Bermuda High may steer hurricanes toward Florida again

[wxcrazy]

I surely hope this is not true, becasue I got hit by 3 of those 4, and that was the first time I really have been in some serious hurricanes, the first being Bob I believe in 1991.

[Derek Ortt]

warmer in the east would mean a greater threat to the EC due to the ideal gas law and the continuity equation. The warm air would expand upward, meaning we need low-level convergence, which leads to a low-pressure system at the EC, which could suck canes into Hat, like what happened with Alex and Charley. While there would be recurvers, the overall threat may be icnreased due to the offsore resulting ridge

[cycloneye]

Also warmer conditions means the gulfstream waters will warm more rapidly giving the fuel to the systems.

[krysof]

but what if its cooler, doesn't a high pressure also form when its cool or dry

[rainstorm]

i have to disagree. just looking back at past seasons, hot eastern summers see few landfalls

[yoda]

warmer in the east would mean a greater threat to the EC due to the ideal gas law and the continuity equation. The warm air would expand upward, meaning we need low-level convergence, which leads to a low-pressure system at the EC, which could suck canes into Hat, like what happened with Alex and Charley. While there would be recurvers, the overall threat may be icnreased due to the offsore resulting ridge

Interesting... noticing how those areas north of NC (VA-New England) are overdue for a hurricane/TS landfall besides Isabel.

[rainstorm]

just going back and looking at active season. 1985 and 1996 had lots of cane hits on the east coast and gom, but the summers were very cool.
80 88 95 all had warmer than normal summer and very few cane hits

[krysof]

what about 2004, it was a cool summer, but no cane hits for those areas, and I mean areas north of the carolinas, but Alex never made landfall either.

[rainstorm]

what about 2004, it was a cool summer, but no cane hits for those areas, and I mean areas north of the carolinas, but Alex never made landfall either.

goes along with the general trend. i am looking mainly at the east coast and fla east coast. it was a cool summer last year and fla got slammed. also, the east coast, while not getting a direct hit, was severely impacted by jeanne, ivan, gaston, frances, alex, and charley. had it been an above normal summer temp wise, this wouldnt have happened

[yoda]

what about 2004, it was a cool summer, but no cane hits for those areas, and I mean areas north of the carolinas, but Alex never made landfall either.

goes along with the general trend. i am looking mainly at the east coast and fla east coast. it was a cool summer last year and fla got slammed. also, the east coast, while not getting a direct hit, was severely impacted by jeanne, ivan, gaston, frances, alex, and charley. had it been an above normal summer temp wise, this wouldnt have happened

Hmmm... this may be interesting to research. I will do some research on this. However, Derek is right.

[rainstorm]

what about 2004, it was a cool summer, but no cane hits for those areas, and I mean areas north of the carolinas, but Alex never made landfall either.

goes along with the general trend. i am looking mainly at the east coast and fla east coast. it was a cool summer last year and fla got slammed. also, the east coast, while not getting a direct hit, was severely impacted by jeanne, ivan, gaston, frances, alex, and charley. had it been an above normal summer temp wise, this wouldnt have happened

Hmmm... this may be interesting to research. I will do some research on this. However, Derek is right.

cane hits are much less likely in warmer than normal summers. they happen, but much less often

[krysof]

well the northeast coast is long long overdue, especially new jersey. The state and western long island are inward areas, which prevent direct hits from a 'cane' but with the perfect track, eventually it will be hit hard. NYC will eventually see a direct hit by a hurricane or major hurricane. A major hurricane is very unlikely because of the cooler ocean temperatures needed to support a hurricane, but it could and probably someday will happen.

[MGC]

It all depends if and where the upper ridge sets up. Like in 1980 when Allen went around a persistant upper ridge that brought record heat to the nation. Last season saw the Bermuda ridge dominate most of the season. But like RS said there was a trough over the EC much of the season.....MGC

[Scorpion]

I beg to differ. Last summer here was very hot and humid. More so than 2002 or 2003. Maybe the east coast, but not here.

[george_r_1961]

just going back and looking at active season. 1985 and 1996 had lots of cane hits on the east coast and gom, but the summers were very cool.
80 88 95 all had warmer than normal summer and very few cane hits

Helen the warmer than normal conditions were more than likely caused by the Bermuda High building westward. High pressure deflects the storms. The cooler conditions no doubt were caused by a persistant trough; as we all know a properly positioned trough can draw in a hurricane like a magnet.

[rainstorm]

makes sense. warmer conditions can also be due to a large high over the central states

[george_r_1961]

makes sense. warmer conditions can also be due to a large high over the central states

That would bring northerly winds to the EC

[rainstorm]

MORE NORTHWESTERLY. the summer of 80 was extremely hot on the east coast as a huge high centered over the central plains gave the east coast hot, dry northwesterly flow

[cajungal]

Just remember everyone, it does not take an active season to get devestating results. Example: Andrew did not hit until the last week of August and look what happened. The rest of the season remained quiet. And look at Betsy in 1965, it was only the "B" storm and she did not hit until the second week of September. She slammed into Key Largo and then hit Grand Isle with 160 mph winds gusts and almost destroyed the island. And devestated Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishs and New Orleans was under water. And several times when a storm hit south Florida, southeast Louisiana was under the gun next. Like Andrew and Betsy did. Last year, Louisiana was fortunate. 4 Florida hits but none came close to Louisiana. Everyone got a scare with Ivan when we went under the hurricane warning. But, I already knew he was going to steer further east and we would not be affected.

[Rainband]

exactly. it only takes one