Tropical Cyclone Nancy (18P)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/0157 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 167.3W AT 120000 UTC MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE LLCC IS SLIPPING UNDER THE CDO. SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BANDING TO THE EAST, WRAPPING 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. DVORAK ASSESSMENT DT =3.0, MET=PT=2.5 GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED. OUTFLOW BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS ENHANCED BY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH AND BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WESTERLY STEERING EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.7S 166.9W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.9S 167.1W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.3S 167.3W SSW 05 WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 15.1S 167.1W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AT 120830 UTC.




TD 09F / Invest 93P continues to get better organized and an official tropical cyclone can develop during the weekend to come. Warm waters, low shear, and slow movement should allow the system to intensify. The next name to be used in the South Pacific would be "Nancy;" a beautiful name for a tropical cyclone. Don't you think so?

[HURAKAN]

12/1452 UTC 12.9S 166.0W T3.0/3.0 93P -- South Pacific Ocean

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1349 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 166.7W AT 121200 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A SMALL CDO HAS APPEARED JUST EAST OF THE LLCC RECENTLY. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT, MET AND PT AGREE AT 2.5. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THIS HAS RETARDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOFAR. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER 09F SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DIFFER IN OPINION ABOUT 09F. BRACKNELL AND NOGAPS FAVOUR INTENSIFICATION OF DEPRESSION 08F LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF 09F. ECMWF, GFS AND GFDL SUPPORT 09F AT THE EXPENSE OF 08F.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122030 UTC.



Even though satellite images doesn't illustrate a tropical cyclone of tropical storm intensity, Dvorak classifies this cyclone as 3.0 or 50 mph. Fiji still doesn't recognize the cyclone as an organized one. Is possible Dvorak can have mistakes? I don't know but satellite pictures doesn't lie.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much, much better right now, so Dvorak seems more credible with this satellite image. Let wait to see what Fiji has to say in the next advisory about the system.

[senorpepr]

They've upgraded to Nancy...

Gale Warning 037 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1933 UTC 2005 UTC.

Correction...

Tropical Cyclone NANCY centre [995 hPa] was located near 12 decimal 8
South 165 decimal 8 West at 121800 UTC.

Position Poor.

Repeat position 12.8S 165.8W at 121800 UTC.

Cyclone moving towards the east at about 5 knots but expected to
curve southwards later.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to
45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the sector
from north through east to south and within 60 miles of centre
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 13.4S 165.8W at 130600 UTC.
and near 13.8S 166.5W at 131800 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every
three hours to RSMC Nadi. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 036.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/2017 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 165.8W AT 121800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

A SMALL CDO IS DEVELOPING OVER LLCC. MAIN BAND TO EAST DEVELOPING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND IT. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.6 TO 0.7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MET AND PT AGREE AT 3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE CAUGHT UNDER REGION OF WEAK STEERING, HOWEVER, CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE TREKKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 13.4S 165.8W MOV S 3KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 13.8S 166.5W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.6W MOV S 3KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130200 UTC.

As senorpepr indicated in the post above, Nancy has formed in the South Pacific and the future seems promising for the system, not for the islanders in her path.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/122151ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 091 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 166.6W9 TO 14.0S5 163.4W4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MET­ SAT IMAGERY AT 121730Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTH­ EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8 167.0W4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 121221Z9 AMSR-E PASS DEPICTS A SMALL WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED CROSS-EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132200Z8.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/0151 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [993hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 165.3W AT 130000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY IS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CDO PERSISTING PAST 12 HOURS. MAIN BAND TO EAST STRUGGLING TO WRAP AROUND CDO. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SHEAR STILL PROMINENT. CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED SLIGHTLY PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. MET=3.5. PT=3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER WEAK STEERING FIELD. CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE TREKKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 13.5S 166.0W MOV SW 4KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

24HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 14.0S 166.0W MOV SW 3KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.9W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC.


