Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Looks like the new run of the GFS tonight is still locked on to a zonal flow come about mid-week. This zonal flow appears to last through at least the next couple weeks with a small trough entering our area by around the 13th, and then a couple more by later on on in the longer range period. GEM model also shows a trough, but a much deeper one by the 13th.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Thanks for the tip on the GEM Andy! I forgot to look at that one.

Tomorrow is a huge question mark for how much it will rain. The ETA MM5 is very wet and the GFS MM5 is dry. We shall see. I am going to bet .25 to .35 for Sea - Tac.

[andycottle]

Your welcome, snow wizzard. I`m going to say that tomorrow will be dry for the most part, but I can`t rule out on seeing a few spotty showers.

[snow_wizzard]

You aren't kidding that the GEM is deeper on that trough. That thing is a monster!

[andycottle]

Yeah, that trough looks pretty big. In fact, it appears that all of the longer range models this morning agree on bringing it into the PNW sometime around the 13th. Canadain GEM and ECMWF seem to be the most deepest of the models and actually keep it spinning around our region for a couple days or so. Hmmmm....this could spell a couple very wet days. However, GFS and MRF has the trough quickly leaving the area by sometime on the 14th.

-- Andy

[weather girl]

I think Anthony will have to wait for his pattern change. This has been such a weird year, but I do believe the summer pattern we're in nationwide now is just getting started.

That's not to say we won't have some nice days this summer. Our nicest, driest days generally occur between July 11th and August 11th. After this summer's in the books, I'll bet it's quite normal and average....although June may be a little on the cool, rainy side. (In Salem, we're almost half way to our average June precip total.)

But I refuse to get off the fence about August. That's a tough one to call right now.

[snow_wizzard]

Once again, cyclonic northerly flow has brought a November like gloom to the Seattle area. The moisture band over southern B.C. will mean thickening high and mid level clouds through the day, eventually leading to rain. The thick low clouds probably won't even have a chance to break before the higher clouds take over. We have flow pattern from three different directions...low clouds moving in from the SW, 850mb winds from the WNW, and higher clouds moving in from the NNE. That means one definitely gloomy and cool day. It will be interesting to see how all of this comes together for rainfall amounts.

[snow_wizzard]

ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPS POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME HINT OF BIG RIDGE BUILDING MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST. COULD BE THE FIRST BIG RIDGE OF SUMMER. BURKE

Could someone please tell me where this supposed ridge is? I see nothing but trough for days on end!

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

I was gonna say the same thing...where is this NWS meteorologist seeing a big ridge? Latest models show no sign of any sort of ridge within the next two weeks...what was he smokin'?!

As for our weather...pretty miserable for the middle of June. It's currently 56F with grey conditions...a little drizzle...it feels/looks like the middle of February. This is ridiculuous for the middle of June...Summer is only a week away!

Looking at latest satellite pics, very interesting surface low located in Canada...instead of moving in a westerly direction which is typical, it's moving in a northeasterly direction...very rare. The cyclonic flow around the low has reintroduced clouds/rainfall into the forecast for the next couple of days...and COLD weather for this time of year...10F below normal.

And latest models show no real pattern change in the forseeable future. We really need some sun.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Wow!! The radar is really coming alive now. I have never seen a flow pattern like this! The moisture is coming in out of the NNE from Canada and then it turn to a NW flow south of Bellingham. After that is actually dead ends in Pierce County and is actually beginning to back up, thus creating some pretty heavy rainfall in King and Pierce Counties. I have no idea how much rain we may see out of this. There could be some locally heavy amounts with all of the twists and turns in the flow pattern.

[andycottle]

Anthony, Snow wizzard... I see no big ridge heading toward us either. No a ridge near us to be seen. And the latest models show no real change of any short for at least a couple weeks. In fact, zonal flow will be the key player in our weather. However, GFS has now backed off on the trough by a couple days...and now brings the 552DM trough right over our region on or around the 16th/17th. ECMWF seems to be tagging on to the idea of it coming in later than sooner. As of from earlier this morning, Canadain GEM and MRF still has it timed to come in around the 13th. Either way, this could be a very wet and somewhat coolish area of low pressure moving through our region.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

UNBELIEVABLE!

