More bad news...

[hurricanetrack]

The good folks at TSR in the UK continue to predict a nasty hurricane season:

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... eb2005.pdf

[Scorpion]

I think this season is hyped, I doubt theres going to be many threats for Florida. Maybe a weak hurricane thats it.

[cycloneye]

Mark I think that there is a consensus building that an active season is on tap in 2005.My early numbers almost concide with them.But the key question is how the factors will combine to have an active 2005 similar to 2003-2004 or will be a little less active but above the average number of named storms.We will know more about the patterns shaping up in the comming weeks.The ENSO factor to me right now has turned into a neutral phase even if el nino 3-4 still are in positive anomalys but they are not significant only +1.0c.El nino 1-2 already is cooling west of Southamerica meaning that neutral conditions are spreading westward towards el nino 3-4 and by summer they will cool down too.What worries me the most is the Main Development Region (MDR) which according to the data shows a warm tropical atlantic and that means low latitud systems traveling west from the eastern Atlantic helped by the Bermuda High if it stays put the islands and further west will see a repeat of 2004 hopefully not.

[Lindaloo]

I think this season is hyped, I doubt theres going to be many threats for Florida. Maybe a weak hurricane thats it.

That is what they all were saying pre-season last year and well, you know what happened.

[MWatkins]

I think this season is hyped, I doubt theres going to be many threats for Florida. Maybe a weak hurricane thats it.

What are your reasons behind this...just curious...not sure who is hyping the season...if you think it's bad now wait till mid May.

I was about ready to put up a "yeah...but" post on the TSR guys...but honestly their forecasts have been pretty good since 2000...I didn't remember it that way.

In 2000 and 2001 they did not do a Feb update...but starting in 2002 they did. Here are the results vs. actual....in this order...NS..Hur...Major Hur:

May 2000 (rounded): 9 NS, 5 Hur, 2 Maj
Act 2000: (Final): 13 NS, 8 Hur, 3 maj

Jun 2001: 11, 6, 2
Act 2001: 14, 9, 4

Feb 2002: 14, 8, 3
Act 2002: 12, 4, 2

Feb 2003: 13, 8, 3
Act 2003: 15, 7, 3

Feb 2004: 14, 8, 3
Act 2004: 15, 8, 6

So the results from 5 years of history with TSR are that 4 of 5 years they
under forecast total activity and underforecast major hurricane counts...and only 1 year did they over-forecast results (in 2002..when a freakish Nino developed in the middle of the season which everyone missed).

So...based on their history...if TSR is wrong...they are going to be wrong on the low side of the scale...here are their rounded numbers for 2005:

14 named storms
8 hurricanes
4 majors

All of these numbers are the highest total forecast numbers in each category from this office since 2000. Unless there is a freakish nino again this season...given our existing bermuda high set-up and warm Atlantic SST values...this is probably going to be another active season.

In other posts...so far my best analogs to 2005 are the 1998 and 2004 seasons. This TSR forecast just adds to the arguement...

MW

[mobilebay]

I think this season is hyped, I doubt theres going to be many threats for Florida. Maybe a weak hurricane thats it.

This may be new info for some, but Florida isn't the only land mass in the Atlantic Basin.

[HurricaneBill]

This may be new info for some, but Florida isn't the only land mass in the Atlantic Basin.

Exactly. New England is overdue for a hurricane.

[george_r_1961]

Up here in Virginia on September 18, 2003 Isabel brought us to our knees, yet it was barely a Cat 1 as she moved thru the state. Despite this, folks here think she was "the big one". I believe the Mid Atlantic is LONG overdue to a major hurricane. A strong Bermuda High along with a trough between the coast and the Appalachians would provide the perfect setting for such a scenario. Fortunately when that happens there is usually one key ingredient missing: the storm itself. With the trend toward in increase in major hurricanes, its only a matter of time

[canegrl04]

The Texas coast is also due for hurricane hits.I think this could be the season we see a couple

[krysof]

especially new jersey

[yoda]

Up here in Virginia on September 18, 2003 Isabel brought us to our knees, yet it was barely a Cat 1 as she moved thru the state. Despite this, folks here think she was "the big one". I believe the Mid Atlantic is LONG overdue to a major hurricane. A strong Bermuda High along with a trough between the coast and the Appalachians would provide the perfect setting for such a scenario. Fortunately when that happens there is usually one key ingredient missing: the storm itself. With the trend toward in increase in major hurricanes, its only a matter of time

Totally agree. Especially with the scare of Hurricane Emily and her 130 mph winds off the MA coast in 1993...

[Scorpion]

New England really isn't known as a hurricane alley. It takes alot for a cane to make it up there. More likely I think are 2-3 major threats to Florida and the Eastern GOM. Maybe 1 for the Carolinas. The Mid-Atlantic is also extremely hard to get hit, maybe at most a Cat 1 or TS IMO.

[yoda]

New England really isn't known as a hurricane alley. It takes alot for a cane to make it up there. More likely I think are 2-3 major threats to Florida and the Eastern GOM. Maybe 1 for the Carolinas. The Mid-Atlantic is also extremely hard to get hit, maybe at most a Cat 1 or TS IMO.

Hard maybe, but when they do get it, they get pounded.

[HurricaneBill]

New England really isn't known as a hurricane alley. It takes alot for a cane to make it up there. More likely I think are 2-3 major threats to Florida and the Eastern GOM. Maybe 1 for the Carolinas. The Mid-Atlantic is also extremely hard to get hit, maybe at most a Cat 1 or TS IMO.

