Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

The pattern for the end of the week sounds very familar, systems slipping south and moving into Cali. I see no reason to disagree with NWS this time, its a pattern that has happened time and time again. I really don't think much will come of these storms.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 330 AM PST SUN MAR 13 2005

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SE ACROSS WA ON WED...AND THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WRN WA SOME PCPN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT IT IS A RATHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT...IT WON`T BE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. MOST LIKELY WE WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS -- MAINLY IN A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE -- AND SOMEWHAT MORE SOLID PCPN OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. ANOTHER SIMILAR UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW PROBABLY ON THU.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL IDEA BUT STILL DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST TO 150W ON THU...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH NEAR 50N/130W ON FRI. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WOULD BRING WRN WA BACK INTO A MOIST SW FLOW...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONSOLIDATED JET MAY WIND UP FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. I WILL STAY WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW -- AND GOING AGAINST A DRY PERSISTENCE FORECAST HAS BEEN A BAD BET FOR MOST OF THE WINTER. MCDONNAL &&

[TT-SEA]

I understand the caution.

But this time its different.

The entire West Coast could get hit next weekend and beyond. Though over time the PNW will become the focus.

Its coming.

[andycottle]

I had a low of 33. Sunny clear skies right with a temp of 35 and humidity 100% with baro at 30.24 and steady. -- Andy

[andycottle]

The 06z showing our dry strech of weather lasting through about Tuesday night or Wednesday. Then for the 17th - 22nd, looks like we`ll mainly have cool showery weather, but nothing all to heavy. However, come the 23rd -28th...it appears that we`ll have some pretty heavy and rainy systems about every other day. So we could be in for very wet pattern.

[AnthonyC]

I have to agree with R-Dub...

I still think a change is coming, but I don't think it will be as dramatic as many hope. The latest NWS discussion doesn't seem too impressed with this pattern shift. Looking at the latest GFS, things still look on track...but I have noticed the storm track is further south...which would give us cooler but drier weather. At this point, we need all the RAIN we can get. I guess only time will tell.

Today and tomorrow still look awesome...and temperatures seem to get warmer everyday. Just a few days ago, Monday was supposed to be around 50F...now it's still in the upper 50s. Anyone see a theme here this winter?! We just CAN'T get RAIN/COLD weather. lol.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

I am not too confident about the details... but in early April we will look back to this week as the beginning of the long-awaited pattern change.

The entire global pattern is shifting to a more normal configuration and that will lead to wetter and cooler weather here.

[R-Dub]

3/13/05 LK Goodwin WA
9:25:08 AM CURRENT
Sunny
Temperature (ºF) 46.4
Humidity (%) 59.5
Wind (mph) NW 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.44
Dew Point: 34.4 ºF

[R-Dub]

Like Anthony says, last week the forecast highs for this weekend and first of next week were upper 40's to low 50's, what happend to that????
Latest forecast shows mid 60's today!!
The story of this odd winter, cooler temps/rain/ect just keeps getting pushed back and pushed back, until when the expected change is supposed to happen, the big cool down turns into warm temps, and rain turns into maybe a sprinkle, then back to sun.
I do think there might be a bit of a pattern change, but not nearly the magitude the models are saying!
I predict a little cooler temps upper 40's to mid 50's, and maybe some light rain or showers that won't last very long with systems slipping south.

Just my 2 cents though

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 415 AM PST SUN MAR 13 2005 SPOT TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOR TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. WAZ006>008-132330- EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-TACOMA AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERETT...EDMONDS...LYNNWOOD... MARYSVILLE...ARLINGTON...SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...FEDERAL WAY... KENT...RENTON...TACOMA...LAKEWOOD...PUYALLUP...SUMNER 415 AM PST SUN MAR 13 2005

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WIND TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. EAST WIND TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S.

[snow_wizzard]

Hey guys...There is little doubt that TT is right. The PNA has already plunged from nearly +4 to about -1. The observed weather will have to react to that. Furthermore, the PNA will continue to drop until it is around -3 in a few days. After that it briefly rises to -1 and then tanks again. The lower PNA has already resulted in much cooler nights. Covington went below freezing last night.

