. The neat thing is, we have the big east winds here that don't occur in that area. The thing I do love about the weather here, is every location has something really unique about it. In a sense, I would get bored living in places that have more "exciting" weather bacause they do not have the wide of range of microclimates that we have.

Your picture certainly does capture how distinct the PSCZ can be!

The most exciting C zone I ever saw was in August of 1998 or 99. On that one a huge hail storm hit just south of Woodinville. The stones were up 3/4 inch in diameter and falling at a phenomonal rate! The sound inside of my car was deafening. It's those moments that make weather watching here such a joy. That was one of my few true experiences with storm chasing here.

[W13]

It now just dropped to 38 F, as of 5:04 PM.

[W13]

37 F as of 6:04 PM!

[TT-SEA]

Latest 00Z run of the ETA is unimpressive to say the least. And it should have a good handle on the strength now. The low never gets deeper than 1008 mb and the precipitation amounts looks pathetic. That is NOT a very dynamic low and there is no arctic air in the first place.

I think it is picking up on the fact that the low is just disorganized and will not get as deep as originally predicted. This should almost ensure a light, cold rain tomorrow for all areas.

40 degrees here now... up 2 degrees in the last hour. Does not feel like snow!!

Tomorrow afternoon...

[W13]

Latest 00Z run of the ETA is unimpressive to say the least. And it should have a good handle on the strength now. The low never gets deeper than 1008 mb and the precipitation amounts looks pathetic. That is NOT a very dynamic low and there is no arctic air in the first place.

I think it is picking up on the fact that the low is just disorganized and will not get as deep as originally predicted. This should almost ensure a light, cold rain tomorrow for all areas.

40 degrees here now... up 2 degrees in the last hour. Does not feel like snow!!

Tomorrow afternoon...

We shall see in just a few hours.

[R-Dub]

My current conditions..........

2/5/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:38:44 PM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 36.3
Humidity (%) 92.1
Wind (mph) ESE 1.8
Daily Rain (") 0.02
Pressure ("Hg) 30.09
Dew Point: 33.2 ºF

[skipnfamily]

37 degrees in Silverdale over in Kitsap

[TT-SEA]

00Z run of the GFS is just as wimpy with a 1008 mb low pressure system limping in tomorrow afternoon. The precipitation fields are always funny to look at on the GFS model because it so clearly just ignores the fact that the Cascade and Olympic Mountains are even there. It treats Western Washington as it does Iowa.

Here is tomorrow afternoon...

[R-Dub]

Good to hear from you again Skip! Its been a while!!

I am still sticking to what I said before that "anything can happen"!

I could take over Andy Wapplers job with that kind of a forecast

[TT-SEA]

Any one of us could take over for the local weather guys. Actually... Snow_Wizzard might freak some people out since this city shuts down completely if a snowstorm threatens!! That was a joke SW. I never watch the local media to get a forecast.

[TT-SEA]

Skip... I was out in Bremerton and Silverdale yesterday.

The skies were so clear over there yesterday afternoon. It must be nice to have sunshine (from downsloping off the Olympics) while Seattle and the Eastside have rain. Of course in a fog scenario it can be perfectly sunny here and foggy in Bremerton.

I had only driven through there once before and it was dark. It is really beautiful over there. I was very impressed. The water and the hills so close make it a pretty special place. I stopped by the area around Kitsap Mall... very nice.

Bremerton has a reputation as a run-down Navy town. I did not go downtown... but from what I saw of both Bremerton and Silverdale that is wrong. There are some really nice homes out there.