Recon Reports Dennis

[gkrangers]

Remember, the right side is the stronger side, especially the RFQ (right front quadrant). Possible they find stronger winds there.

[Derek Ortt]

I've seen a 45KT wind at FL just east of the center... still looks like a 35-40KT TS based upon the wind reports

[gkrangers]

Probably get an upgrade to 45MPH then.

[skysummit]

He's just getting started.

[cycloneye]

When it slows down then the storm will begin a more rapid intensification phase.

[Derek Ortt]

cyc,

the fast motion has nothing to do with this not intensifying. The center just has yet to consolidate, though it seems to be. Allen and Ivan both moved much faster than this and they became quite powerful

[Brent]

Guess the winds and pressure haven't responded yet to that convection burst.

[clfenwi]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 052236
XXAA 55227 99138 70682 04338 99007 25223 22528 00062 24821 22527
92745 21634 23527 85475 17632 22529 70116 09625 21522 88999 77999
31313 09608 82216
61616 NOAA3 WX04A DENNIS OB 09
62626 WL150 22027 085 DLM WND 23027 006657 MBL WND 23030=
XXBB 55228 99138 70682 04338 00007 25223 11992 24416 22877 19040
33677 07822 44657 068//
21212 00007 22528 11993 22025 22983 22532 33961 23532 44889 24030
55846 22529 66764 23526 77717 20021 88657 22523
31313 09608 82216
61616 NOAA3 WX04A DENNIS OB 09
62626 WL150 22027 085 DLM WND 23027 006657 MBL WND 23030=

2236Z
13.8 North
68.2 West
SLP 1007 mb
surface winds 28 knots from 225

[gkrangers]

Well Recon is going to be in there for hours, so if this burst of convection persists, I'm sure we'll see strenghthening.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: NOAA3
Observation Number: 08
Time: 2209Z
Latitude: 14.2°N
Longitude: 68.2°W
Location: 169 mi NE of Oranjestad, Aruba
Minimum height at NA
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: ENE (70°) @ 48 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 62 mi N (4°)
Sea level pressure: 1001 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 46°F at 1726 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 46°F at 1594 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 46°F
Eye character: POORLY DEFINED
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 1/ 7 NM
MAX FLT LVL WIND 29 KT N QUAD AT 05/2200Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 650 MB.

[Normandy]

These recon reports are shocking....i would have never guessed Dennis to be this weak.

[chris_fit]

4mb Pressure drop in a short period of time... winds will catch up.

[Normandy]

4mb Pressure drop in a short period of time... winds will catch up.

Good point.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Don't be discouraged... Dennis the Menace is merely playing tricks. Once Recon gets into the deepedt CDO areas, we'll see some higher winds. They just have to report from the right places.
The good thing is they will get a really good fix on the center and the surrounding environment for the models to go with during their next runs.
Plus, as long as they have to stay out there, there is a really good chance that Dennis will be rapidly strengthening as they are pulling figures out of the air - literally!

[Derek Ortt]

they're flying at 650mb?

If so, the likely reduction would be 95-105%; thus, winds are likely in the 40-45KT range

[cycloneye]

they're flying at 650mb?

If so, the likely reduction would be 95-105%; thus, winds are likely in the 40-45KT range

That may be the trick.

[gkrangers]

Interesting that they are flying that high through the center.

[Ola]

Interesting that they are flying that high through the center.

high? I thought that would be low.

[clfenwi]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 052327
XXAA 55217 99142 70680 04348 99005 24419 18010 00047 24218 17511
92728 21002 27009 85457 17009 32507 70103 11010 06007 88999 77999
31313 09608 82057
61616 NOAA3 WX04A DENNIS OB 11
62626 SPL 1416N06803W 2102 WL150 17010 085 DLM WND 36004 004655 M
BL WND 16008=
XXBB 55218 99142 70680 04348 00005 24419 11992 23613 22952 22008
33934 21802 44836 16808 55681 09806 66655 072//
21212 00005 18010 11980 16010 22947 16002 33923 28510 44919 31011
55816 34510 66809 33513 77771 02010 88758 00510 99741 01013 11655
11512
31313 09608 82057
61616 NOAA3 WX04A DENNIS OB 11
62626 SPL 1416N06803W 2102 WL150 17010 085 DLM WND 36004 004655 M
BL WND 16008=

2327Z
14.2 North
68.0 West
SLP 1005 mb
winds 10 knots from 180

[gkrangers]

Interesting that they are flying that high through the center.

high? I thought that would be low.

I'm not sure...when they say 650mb, I thought they meant the 650mb flight level..which equates to around 12,000 feet. I'm probably wrong tho.