0Z 2/21 EC: NE Gulf low/IP,ZR threat DEEP SE 2/27-8

[LarryWx]

While still too far out for any kind of reliability, the 0Z 2/21 ECMWF run is very interesting for the SE US nonetheless and is near perfect for a deep SE winter storm. IF these maps were to verify (of course a BIG IF this far out), imo there'd be significant ZR/IP deep into the SE starting late SUN 2/27 and into MON 2/28 for the southern half of AL, much of GA (heaviest central/southern), most of SC including Columbia, and then on MON for much of the eastern half of NC as the low moves NEward just offshore the Carolina's while a cold 1028 surface high is wedging down as far west as eastern AL. The upper level 500 mb flow is a very moist WSWerly flow overrunning a cold low level E/NE flow. This potential ZR/IP area all has 850's in the 0 to +5 range with the 0C line from just E of Athens to just N of Augusta and Columbia to near Fayetteville and New Bern. There'd be snow in NE GA, NW SC, and western NC to the north of this 0C line.

[JenyEliza]

VERY cool!

Keep us SE people updated!

Jeny

[wlfpack81]

Looks like Florida would get a nice dose of rain out of this system as well IF the models were to verify.

[Brent]

I don't want an ice storm.

[DLI2k5]

Larry, thanks as always for your insightful and informative posts! It's good to hear Columbia may be getting in on some of the winter wx action if indeed this storm came to fruition. With the 0 degree line right around our area, do you think it's out of the realm of possibility we get some snow from this as well or possibly some sort of transition to snow? Also, from what you're seeing now , does it look as though this storm may be rather strong and longer lasting?

[SnowGod]

Of course the 12z European comes in and looks nuts. I hope you guys get a good winter storm that knocks down power lines, disrupts travel and causes a federal emergency

[LarryWx]

Larry, thanks as always for your insightful and informative posts! It's good to hear Columbia may be getting in on some of the winter wx action if indeed this storm came to fruition. With the 0 degree line right around our area, do you think it's out of the realm of possibility we get some snow from this as well or possibly some sort of transition to snow? Also, from what you're seeing now , does it look as though this storm may be rather strong and longer lasting?

You're welcome.

I don't have time for maps now and will have to run very soon, but a quick look at the just released 2/21 12Z EC for the SE is showing a stronger storm with a slightly further westward track meaning imo more threat of significant ZR for the ATL area (vs. IP on the 0Z run) with perhaps more of a sleet threat for NE GA/NW SC and not as far south a wintry threat for southern AL/GA/SC. I'll check the 850's later when they're available. I was told by someone who has acces to the maps that the 0Z run was showing ~.25-.50" QPF for ATL and other nearby areas. With the stronger low and more westward track, I'm betting this run will show significantly larger precip. amounts with 0.75-1"+ for ATL now. I'm just guessing.

I'm guessing the model is suggesting Columbia would get mainly freezing rain, but I don't have the 850 maps yet. Yes, a transition to a little snow at the end wouldn't shock me, but it wouldn't be significant based on this run. I have to run.

And one more thing: please don't shoot the messenger.
If it suggests ice to me, I'm going to tell it as I see it. Sorry folks!

[Suncat]

If Atlanta is looking at ice, is it too early to tell if the Raleigh area will be getting anything significant? I'm hoping it won't be in the form of the stuff that Atlanta is might be getting!

[krysof]

you don't like ice?

[JenyEliza]

I don't want an ice storm.

Me neither.

SNOW PLEASE....or sleet, possibly rain alternately. But, NOT ICE.

Jeny

[krysof]

i would love an ice storm, usually in the winter we get just snow or rain not ice.

[Brent]

I don't want an ice storm.

Me neither.

SNOW PLEASE....or sleet, possibly rain alternately. But, NOT ICE.

Jeny

I hate ice, but I've also already had an ice storm. It either needs to snow or rain.

[Brent]

i would love an ice storm, usually in the winter we get just snow or rain not ice.

No you wouldn't trust me. Power outages for days, trapped in your home because the roads are iced over, trees and limbs falling all the time and your wondering if it's going to fall on the house. Not fun. Plus the mess it leaves behind. It's been 3 weeks since we had ours and there's still trees and limbs all over the place.

[krysof]

well it could be worse

[krysof]

when is winter officially over?

[SnowGod]

Looking at the 12z Euro to the 0z Euro, that was quite a flip. The core of the arctic air moves over the upper Midwest with a real wintery looking pattern East of the Rockies ? I am tired of winter, since Eastern Ohio has been screwed over so many times this year, might as well end the suffering. Hopefully my idea for a Warm up after March 5th happens. Temps around 60-65, nice warm sunny breeze, where have you gone 2000?

[Brent]

when is winter officially over?

Uh... March 21st(give or take a day).

[JenyEliza]

i would love an ice storm, usually in the winter we get just snow or rain not ice.

No you wouldn't trust me. Power outages for days, trapped in your home because the roads are iced over, trees and limbs falling all the time and your wondering if it's going to fall on the house. Not fun. Plus the mess it leaves behind. It's been 3 weeks since we had ours and there's still trees and limbs all over the place.

Good post, Brent!!

[JenyEliza]

I don't want an ice storm.

Me neither.

SNOW PLEASE....or sleet, possibly rain alternately. But, NOT ICE.

Jeny

I hate ice, but I've also already had an ice storm. It either needs to snow or rain.

Exactly. We HAD our ice storm for the year. We've had NO SNOW...so it either needs to be snow, or rain...but definitely NOT ice again.

Jeny

[QCWx]

I doubt you'd find any roads iced over from ZR this time of year unless a substantial amount of ip falls preceeding it.