Nancy continues to intensify and maintains its small and compact structure. Further intensification is possible as the system moves poleward.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Jtwc has hit rock bottom! I can't say no more I would get banned!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/1408 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [987hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 164.6W AT 130600 UTC MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON 130559 UTC SSMI IMAGE AND GOES9/10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. CDO PERSISTING WITH EXPANDING AREA OF COLD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WEAK NORTHWEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO BE LIMITING NANCY'S RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON MET=3.0: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL RETURN FLOW AND ALSO GOOD IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER WEAK STEERING FIELD. CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTHWARD TURN BEFORE A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 13.8S 164.4W MOV S 03KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 14.4S 164.2W MOV SSE 03KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.6S 163.4W MOV SSE 04KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 16.5S 162.9W MOV SE 06KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC.

Well, Little Nancy or "Nancita" continues to intensify as it moves slowly over the South Pacific Ocean. Slow intensification should remain constant over the next days as indicated by Fiji.

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

Storm Warning 040 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/1305 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone NANCY centre [987 hPa] was located near 13 decimal 2
South 164 decimal 5 West at 131200 UTC.

Position Fair.

Repeat position 13.2S 164.5W at 131200 UTC.

Cyclone moving towards the south southeast at about 05 knots but
expected to turn southwards.

Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre increasing to
55 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the sector
from north through east to south and within 60 miles of centre
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 13.8S 164.4W at 140000 UTC.
and near 14.4S 164.2W at 141200 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every
three hours to RSMC Nadi. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 039.

[Gorky]

I don't think this is 45kt anymore A pin hole eye like that is usually indicative of a strong hurricane/typhoon/cylcone

[Aquawind]

I don't think this is 45kt anymore A pin hole eye like that is usually indicative of a strong hurricane/typhoon/cylcone

Well said.. Impressive little eye..

Paul

[*StOrmsPr*]

Hurricane Warning 047 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0059 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone NANCY centre [965 hPa] was located near 14 decimal 0 South 164
decimal 0 West at 140000 UTC. Position Good.

Repeat position 14.0S 164.0W at 140000 UTC.

Cyclone moving south at about 04 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre increasing to 100 knots
in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre in the sector from north
through east to south and within 90 miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 15.2S 163.3W at 141200 UTC.
and near 16.9S 162.9W at 150000 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours
to RMC Wellington. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046.

[senorpepr]

Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre increasing to 100 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Wow... 80 becoming 100 knots, converted from kt to mph and from 10-min to 1-min average, would be 105 becoming 130 mph.

[*StOrmsPr*]

Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre increasing to 100 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Wow... 80 becoming 100 knots, converted from kt to mph and from 10-min to 1-min average, would be 105 becoming 130 mph.

IN NRL they have Nancy now at 100kt and 944mb !!


from NRL
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home

[Aslkahuna]

Nancy appears to have bombed over the past several hours and now shows a very well defined eye in the visible satellite imagery.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0210 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 164.0W
AT 140000 UTC MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 04 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED
GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN IRREGULAR BUT WARM
EYE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUNDING MG
EYE YIELDING DT=6.0. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON PT, BREAKING
CONSTRAINTS: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/12HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ASSISTED BY TWIN OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO NORTH AND SOUTHEAST.
WEAK NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS CYCLONE MOVES PARALLEL TO SHEAR.
NANCY HAS COMMENCED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH
SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 15.2S 163.3W MOV SSE 07KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 16.9S 162.9W MOV S 08KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 18.6S 162.9W MOV S 09KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 20.4S 162.7W MOV S 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140800 UTC.

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN IRREGULAR BUT WARM EYE. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ASSISTED BY TWIN OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. WEAK NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS CYCLONE MOVES PARALLEL TO SHEAR.
-Fiji

[cycloneye]

Now up to 120kts.

[senorpepr]

Officially up to 125 mph (1-min avg)

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0753 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 163.4W
AT 140600 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH.
POSITION FAIR BASED GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO
110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES
OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN IRREGULAR BUT WARM
EYE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH COLD MEDIUM GRAY
SURROUNDING MG EYE YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=5.0 AND PAT=5.5. FT BASED ON
PAT, BREAKING CONSTRAINTS: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ASSISTED BY TWIN OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. WEAK
NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND NANCY IS
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE
EAST BUT EXPECTED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT SOON DUE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH SOME TURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 162.8W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 16.9S 162.5W MOV S 10KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 18.5S 162.1W MOV S 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 20.2S 161.7W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 141400 UTC.