Interesting....very Interesting

[Guest]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 031812
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE 16 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS ACTIVE SEA
BREEZES INTERACT WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES AND A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. 1 KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WITH PLENTY OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY BECAUSE THE MOST
RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT PICKED UP THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
THE YUCATAN VERY WELL. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS JUST SHOW A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING WEST INTO MEXICO, WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR A
WEAK SYSTEM STEERED BY LOW LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL BE STEERED BY A DEEPER LAYER
FLOW, WHICH WOULD TEND TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAND BREEZES BECOME ACTIVE, AND
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND. WE EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY MONDAY WITH THE 1000-
700 MB MEAN FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST (SIMILAR TO TODAY). THIS IS
USUALLY A FAIRLY WET PATTERN FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS. HOPEFULLY MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
THE FIREWORKS, AND OUR EVENING POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE SO MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO AFTER SUNSET. THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A REDUCTION IN POP FOR TUESDAY, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE
MODELS BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER, WE MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY DRIER
BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL SUBSIDENCE THAT SURROUNDS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO MAKE THAT FINE A FORECAST WITH SO MANY UNANSWERED
QUESTIONS, SO WE WENT WITH NEAR-CLIMATOLOGY POP, AND A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS IN CASE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN BY GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...
THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF AND PENINSULAR FLORIDA. THIS
WILL PLACE OUR AREA UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER US. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO
FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, SO THE NEAR-CLIMATOLOGY MOS POP (WHICH IS ALREADY NEAR THE
ANNUAL PEAK) LOOKS REASONABLE...AS DO THE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN) DEVELOPING MORE THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS AND
MAKING LANDFALL A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAN THE ETA FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW UNTIL TUESDAY, WHEN
THEY MAY COME UP AS A BIT WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR WITH SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MVFR
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KVLD AND IN ANY AREAS
LADEN WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM TODAYS STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 75 91 73 92 / 30 60 20 50
PANAMA CITY 78 89 76 87 / 30 60 30 50
DOTHAN 75 91 75 85 / 30 60 20 50
ALBANY 75 92 74 90 / 30 60 20 50
VALDOSTA 74 92 73 91 / 30 60 20 50
CROSS CITY 74 91 73 92 / 30 60 20 50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

$$

FOURNIER/BLOCK

[timNms]

Starting to sound like the discussion from Jackson, MS.

[frederic79]

I agree. Always tricky where it'll end up given timing of troughs and fronts as well as a stall not forecast originally witht his system. I can't wait to see the revised NHC forecast track at 10pm. I suspect a slight shift to the east.

[gkrangers]

Also take into acount that discussion is 6 hours old, before the TD was classified. The ones late tonight will have newer info.