More westerly componet in the track now?

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dhweather
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More westerly componet in the track now?

#1 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:37 pm

I'm watching the visible loop - it looks like the overall motion is more NNW now than it was. Anyone else?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby sponger » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:43 pm

looks due North here! I am getting blob itis so who knows
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#3 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:44 pm

I think the center's right on 85/25. It's kind of a wobble thing. You ought to be getting a really nice band through in a few minutes. I'm hoping it holds out until it gets here as well. We only saw the one this morning between 8:15-8:30.

Steve
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#4 Postby Droop12 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:45 pm

I would think so to also. IMO it should start gaining a more westerly component soon. It cant just keep moving North into a ridge. As Derek said early, the weakness in the Ridge is over in MS/AL, so Im still going with landfall in line with what the NHC is saying.
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#5 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:46 pm

The NW movement should start soon because as you can see the storm is starting to tilt towards the NW.
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#6 Postby Droop12 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:55 pm

Dare I say the center is fully under the convection for the time being? Looks like maybe the start up of a new flare up of convection right near the center. Too bad I have work from 3pm-9pm today. Im thinking possibly a slowdown in intensification tonight and as she nears the coast tomorrow another quick shot at intensifying. But thats all a gut feeling. Tropical storms seem to do that near landfall, Bill, Barry, Claudette, Isidore? so its possible. JMO
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#7 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:57 pm

I don't know if my eyes are tired or what , but I swear I can see another blowup of convection with a rotation WNW of the storm. Look on the latest vis loop at about 26.5N 86.5W. Is that just another one of those little old circulation centers spinning out from the storm?
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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:58 pm

I agree drop tihs thing is now under the convection. The radar shows a nice banding forming around this.
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#9 Postby duris » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:13 pm

Steve wrote:I think the center's right on 85/25. It's kind of a wobble thing. You ought to be getting a really nice band through in a few minutes. I'm hoping it holds out until it gets here as well. We only saw the one this morning between 8:15-8:30.

Steve


Looking out my southeast facing window downtown, looks like you'll soon get your wish, lol
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#10 Postby sunny » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:16 pm

duris wrote:
Steve wrote:I think the center's right on 85/25. It's kind of a wobble thing. You ought to be getting a really nice band through in a few minutes. I'm hoping it holds out until it gets here as well. We only saw the one this morning between 8:15-8:30.

Steve


Looking out my southeast facing window downtown, looks like you'll soon get your wish, lol


Yep. Just looked.
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#11 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:18 pm

duris wrote:
Steve wrote:I think the center's right on 85/25. It's kind of a wobble thing. You ought to be getting a really nice band through in a few minutes. I'm hoping it holds out until it gets here as well. We only saw the one this morning between 8:15-8:30.

Steve


Looking out my southeast facing window downtown, looks like you'll soon get your wish, lol


Just saw a live feed from downtown New Orleans, could see that rainband very well! I'm hoping it sticks together long enough to reach me, I'll take all the rain I can get b/c it's going to dry up after Arlene moves away.
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#12 Postby TS Zack » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:20 pm

Yes, I am just South of NO and we just went through a nice little squall. Good Introduction.
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#13 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:21 pm

Looks a little west-er to me... And, I think, getting a good wrap going on the NW.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastvis.html
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#14 Postby duris » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:23 pm

Nothing heavy yet with this band (as I type that, it picked up of course). Pretty steady but not significant wind blowing. I'll try and send some your way because we've had our share the past week or two.
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#15 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:23 pm

Arlene's rainbands in the northern gulf are REALLY pushing westward now, could be an indication of the influence of the ridge. She's bound to start a more NW movement anytime now, that is if it's going to follow the forecast path...
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#16 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:26 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Arlene's rainbands in the northern gulf are REALLY pushing westward now, could be an indication of the influence of the ridge. She's bound to start a more NW movement anytime now, that is if it's going to follow the forecast path...


And looking further east over the Atlantic, things are certainly moving east to west. At least that's what I'm seeing...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastvis.html
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#17 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:30 pm

Wish I understood more about what is depicted here. Perhaps someone might elaborate on what's supposed to push Arlene more westerly?

Image
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#18 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:30 pm

Slightly more NW, but still within the forecasted cone, right?
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#19 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:34 pm

I tend toagree also. Just checking out the latest sat. loops of the NW ATL. and it looks as though the high is still digging in. I can't tell how strong it is but looks strong enough to push the storm more west as it starts to bump into the ridge the more north it gets. Also seem to be fighting off the dry air to the west pretty good by dragging moist ATL air across Florida into the GOM.
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#20 Postby LSU2001 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:39 pm

Yeah I think Ya'll are right, she does seem to be pointing more westerly.
I guess her mother didn't teacher her it's not polite to point :lol:
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