The details continue to be fuzzy about whether the cold or the moisture will be the bigger story a week from now. After that, it appears the precip will really kick in with a vengence.

It is sure amazing how much more advanced spring is in the Kent Valley than it is up here. In the valley most of the trees have tiny leaves coming on. Up here most are still totally bare. They may stay that way for quite some now.

[TT-SEA]

Strange... up at our new house (at 1,100 feet) there are LOTS of trees with leaves. Particularly in the last week.

We were in Maple Valley yesterday and LOTS of trees were blooming there as well.

[TT-SEA]

It looks like a "cold" day in Bellingham.

Currently 62 degrees and sunny. Its warmer up there than in Seattle!!

[Guest]

Yeah TT it's actually 63* now and I love it... Especially after a cold and frosty morning. The predicted high on my weather bug this morning was 55...

To everyone that is talking about how it was suppose to be in the low 50's early week...

If you havn't noticed, 3 days ago, sunday and monday brought the trough further west and the N to S pressure gradients were much more tightly compacted and thicknesses dropped to 528 by monday morning with stiff N winds... Now, thicknesses are only dropping to about 540. There are still pretty strong winds but it's not going to make the daytime as cold. So maybe some people need to pay attention to the short range GFS because it began showing that today, tomorrow and the next day aren't going to be as cold with each GFS run starting a couple days ago...

I am glad to have the really TT back... Get frusterated/mad...make some foolish and sarcastic comments. It's a good way for people to recognize you.

[Guest]

oh and by the way, the cherry blossoms are fully bloomed and are blowing off the trees and all around the roads everywhere... The Dafidils or however you spell them are already fully blooming in most places and so are the flowers in the medians downtown. I think the flower department skipped March and April and are skipping straight to May... THe way things are going now the flowers will be gone by the end of March.

[snow_wizzard]

Very true that the blossoms and all of that are out in Covington. I was talking about the cottonwood and maple trees. They are still buttoned up pretty tight. We got down to 30 last night, so they will continue to be reluctant to come on.

Brennan...You are not losing faith here are you? Everything still looks good to me.

[snow_wizzard]

I don't know about anyone else, but this sure looks a whole different than what we have been in. This is only 72 hours out. Look for brisk NW winds and sharp cooling late Tuesday.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_072m.htm

Keep in mind, the PNA has already dropped from +4 to -1. The weather will react sharply to that. You guys are way too pessimistic here!

[AnthonyC]

Another AWESOME day!! Dude, how long can this weather continue? I feel like I've moved down to San Diego or something. lol.

Tomorrow and Tuesday also look AWESOME...sunny with mild temperatures. I'm getting a little skeptical about this BIG pattern change. Don't get me wrong, something's going to change but I don't think it'll be drastic. Snow_Wizzard, I think you're getting your hopes up too much...you're only going to be disappointed.

But I guess only time will tell.

Anthony

A little cooler today...58F with perfect sunshine.

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...You are missing the sharp trough that is supposed to plunge in here late Tuesday. I think everyone will be convinced when that comes through. The main effect will be strong NW winds and dropping temps. I like those!

[W13]

Wow, it sure felt good to be below freezing this morning (we got down to 31F), for the first time in a very long time.

Currently, we have Sunny skies and a temperature of 59 F. Our high so far has been 60 F. The Dew Point is 30F with 33% Humidity. The winds today have been out of the NNW averaging around 6mph, and with a gust to 19mph.

[W13]

It is sure amazing how much more advanced spring is in the Kent Valley than it is up here. In the valley most of the trees have tiny leaves coming on. Up here most are still totally bare. They may stay that way for quite some now.

Same story here on the East Hill of Kent. The only things that are actually blooming are dafidils and other flowers, as well as the Cherry Trees. Most of the other trees still do not have leaves on them, and if they do they are only in the very begginning stages of their life.

[Guest]

Of course I am not losing faith. It's just it's not as cold here early week as it was suppose to be, and people are saying that the models were pointing towards it being highs around 50 on monday. The models have been backing off on that though the last 3 days.