New England may not get as much as Florida, but when we get hit, we get HIT.

Past New England hurricanes:

1953 Hurricane Carol

1954 Hurricane Carol

1954 Hurricane Edna

1960 Hurricane Donna

1969 Hurricane Gerda

1972 Hurricane Agnes

1976 Hurricane Belle

1985 Hurricane Gloria

1991 Hurricane Bob

[Aslkahuna]

You forgot two major New England hits-the Long Island Express of 1938 and the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944.

Steve

[Brent]

I think this season is hyped, I doubt theres going to be many threats for Florida. Maybe a weak hurricane thats it.

Just because the season will be active doesn't mean Florida will be hit like it was last year. That was a once in a lifetime event.

[Tertius]

I think this season is hyped, I doubt theres going to be many threats for Florida. Maybe a weak hurricane thats it.

Just because the season will be active doesn't mean Florida will be hit like it was last year. That was a once in a lifetime event.

Sure it was but only because of the number of storms that landed. I think what people tend to forget is that outside of the Punta Gorda hit those storms could have been far worse.

Here in Palm Beach County we were hit twice, by Jeanne and Frances, but in both cases the storms weakened considerably before landing. We tend to remember here how bad things were, and they WERE bad, but we tend to forget that each storm could easily have been a Cat 5 instead of the 2-3 we actually got. I remember, especially with Frances, I was buttoned down way tight 72 hours in advance of eventual landfall but I spent a good deal of time wondering if our house could withstand structurally what appeared to be coming. That thing was a freakin MONSTER 72 hours out. Then of course it practically stalled and weakened in it's own churn-up before coming ashore.

It looks as is this year will offer plenty to interest storm watchers. Florida could get hit by half as many 'canes, two, but if those storms keep their intensity as they land they will cause even more hardship than last years. I only hope it isn't here again; I've seen my storms, y'all can have em.

[Rainband]

Being overdue doesn't mean a hit is likely. Last year was very rare. Every year is different and only time will tell.

[MWatkins]

Being overdue doesn't mean a hit is likely. Last year was very rare. Every year is different and only time will tell.

Exactly...Rainband. This came up on the eve of Hurricane Season last year (we discussed it)...here's the bulk of that post plus some additional detail:

There really isn't such a thing as "Overdue" probability wise. I'll explain.

The difference is between shuffling and randomizing. Let's say we were betting on whether or not a black card would be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards. If I'm betting that it will happen, my chance of winning the bet goes up every time a red card comes off the deck, as long as the old cards are not used again.

At the onset of the bet, 26 of the 52 cards are black, giving me a 50% chance of being right. If we go 20 deals in a row with a red card, my chances of winning go WAY up because sooner or later a black card is "due", in this case I have 26 chances with 32 cards left, a whopping 82% chance. The deck is shuffled, but a card cannot appear more than once.

Nature, however, does not shuffle. Every season, and every storm, is one card out of a full deck. Nature reshuffles after every card (storm) is played, meaning that the probabilty of having a black card is ALWAYS 50%. It never changes.

Thus, the deck is always randomized. So just because we have had 26 red cards in a row, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next one is black.

In retrospect...and after an exchange with wxman...the anaolgy does need a little revision.

Atmospheric conditions can line up so that the deck is stacked somewhat...so that there are 26 black cards and onlu 20 red cards in the deck for example. But these things happen independently of a specific point on the map. For example...Ft Lauderdale is "Overdue" for a direct hit from a hurricane. All of the atmospheric conditions needed to stack the deck in Ft Lauderdales favor for a hit were present last year...yet no direct hit. Does this mean that FTL is still due? No.

The atmosphere has no memory...no location is in trouble just because they have gone a long time without a direct hit (New Orleans...or Tampa) for the same reason that the Carolinas aren't safe from a hurricane just because they were impacted so much in the 1990's and early 2000's. What governs this is the synoptic and meso-scale features in play during a hurricane season...which also explains why dynamic models trounce the statistical models.

Even if the atmosphere behaved absoultely according to the laws of statistics and every year was the same...and lets say we have a HUGE thousands and thousands of years woth of data (we're only working with less than 60 years of reliable data)...a location could still see long gaps in activity.

Let's take a city that has a 7% chance of experiencing a hurricane in a given year (such as New Orleans if my memory is correct). 7% is 7 chances in 100 of a hit. What if the city had a hurricane for 7 years in a row...they then could go 186 years in a row before the next visit before the stats would show a variance (93 more chances to get to even, and 93 more before the next hit was "due"). And the law of large numbers tells us that we need more than just 200 years to see a statistical smoothing over time...so perhaps we wouldnt measure the expected return rate (over time) for thousands of years after that.

Even Ft Lauderdale, which has a high expected return rate of 27% for a hurricane, could go 146 years without a return even if statistics were forced to behave with a 27 storms per 100 years rule.
Hope I explained that OK...

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why is this bad news? Tropical cyclones have there place on this planet. In have been here for hundreds of Millions of years. If Earths is forming more then it must meen that it needs to lets of some more steam to support live/us. These storms are part of what keeps are planet working. They are very important. If you don't like the heat get out of the stove/Fireplace/microwave/oven. That is all I have to say.

As long as are Atmosphere works I'm happy. Because I in my family gets to live.