Tropical Cyclone Isang (25S)

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 10:38 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1S2 85.7E0,
APPROXIMATELY 805 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED EN-
HANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OF THE
LLCC. A 290007Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH ENHANCED FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

Looks good, let see if it persists.

#2 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:37 am

29/0830 UTC 10.2S 85.3E T1.0/1.0 90S -- South Indian Ocean

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:24 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
85.7E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7 84.6E8, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS SURFACE CLOUD LINES BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS UNDERNEATH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZATED EVEN THOUGH IT'S SHORT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT IT HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED CDO OVER ITS PRESUMED CENTER.

#4 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 5:05 pm

Isang is next on the list. 20kts 10 min averages.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 17-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 29 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 10.4 SUD / 84.4 EST
(DIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3270 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 16 KM/H.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:32 pm

29/2030 UTC 10.3S 85.0E T1.5/1.5 90S -- South Indian Ocean

THIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IF THE CURRENT ORGANZATION TREND CONTINUES.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:23 pm

WTXS21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300151ZMAR2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S7 84.6E8 TO 12.6S9 77.1E5 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292330Z9
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 83.3E4.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7
84.6E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 83.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FORMATION OF
A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDERNEATH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE, AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310200Z6.//

TROPICS SHOULD REACTIVATE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS!

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #7 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:22 pm

TD 17R sure is looking pretty good.

Tropical Depression Noname (17R/90S) (30/00Z)
Position: 10.3S 84.0E (785 mi ESE of Diego Garcia)
Movement: WSW at 7 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1001 mb / 29.55"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:44 pm

30/0230 UTC 10.7S 85.8E T1.5/1.5 90S -- South Indian Ocean

DVORAK NUMBERS REMAIN THE SAME BUT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK MUCH BETTER ORGANIZATED IN EVERY NEW IMAGE.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:56 am

WTXS21 PGTW 300930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 300921ZMAR2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZMAR2005//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 300200). THE AREA OF CON-
VECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 83.3E4 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S6 85.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT CON-
VECTION OVER THE LLCC AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//

ANOTHER UNEXPECTED POOF, SHEAR WAS TO GREAT FOR THE POOR CIRCULATION.

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Mar 30, 2005 7:38 am

Hmm, haven't seen it looking like this before:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #11 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Mar 30, 2005 1:09 pm

MFR still expects 17R to become a cyclone...

Tropical Depression Noname (17R/90S) (30/12Z)
Position: 11.3S 84.1E
Movement: W at 13 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 30, 2005 10:08 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6
85.8E1, HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S5 82.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONV-
ECTION OVER A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAV-
ORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.

#13 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 7:13 am

20kts.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 17-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 11.0 SUD / 81.5 EST
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2955 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 18 KM/H.

#14 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:07 pm

25kts.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 17-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.8 SUD / 79.2 EST
(ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2690 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 18 KM/H.

#15 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:25 am

25kts. Invest 91S isn't strong enough yet for an alert to be issued.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 17-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 12.2 SUD / 78.7 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2625 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 5:59 am

01/0830 UTC 13.5S 78.8E TOO WEAK 90S -- South Indian Ocean

NOW GOES BACK TO COMA STATUS!

James · #17 Postby **James** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:07 am

It's the system that can't make up its mind.

#18 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:51 am

2kts

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 17-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.0 SUD / 73.9 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-TREIZE DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2070 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 14 KM/H.

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 12:39 pm

WILL LA REAUNION/MAURITIUS BE AGAIN "IN THE EYE OF THE STORM"?

#20 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 5:37 am

30kts. Now a TD.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 17-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.7 SUD / 71.5 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE ET ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1800 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

Tropical Cyclone Isang (25S)

Tropical Cyclone Isang (25S)

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