Does A Dry May Bring Florida Landfallers?

[tropicstorm]

I would like to find out more about the relationship and possible climatic link that may exist between an active Florida peninsula landfalling Atlantic hurricane season (like 2004) and a below average Florida rainfall pattern for the month of May preceeding that season. I have heard some discussions regarding a strong correlation that might exist here, not only for 2004 but, in most or all past Atlantic hurricane seasons when the Florida penisula took some direct hits. I suppose the explanation is that the Bermuda High sets early in a more dominant westerly pattern and results in stubborn high pressure over the peninsula during most of the month of May. When this pattern occurs, the Bermuda High generally stays in this more westrerly mode for most of the hurricane season (like 2004) and does not allow traversing storms to shoot the NW gap into the Carolinas or out to sea, thus directing these hurricanes westerly into the Florida peninsula.

Is this a scientifically proven and climatologically correct correlation? Is a dry Florida May some reliabe predictor for peninsula landfalling Atlantic storms?

[weatherwindow]

jim lushine at nws/mia....had posited the dry may theory shortly after andrew. the verification has been mixed. as i recall, it verified in three or four of the ten driest mays in miami records since the turn of the 20th century. i will have to pull up those numbers for you. the underlying premise seems to make sense but i suspect atmos relationships resulting in florida landfalls are far less straightforward and less explicable than may rainfall. but i will get those numbers again from jim

[StormChasr]

this a scientifically proven and climatologically correct correlation? Is a dry Florida May some reliabe predictor for peninsula landfalling Atlantic storms?

NO

[Anonymous]

IMHO, this summer is not starting at all like last... It seems to have changed last month as soon as the news stories came out about the Bermuda high not budging and there being a repeat of 2004. There were wildfires all over south fla just before the hurricane season in 2004 and a couple throughout the rest of the state--we have seen a lot more rain lately than last year and tonite will be another good shot of rain and even svr wx for Fla. There were no svr wx in fla last year before the canes. The bermuda high looks squashed and fronts are passing freely through. Last year no fronts got through at all as the high blocked them.

March 2004 Jax had 1.36in all month....A very dry March but we could see that much rain tonite alone under the heavier thunderstorms with most of March remaining.

I havent heard anyone come back and say we arent in the same pattern as last year but to me it looks like this storm shows it is different than last year.

[depotoo]

well - you may have your rain there - but we don't here! i think i heard we are down 12 in. even after all the storms!

[Scorpion]

There is no way to predict a Bermuda High 6 months from now. It definitely will change, either for better or worse. However, I believe that with the pattern we can see at least 1 close call or hit this year from a Cape Verde system.

[Rainband]

Unfortunately looks like florida is under the gun again this year. National Geographic, Summer of the Hurricanes was a good show. According to the showiwe are in a pattern that could last from 10-40 years. The pattern puts the SE at risk especially Florida. Does the pineapple express contibute to this?? Anyway. I hope we get spared this year. We need a break big time.

[StormChasr]

I have minimal meterological expertise, and defer totally to the pro Mets here, who are obviously well-versed. From a "climatic" standpoint, a repeat of 2004 might be possible, if the same conditions existed, obviously, and you folks know that possibility better than me. From my orientation as a probability mathematician (working as a professional code writer) with a Ph.D math background, the regression equations show the probability as almost nil ( a repeat of 2004 would amount to a 1 in 7 TRILLION event). However, weather doesn't always subscribe to equations.

[TampaFl]

[Scorpion]

The pattern doesn't need to duplicate last year. All you need is a Bermuda High, high SST's, low shear, moist air, and of course a TC, and theres another system for FL. Of course, the chances of all this occuring at once are still low, but not impossible.

[Rainband]

I am worried more about a GOM landfall. If Charley would have stayed his course last year,the west coast area's further north would have been decimated Imagine a Cat3 or 4 moving into Tampa bay

[StormChasr]

I am worried more about a GOM landfall. If Charley would have stayed his course last year,the west coast area's further north would have been decimated Imagine a Cat3 or 4 moving into Tampa bay

That would be an awful senario. Given the shallow bowl-like characteristics of Tampa Bay, an 18-20 foot storm surge would create havoc with the area. I am very familiar with that part of Florida, as my son lives in Sarasota.

Most of Pinnelas and half of Western Hillsboro County would be innundated, not to mention the Cities of Tampa, St. Pete, etc.

[Rainband]

I know I live a half of a mile from the coast in Pasco county. That scenario would be unthinkable. I am not wsihing storms on anyone but we don't need anymore.

[StormChasr]

I know I live a half of a mile from the coast in Pasco county. That scenario would be unthinkable. I am not wsihing storms on anyone but we don't need anymore.

I could not agree any more---we've had enouugh. I live 3 blocks from the Atlantic in the Daytona Area. While direct hits from the Atlantic side don't generally come in this area (they're further South), "rear-enders" are not unusual. Charley did a ton of damage here.

[cyclonaut]

The fact is that some areas will get struck more than others besed on geography & WX patterns.The Fla Panhandle,South Fla,LA & NC are the most likely areas in the continental US to be affected by TCs in any given season.On occasion TX,SC & others stand a chance of getting hit but every season those 1st four regions are the ones with the highest risk...Direct hits on North Fla & Georgia are very rare events.It can & will happen eventually but I would not hold my breath every season..The same can be said for the west/central coast of Fla(Tampa area)..On another note,in Aug & Sept if the Bermuda High isnt helping move hurricanes toward South Fla, trofs in Oct can pick up hurricanes & move them toward South Fla @ that time.As most of you know Oct is the month that offers the biggest threat to South Fla.People have been lulled to sleep because of the lack of hurricanes to have affected South Fla in the past few decaded (besided last season) but it will always be a region plagued with tropical storms & hurricanes.

[george_r_1961]

IMO the scenario this year might be something like this: A strong Bermuda high with a persistant EC trough. This means IMHO, that a storm approaching Florida from the east would recurve VERY close to the coast..if not a bit inland, then more or less follow the countour of the coastline up thru the Carolinas. I think the NC Outer Banks are as much under the gun this year as Florida, if not more so. The Delmarva, the Tidewater area of Virginia, Long Island, and New England also face a somewhat higher threat, as do the Canadian Maritimes. The threat to the GOM will increase later in the season, i.e. mid September, and there is an chance of an early season storm spinning off in the GOM along the tail of a frontal trough.

[StormChasr]

I agree with the NC coastline as the most statistically likely area, outside of Miami-Dade, and Monroe Counties in Florida. However, if the PAC keeps developing warmth, it may well be academic, as that will spur a stronger than anticipated El Nino event, and NOT neutral conditions.

[JQ Public]

its all politics

[caneman]

I am worried more about a GOM landfall. If Charley would have stayed his course last year,the west coast area's further north would have been decimated Imagine a Cat3 or 4 moving into Tampa bay

That would be an awful senario. Given the shallow bowl-like characteristics of Tampa Bay, an 18-20 foot storm surge would create havoc with the area. I am very familiar with that part of Florida, as my son lives in Sarasota.

Most of Pinnelas and half of Western Hillsboro County would be innundated, not to mention the Cities of Tampa, St. Pete, etc.

This is very true. Parts of downtown Tampa and St. PEte were under just from the a weakened backlash of Frances. Imagine a 130 mph storm moving towards us instead of away. Neve mind, I live here I don't want to go there.

[StormChasr]

Neve mind, I live here I don't want to go there.

I hear ya. My son lives in Sarasota.