Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

I'll never forget the December 1995 windstorm...that was a frickin' monster!! We had strong winds for almost a 12-hour period. Since alot of the houses in my neighborhood are surrounded by trees, a bunch of families met in one house and spent the night there...only house that was away from trees. It was crazy. You could hear the walls creak back and forth...you could hear all the branches snapping off the trees...you could see all the transformers blowing up in the sky...dude, at one point it looked like a lightning storm was moving through. Amazing storm. I'm trying to think...we lost power for about 16 hours with that storm. I remember we didn't have school the next day. We just don't get windstorms like that anymore.

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

I have a hard time remembering the Inauguration Day storm because I was only in kindergarden, but I do remember school was canceled early because we lost power. I also remember a tree falling right in front of the school. I think school was canceled two days because of that storm...and I think it was the only time we lost power for more than 24 hours.

[R-Dub]

I also remember the transformers blowing non stop most of that night of the Dec 1995 windstorm, it was just a constant flash in the dark sky that would flash into the dark house. We all huddled down in the basement because of the huge fur trees all around our house (neighbors trees that they have since removed, most of the ones that could go right through our house anyway) Just that deafing roar from the wind blowing though those trees at 80MPH were just amazing! Also the constant thud from big trees falling in the distance. We had no power for about 72hrs

[R-Dub]

I have a hard time remembering the Inauguration Day storm because I was only in kindergarden.

WOW........That makes me feel old, you were in Kindergarden, and I was already driving for a year when that storm hit

Currently 43.8 degrees and clear at 8:00PM

[snow_wizzard]

You guys are so right about the lack of windstorms. I remember some wicked ones in Nov 1983, Nov 1991, Jan 1993, and also Dec 1995. We have not had one like those since. We are DUE. The Nov 1991 storm was really amazing. It was so perfectly predicted that I was able to make it to the Kirkland waterfront just minutes before it hit. The wind was only about 15mph when I got there, but I could see transformers blowing in the distance. Within minutes the wind hit 70 mph and the entire town of Kirkland went dark just seconds later. It takes winters with a good mix of pineapple expresses and cold spells to make those kind of windstorms. We had experienced a very rare late October Arctic outbreak just a couple of weeks before the big windstorm in 1991.

By the way...Olympia had a high 14 degrees above normal today, after a low that was 9 degrees below normal! This weather is more like northern Nevada than anything we normally see.

[andycottle]

Hey Randy...if it makes you feel any older.....think I was in elementry school then...when that monster wind storm happened. -- Andy

PS: Another nice day today! Clear skies...well mostly clear anyway. Had some passing high cirrus clouds at times. My today was 64 with a low of 32.

[snow_wizzard]

The change is SO close, I can taste it now! The latest GFS is actually more vigous with the trough that is going to drop in tomorrow night. It shows the heights could drop to 528, with plunging 850mb temps, and strong onshore flow. This thing is starting to look pretty respectable. After cold showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, it should clear our for a cold night on Wednesday night. This time the 850mb temps stay pretty low, so cooler should be the word for the rest of the week. It's really happening!

[snow_wizzard]

Well I'll be dipped! The GFS is up to its old tricks again. It once again wants to show some low level Arctic seepage for us. By day 5 it shows us on the SW quadrant of deep cold trough digging down through western Canada. The surface pressure gradients and thickness values dropping to 528 would indicate some cold air could make it down to the Seattle area. I wish it would make up it's mind. At this time, I still have to say this is not decided. Being that I have learned my lesson about the abysmal performance of the GFS I will say, it is doubtful , but still possible. The ECMWF shows a similar scenario, but even that model has been dubious at times. Wouldn't it be fun to have the models err on the side of being too mild this time!

[TT-SEA]

Bring it on!!

[snow_wizzard]

Has somebody kidnapped the real TT?

[TT-SEA]

No... I just HATE being in a drought.

Sun is nice... to a point.

That is one of the reasons that we left Southern California. Too much sun... too much smog... and a dry landscape ripe for wildfire.

Of course they have none of those things this winter!!

[andycottle]

Latest 00z GFS tonight showing at least another day or two of nice sunny weather and temps in the lower 60`s. Then come Thursday evening of the 17th, a very cool and very showery trough of low pressure around 1000MB drops out of Northern BC and has 850MB heights in the 1350M range and temp of around -3C with westerly winds at 20kts. 500MB vorticity heights are about 522 to 528DM with westerly winds 40 to 45kts. After main front passes through, some light showers may linger during the early morning hours of the 18th, before a good NW flow developes later that day and through the 20th. With much cooler air over head, and a renewed drier airmass, should some below freezing night time temps.

In the longer range...about the 21st - 30th...we stay some what cool, but definally WET as some pretty rainy system hit us about every other day.
-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Andy... no offense but you are still mixing up days.

I always get confused when reading your forecasts.

The trough arrives Wednesday morning... not Thursday evening.

This is the 00Z run of the GFS for Wednesday morning at 10 a.m.

[andycottle]

Hey Tim...sorry if I get you and others confused when you read my forecasts. Guess I`m just getting my days mixed up like you said...
-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Thats cool.

[andycottle]

Hey thanks Tim. Maybe one of these days here I`ll finaly get them right when it comes to looking at weather maps.

[R-Dub]

Currently at 5:25AM its 39.7 degrees under mostly clear skies here in the LK Goodwin area.

[snow_wizzard]

It has begun! Cloudy in Covington this morning. There is still time for the naysayers on this pattern change to revise their votes!

The 0z and 6z runs both are really running away with this now. This is going to be a complete 180 degree pattern shift. The 6z is especially interesting in that it keeps us cool / cold through the entire 2 week period. This would spell massive amounts of snow in the mountains, and a mix of thundershowers, hail, graupel, and maybe a flake or two in the lowlands.

[TT-SEA]

I agree... it has started!!

[snow_wizzard]

Wow! The 12z run has really jumped on the idea of a very cold and deep trough digging down from Canada over the weekend. Right now it shows 850mb temps dropping below -6C, 850mb heights at a very low 1250 - 1290 meters, and 500mb heights at 522. Those numbers spell well below normal temps.

At this point it shows that continental cold air may be limited to Whatcom County, but the Seatle area should see substantial maritime polar air. The key to seeing temperatures go much below normal in Seattle will be if the N to S pressure gradient can make it this far south. Given the fact that the last three runs have all trended stronger on this trough, an even colder outcome is still possible. At any rate, this will be nothing short of an astounding pattern shift!