Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005

THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MODEST CONVECTIVE
BANDING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z INCLUDED A 2.0 FROM TAFB
AND 1.5 FROM AFWA. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD
CIRCULATION ABOUT AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH WE BELIEVE HAS
TIGHTENED UP SOME SINCE THEN. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT
ON THE THIN SIDE...THERE IS ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8. THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAK RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PAST THE 26C ISOTHERM AND RESPONDING TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW BAM TRENDS
THEREAFTER.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT RATE IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOING SO BY 72
HOURS. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM
UP TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.7N 102.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 103.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.2N 107.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

[cycloneye]

Depression Two-E Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 21:00Z on June 21, 2005



tropical depression center located near 13.7n 102.1w at 21/2100z
position accurate within 45 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1006 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.7n 102.1w at 21/2100z
at 21/1800z center was located near 13.6n 101.7w

forecast valid 22/0600z 14.0n 103.4w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 22/1800z 14.5n 105.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...100ne 0se 0sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 23/0600z 15.2n 107.2w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...100ne 30se 30sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 23/1800z 16.0n 109.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...100ne 30se 30sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 24/1800z 17.5n 112.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 20se 20sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 25/1800z 18.0n 116.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 26/1800z 18.0n 119.0w...dissipating
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.7n 102.1w

next advisory at 22/0300z

forecaster Knabb/Franklin

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like

Atlatnic
ONE

Pacific
Two

Who has the ball next?

Wow it takes energy out of the Eastern Pacific into the southern BOC. Gfdl!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[Andrew92]

Well this will be something interesting to track over the next few days. No storm-free June like last year.

We determined that when Arlene formed.

-Andrew92

[vbhoutex]

Matt I don't believe it takes any energy out of the EPAC. I think what you are seeing is the N end of the TW that is expected in that area later this week which is now in the E Caribbean.

[James]

Well this will be something interesting to track over the next few days. No storm-free June like last year.

We determined that when Arlene formed.

-Andrew92

Oh, I just meant in the E. Pacific, lol.

[dhweather]

Some of the models (MM5 included) have hinted at a system developing over
the Yucatan at the end of the week, but it's too early to say, and I'd
like to see a model consensus.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Blast. 2-1 lead for the E-Pac now. Looks like they're ready for what we've got this season. It's gonna be a wild ride until November 30.

By the way, why won't my scoreboard avatar work?

[Swimdude]

Why does anyone care about the EPAC ????

Because... Because... Weather is weather.

[senorpepr]

Blast. 2-1 lead for the E-Pac now. Looks like they're ready for what we've got this season. It's gonna be a wild ride until November 30.

By the way, why won't my scoreboard avatar work?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=64921

Unfortunately GreatOne copied our ProMet Avatar and used it to try and fool people. I felt I had no other short term option than to disable all off-site avatars to prevent this from happening in the future. If you have an avatar that you like to use please e-mail it to me with your username and I'll upload it for you.

Sorry that a troll has caused this change.

[senorpepr]

Why does anyone care about the EPAC ????

Because, believe it or not, there are people who are effected by storms outside of the Atlantic basin, to include the EPAC.

This is tropics forum, not an Atlantic tropics forum. We follow storms all over the globe. This practice helps us better understand the power behind these storms even when the Atlantic is quiet.

If you don't care about the EPAC, why are you looking in an EPAC thread?

[Andrew92]

Why does anyone care about the EPAC ????

Because, believe it or not, there are people who are effected by storms outside of the Atlantic basin, to include the EPAC.

This is tropics forum, not an Atlantic tropics forum. We follow storms all over the globe. This practice helps us better understand the power behind these storms even when the Atlantic is quiet.

If you don't care about the EPAC, why are you looking in an EPAC thread?

Pauline come to mind much? 1997 for those who don't remember.

-Andrew92

[senorpepr]

Here's a 21/1730Z MODIS image from the Terra satellite:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... 00.1km.jpg

[senorpepr]

Here's a 21/2030Z MODIS image from the Aqua satellite:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... 00.1km.jpg

[cycloneye]

Another view of TD2-E this time from Floater 1.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

O wow the convection has become alot deeper. In also why don't we treat the Eastern Pacific like we do treat the Atantic. I care about the same about both.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (EP022005) ON 20050622 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050622 0000 050622 1200 050623 0000 050623 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 13.8N 102.6W 14.8N 105.6W 16.0N 108.7W 16.9N 111.9W

BAMM 13.8N 102.6W 14.7N 105.2W 15.9N 107.9W 16.9N 110.8W

LBAR 13.8N 102.6W 14.7N 104.9W 16.2N 107.6W 17.9N 110.3W

SHIP 30KTS 41KTS 50KTS 56KTS

DSHP 30KTS 41KTS 50KTS 56KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050624 0000 050625 0000 050626 0000 050627 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.6N 115.0W 18.6N 120.3W 19.5N 123.3W 20.8N 123.5W

BAMM 17.8N 113.8W 19.2N 118.7W 20.5N 121.6W 22.4N 122.1W

LBAR 19.3N 112.7W 21.6N 116.0W 23.5N 116.9W 25.2N 114.8W

SHIP 59KTS 53KTS 40KTS 29KTS

DSHP 59KTS 53KTS 40KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 102.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 100.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 99.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM









[senorpepr]

O wow the convection has become alot deeper. In also why don't we treat the Eastern Pacific like we do treat the Atantic. I care about the same about both.

I feel that way about all the world's cyclone basins. Far away tropical cyclones do have an impact to our economy. For example, Tropical Cyclone Gafilo in Mar 2004 struck the northeast coast of Madagascar at 160 mph -- category five on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. They export over one third of their goods, including coffee, vanilla, shellfish, sugar, cotton, chromite, and oil, to the US. Gafilo single-handedly caused a large increase in the price of vanilla for the US.

[cycloneye]

21/2345 UTC 13.7N 102.4W T1.5/1.5 TWO-E -- East Pacific Ocean

[dhweather]

O wow the convection has become alot deeper. In also why don't we treat the Eastern Pacific like we do treat the Atantic. I care about the same about both.

Most people only care about what directly impacts them.

As the old saying goes - "What has that got to do with the price of tea in China"

A whole lot if you drink Chinese tea, and a cat 5 slams them.