It is pouring in Covington...Yet again. It looks like a rare C Zone has set up on the King / Piece County line. How much more weird can this year get?

[andycottle]

No rain here, but did have a quick shower around 6:30p.m this evening though. Wasn`t even enough to add up in my rain gage. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

You would think with a westerly direction, the areas downwind to the Olympics would be under a rainshadow...but in this case this downslopping effect is increasing precipitation rates. Very odd.

[andycottle]

Looks like tomorrow could be bit of wet and some what of a cool day as NAM model is showing a weak 1008MB low/impulse being over us to give Western Wa., plenty of showers. Total precip amounts over a 12 period are around .76" of rain. However, GFS has MUCH lighter amounts to almost dry, while the MM5 models shows dry weather over the lowlands and just a few showers over the Cascades. None the less, some places could be rainy and others just having a cloudy day. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

As brief ridging moves in... lets review statistically where we are at in Seattle.

Sea-Tac has not had a single day below 60 degrees this month. It has been below normal but nothing dramatic at all.

Sea-Tac has received .16 for the month (significantly below nomal). With nothing but a cold trough for the whole month.

The BIG storm last night produced .12 of rain.

Here in North Bend... I have not had a day below 60 degrees and I received .62 of rain for the month. That is actually below normal out here as well.

We are REALLY going to have to get lucky to reach that "magical" 2.40 inches that Snow_Wizzard wants!!

[andycottle]

Not seeing any kind of big ridge anytime soon, and infact, latest GFS and ECMWF show the nearly zonal flow continuing through at least the next couple weeks. What I do see is that there will be some inbeded weak troughs that come slidling through our area every few days or so that will give us showers at times. And looks like we maybe could be seeing a pretty good rain maker in the long term period as a 546DM(1009MB Low) spins closely off the Wa/OR coast on or around the 19th that could possibly give us plenty of shower activity. Also could be bit of a cool system as 850MB temps are around +3C and heights of 1380M. So we`ll see how it plays out.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Good early evening folks.

Looking at the latest models....a nearly zonal flow will continue well into this weekend with a small trough coming through our area by around mid-late sunday, followed by another weaker trough coming into our area by sometime on monday. These two troughs should just have a few light showers with them. In fact, 12 to 24hr total precip amounts only showing .25" or less.

After these troughs come through, looks like we`ll be in kinda of a zonal flow again and no real exciting weather systems to speak of till late in the period. And by that I mean...the next system, in what appears to be a rather deep and large trough, should put a good does of rain over us by aronnd the 17th/18th time frame. 24hr precip amounts have .75" to near an inch of rain. This one could actually pack somewhat of a punch as this low has a pressure gradient of 996MB. 850MB heights quite low for this late in the season to which the GFS is showing 1350 to 1380M with temp of about +3C. 500MB heights are near 546DM. The brunt or main enery of the trough appears to head toward the Vancouver B.C coast line as a 1000MB low. Looks like they`ll get there share of showers to. GEM and MRF model also hinting at the deep trough by late next week. Maybe a few thunder storm after the passage of the trough, BUT MUCH TO EARLY to call that out just yet. In the much longer range... looks like quite a series of troughs/areas of low pressure hitting our area about every 3 or 4 days or so.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

It's been raining...albeit light...all day. This is miserable weather for June 8th. We need a pattern change...quick. This weather is depressing.

Looking at latest guidance, a weak zonal pattern continues for the next 10 days. Thankfully it's the middle of June so no big systems coming our way...though, a zonal flow this late in the season is atypical. Bottom line...showers/sunbreaks and seasonal temperatures.

But hey, Summer is almost here and I'll be in Cabo SanLucas and Hawaii...that should guarantee some sunny/warm weather!

TT-SEA,

You keep saying temperatures have not been that cool this month...I tend to disagree...it's been stuck at 58, 59F for the past four/five days...I say that's pretty cold for this time of year...average high should be close to 70F.

Anthony

[andycottle]

Bit of a drizzely day here to....but very light. Very little sunshine as it was only able to shine dimly through the thick clouds at times. My high today was 59 with a low of 50.

-- Andy