Finnally better weather in Puerto Rico (Edited)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
818 AM AST WED MAY 18 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE...
NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE

* UNTIL 10:15 AM AST

* AT 8 AM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SCATTERED
STRONG AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
WATERS MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...AND MOVING ASHORE BETWEEN CABO ROJO
AND PONCE...AS WELL AS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35
KNOTS AND GREATER...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT GROUND TO WATER
LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO ON TORRENTIAL RAIN.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY
FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS. SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THIS AREA ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN IN PROTECTED WATERS THIS MORNING UNTIL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

[msbee]

I was just looking at the PR radar and was amazed to see all the yellows. the whole island is covered.
this has gone on for days.
even The Weather Channel covered PR last night before they covered the Pacific storm.
how long can this go on for you guys?
It must be a mess there!

[cycloneye]

I was just looking at the PR radar and was amazed to see all the yellows. the whole island is covered.
this has gone on for days.
even The Weather Channel covered PR last night before they covered the Pacific storm.
how long can this go on for you guys?
It must be a mess there!

Imagine if some of the leftovers of that Pacific storm makes it close to this area.

[msbee]

well,not to wish anything bad for anyone else, but I sure hope the remnants do not come anywhere near PR.
you cannot take it at this point!
I would love to see those rain totals when you get a chance to post them, Luis
Barbara

[cyclonaut]

Just saw on the news the extensive flooding that has taken place in San Juan..I was also thinking about the problems that whatever is left over from Adrian could bring.

Hopefully the brunt of that will bypass PR to the NW.

[cycloneye]

This is preliminary data as the rain event continues.

Rainfall totals since May 10:

El Yunque=11.06 inches
Fajardo=9.65
Naguabo=9.26
Corozal=8.78
Utuado=8.12
Orocovis=8.03
Juncos=7.34
San Juan=5.98

And more to come.I will keep informing on what is going on here.

[Stephanie]

I saw on TWC this morning the flooding that was occuring in Puerto Rico Luis! I thought of you immediately!

How are YOU doing?

[cycloneye]

I saw on TWC this morning the flooding that was occuring in Puerto Rico Luis! I thought of you immediately!

How are YOU doing?

Dont worrie Steph as I am safe and dry of a 5th floor condo .

[caribepr]

Glad you are dry Luis! It's been slow steady rain until about 5 minutes ago. With the wacky wind, the windows I never close were wide open and my bed is soaked, the garden is washing out and the yard is under water. This is the FIRST five minutes. Who turned on the fire hose??? Oh well, at least the windows closed all right!

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 182035
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 PM AST WED MAY 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFFECTING OR INFLUENCING THE
LOCAL WEATHER INCLUDED A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND ANOTHER SMALLER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE BEST MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS THE ECMWF WHICH SLOWLY DEVELOPS THESE SURFACE
FEATURES WITH A GENERAL EAST NORTHEAST DRIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP THESE FEATURES TOO QUICKLY.

FOR SHORTER TERM FEATURES...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR RETURNS
TODAY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WAS
CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND
MAINTAINED A MAINLY EASTWARD...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THAT...DRIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WAS MAINLY JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AS IT DRIFTED EASTWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH IT. THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO
AND HAS RESULTED IN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO THIS EVENING AND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THE MARINE CONDITIONS...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT. THE GFS
SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE...I.E. TOO HIGH AND HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. THE BIGGEST MARINE HAZARDS WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE NEAR THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS.


Not much relieve from all the rain but at least a little respite tonight.

[caribepr]

We are in the respite stage but it was like a mini hurricane here, total white out (I'm talking, couldn't see five feet for the rain). My yard, hours later, is still underwater. Respite is good. Repeat five times.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IMPROVED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT HAS
INDUCED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION HAS SHIFTED
N AND NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL THUS BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY...WITH AMPLE LLVL
MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A BIT OF MORNING
SUNSHINE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EVENING
RAINFALL...AND PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A S TO SW SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE EPAC NE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND INTO THE SW ATLC. SW LLVL
WINDS WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY FOCUS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL SLOPES OF P.R. AND THEN SHIFT ENE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE SSW LLVL
FLOW...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOVE NE ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS OF P.R. A
WEAKER WIND FLOW ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NE CARIB WILL TEND TO
YIELD LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT WITH THE CURRENT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...RAIN CHANCES THERE ARE
STILL 50-50.

THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS
ATYPICAL SW LLVL WIND FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS
NOT BRINGING AN END TO THIS UNUSUAL FLOW UNTIL THURSDAY THE 26TH.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR EXPLOSIVE ACTIVITY...AS
MENTIONED...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...AND SURFACE PRESSURE VERY LOW...WITH THE SAN JUAN AIRPORT
DROPPING BELOW 1008 MB OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH
THE RECENT RAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EPISODES OF WIDESPREAD
URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED...THEN LEADING TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RIVER
FLOODING. LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH. ALL FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED OVERNIGHT...BUT SMALLER AREAS
MAY SEE WATCHES REISSUED LATER IN THE DAY.

Although the typical diurnal afternoon showers will develop it is nothing compared with what we went thru in the past 2 weeks as the trough is moving away.And this morning YES !!!!! THE SUN !! is out although not brillant because of some middle and high clouds. The effect of the rain event was over 50 families in refuges,Roads not passable as some mudslides occured but no reports of deaths occured.

[caribepr]

In the afternoon after our *event* we were at the bar and a tourist says they hiked over to Carlos Rosario (a beach you have to walk a long way to get to). A local asked if they had a difficult time getting there. The tourist said, No, not really, just had to get around that river. The local said...Uh, there are no rivers on Culebra. But there were yesterday!
Yes Luis, the sun! Beautiful!

[msbee]

no rivers in Culebra huh?
that's funny!
the first words from the discussion:
"improved weather" bring a smile to my face!
I am so happy for you guys in the PR area.
it's about time!